NwWhiteOut Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Hey things are looking up. Here is a Christmas snowstorm showing up on the 18z! Oh man that is such a tease!!!!!! I wouldn't even be looking at that if I were you, we will probly be baking in the sun and in the 60's with the way things are going so far lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 00z GFS was a very frigid run tonight. The storm dropping down from the north at 156 looks a bit strange. It goes on to form a low in the southeast. After 276 the Arctic gates open up and towards the end of the run, even colder air is spilling southward. No Christmas storm this run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 00z GFS was a very frigid run tonight. The storm dropping down from the north at 156 looks a bit strange. It goes on to form a low in the southeast. After 276 the Arctic gates open up and towards the end of the run, even colder air is spilling southward. No Christmas storm this run though As long as its cold Christmas day thats all I care about at this point. Models will flop ya know man, they always do this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 00z Euro remains persistent on a track across Arkansas with the storm next week. I do wish the track was farther south though as the 850 MB low looks like it wants to cross over SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The 00z Euro remains persistent on a track across Arkansas with the storm next week. I do wish the track was farther south though as the 850 MB low looks like it wants to cross over SW MO. 12z GFS has our low crossing AR in the 168 timeframe but then drops it S into the SE states much like last nite's run did. Looks a little odd with that path but does produce what appears to be a swath of snow across S MO. Appears to be colder than the Euro but the 0z Euro did come in colder last nite as well. So both models are onto a potential winter weather producer 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z GFS has our low crossing AR in the 168 timeframe but then drops it S into the SE states much like last nite's run did. Looks a little odd with that path but does produce what appears to be a swath of snow across S MO. Appears to be colder than the Euro but the 0z Euro did come in colder last nite as well. So both models are onto a potential winter weather producer 7 days out. Yeah, I think the GFS will get colder as we get closer (assuming the storm is still there, lol) Also goes really cold in the long range again as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 12z Euro now actually looking more like the GFS (go figure) in developing LP over far SE AR at h168 and then scooting due E to the Carolinas. Not sure about it's moisture fields but looks plenty cold at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I don't like the 18z so let's skip it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 12z Euro ensembles further north with a classic track up thru the Ohio valley, as they have been for awhile now. This flat track looks a little odd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 All aboard the East Coast bomb train. *bangs head against desk* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Should have mostly clear to clear skies tomorrow night for Geminids viewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z Euro is turning on the freezer at 192+ as it drops cold air in from Canada. 1050 MB high pressure sneaking into Montana at 240 hours. The 12z GFS has a 1046 MB high over South Dakota at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Thanks for the update, JoMo. Some really cold air Christmas week would be fantastic. I'll be driving to southeastern Iowa on the 22nd to spend Christmas with my wife's folks. It should be quite cold there, but I'm not getting my hopes up for any snow... yet, anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Thanks for the update, JoMo. Some really cold air Christmas week would be fantastic. I'll be driving to southeastern Iowa on the 22nd to spend Christmas with my wife's folks. It should be quite cold there, but I'm not getting my hopes up for any snow... yet, anyway! Yeah it looks colder as of now, but you can never be too sure since the models are performing pretty bleh right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 00z GFS tonight long range is still showing colder air moving in by the 22nd or 23rd. The southern stream delivers a disturbance by the 27th or so that is forced to move west to east due to a blocking high... The storm tracks south of most of the area which gives a lot of us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Have you guys stepped outside to spend 15 minutes looking at the meteor shower? Very very impressive. I am pretty far away from metropolitan Eureka Springs, so the light pollution is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Have you guys stepped outside to spend 15 minutes looking at the meteor shower? Very very impressive. I am pretty far away from metropolitan Eureka Springs, so the light pollution is minimal. I spent most of the evening outside watching it, was very cool indeed and one of the more impressive meteor showers I have ever seen! Some of those suckers looked pretty big and trailed across the sky for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Something is cooking around 27 -29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 hope it stays on the models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 00 GFS continues with big storm and cold around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 yeah the only problem is the threats stay in the long range. Neat to look at but they never happen once we get closer. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The Euro has had a pretty big storm in about 5-7 days for a few runs. Today's 12z run continues that theme with a storm at Day 4-5 or so. The storm as of right now looks to track from the TX/OK Panhandle up to north of St. Louis. This puts most of us in the warm sector until the low passes. I haven't seen the QPF maps but it's a pretty strong storm so there is probably a possibility for some wraparound snow showers at least for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 KOAM is teasing us with a slight chance of wrap around snow on Thursday. I don't even dare to get my hopes up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 KOAM is teasing us with a slight chance of wrap around snow on Thursday. I don't even dare to get my hopes up... 12z GFS is indicating a possibility of frozen stuff still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Oh and this run of the 12z GFS is great. Pretty impressive long duration winter event starting on Christmas day for much of the NW 1/2 of Oklahoma eventually moving into SE KS and SW MO. Best chance for frozen would be along and NW of I-44. Of course at the same time, the 00z Euro would have a storm that passes well to our NW and we'd probably get storms or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z euro gives us rain JoMo, but also a little back side snow (maybe half inch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Oh and this run of the 12z GFS is great. Pretty impressive long duration winter event starting on Christmas day for much of the NW 1/2 of Oklahoma eventually moving into SE KS and SW MO. Best chance for frozen would be along and NW of I-44. Of course at the same time, the 00z Euro would have a storm that passes well to our NW and we'd probably get storms or something. Maybe the EURO is just a bit behind on things. (Or maybe we will have a tornado watch on Christmas.) I don't need a lot of snow yet... just a bit to get me in the Christmas mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z euro gives us rain JoMo, but also a little back side snow (maybe half inch) For which system? The one near Christmas or the one in about 4 days? The Christmas one is subject change a few dozen times. I like the look of the cold air ready to charge south though. Maybe the EURO is just a bit behind on things. (Or maybe we will have a tornado watch on Christmas.) I don't need a lot of snow yet... just a bit to get me in the Christmas mood. That's what I'm saying. Just need a little Christmas mood snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 both lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Nice write up by a snow loving TV met on 40/29 TV in Fayetteville. Anybody know Darby Bybee? We should try and get him to participate with all you snow addicts hounds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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