OKpowdah Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 00z GFS shifted back to keying in on the southern s/w a little more ... less strung and a distinct PV notch over OK and KS. It's quite possible that this s/w isn't being sampled very well at the moment and is thus being underplayed ... 18z and 00z tomorrow should solidify the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 CPC still shows our region having a 40-50% chance of above normal temps through the rest of the month (6-10 day, 8-14, and one month each put us in that category, respectively). Do you think this is a legitimate forecast for our neck of the woods? I'm hearing that the rest of December looks generally chilly to cold from my local mets. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 00z GFS shifted back to keying in on the southern s/w a little more ... less strung and a distinct PV notch over OK and KS. It's quite possible that this s/w isn't being sampled very well at the moment and is thus being underplayed ... 18z and 00z tomorrow should solidify the forecast Trend continues today as the s/w in question gets sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Looks like some significant changes on today's 12Z ECMWF run. Last night the southern shortwave at 108h was centered over western Oklahoma and was still fairly strung out, while this morning's makes it even more discrete and hangs it back over El Paso at the same time frame. Big differences from the 12Z GFS as well, which had the shortwave in a similar location as last night's Euro. This change has resulted in a QPF of 0.1-0.2" (not much, but it's something...) from Abilene to Dallas, with what looks to be snow flurries over Oklahoma Monday afternoon. I haven't looked at this storm in too much detail (finals period FTL) but this morning's ECMWF definitely piqued my interest, if only slightly. It goes on to form a secondary low by 00Z Tuesday with around a half inch of QPF in the Arklatex region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Well the trend is definitely better, especially with the spacing of that northern system and the cutting that southern piece off a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Looks like some significant changes on today's 12Z ECMWF run. Last night the southern shortwave at 108h was centered over western Oklahoma and was still fairly strung out, while this morning's makes it even more discrete and hangs it back over El Paso at the same time frame. Big differences from the 12Z GFS as well, which had the shortwave in a similar location as last night's Euro. This change has resulted in a QPF of 0.1-0.2" (not much, but it's something...) from Abilene to Dallas, with what looks to be snow flurries over Oklahoma Monday afternoon. I haven't looked at this storm in too much detail (finals period FTL) but this morning's ECMWF definitely piqued my interest, if only slightly. It goes on to form a secondary low by 00Z Tuesday with around a half inch of QPF in the Arklatex region. There certainly has been some changes the past 12-18 hours via guidance. It may not be the BIGGEST Winter event we've seen, but it has been interesting to see the changes as we get closer to this event. Perhaps we can consolidate things into another thread for this event since it does appear folks in the Southern Rockies as well as the Southern Plains may well see a bit of snow in the cold sector while we further S in the warm sector may deal with a Western Gulf Low next week as well with the secondary short wave diving S into the Great Basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I sure hope it starts getting colder soon, this warmth in December like this has me bummed out. Don't think I have ever seen it this warm not to mention xmas a few weeks away, need some cold air at least to stick around to get me in that holiday spirit! Looks like it gets colder for a few days then BAM right back to the 50's again bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 18z GFS is quite a mess with energy everywhere in the medium/long range. Going to be hard to time each individual wave and if they choose to spin up, or if they simply remain positive tilted bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Great day today. Drizzle and fog and cool weather. Only thing missing was football on TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Losing the ridge in the Pacific on the long range GFS is a real bummer. I'm mad at winter already and it isn't here yet, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Losing the ridge in the Pacific on the long range GFS is a real bummer. I'm mad at winter already and it isn't here yet, lol Yeah this is starting to look real ugly again. I've got dandelions blooming for crying out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Yeah this is starting to look real ugly again. I've got dandelions blooming for crying out loud. Looks like we'll be dealing with severe thunderstorms next week if the Euro keeps going the way it's going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Looks like we'll be dealing with severe thunderstorms next week if the Euro keeps going the way it's going. 18z looks a bit better long range. A bit more amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 18z looks a bit better long range. A bit more amplification. The 00z GFS is bleh. A couple of storms miss us to the west, a couple to the east, lol Still looks like we may have to deal with severe weather in about a week. Brett Anderson is going to put the Euro monthlies up on his blog on Monday. He said it has more of a -AO look to it with the vortex in northern/central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 But the AO has been negative. It's just that Europe is getting all the fun and we aren't as the pv has been on the wrong side of the pole. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The 00z GFS is bleh. A couple of storms miss us to the west, a couple to the east, lol Still looks like we may have to deal with severe weather in about a week. Brett Anderson is going to put the Euro monthlies up on his blog on Monday. He said it has more of a -AO look to it with the vortex in northern/central Canada. GGEM/Ukie appear to be trending in that direction as well. GGEM appears to also like that second trough that the Euro has had for a few runs in the longer term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yeah so the 216 hour 12z Euro would be pretty great I'm thinking. 988 MB low in NE Arkansas. Negative tilted look. 850 MB temps cold enough for snow. This storm goes farther south because the storm before that misses us to the northwest. I don't think any of the GFS ensembles even have a system. A lot of energy to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 It is getting colder that is for sure. Now if we could just get some moisture. I think it is humorous that the 12z GFS basically gives everyone snow except for us and the very deep South. We can't even get any on the extended range when the map isn't truncated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Brett Anderson posted the new Euro seasonal maps for the rest of winter. Meh, hopefully the polar vortex will be in a good spot to give us more cold air and maybe we can get a storm to spin up http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-winter-forecast-model-is-stormier-in-the-east/2558096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Brett Anderson posted the new Euro seasonal maps for the rest of winter. Meh, hopefully the polar vortex will be in a good spot to give us more cold air and maybe we can get a storm to spin up http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/updated-winter-forecast-model-is-stormier-in-the-east/2558096 I take his interpretation to be somewhat positive. Negative AO, coldest of air pushing farther south, troughiness central and eastern US. As long as we dont become too NW flow dominant. Would be nice to see the southern jet get going. Last nite's Euro looked favorable after day 7 once again. But it appears to be miles apart from the 12z GFS look this morning. Interesting battle but I dont trust either in that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I take his interpretation to be somewhat positive. Negative AO, coldest of air pushing farther south, troughiness central and eastern US. As long as we dont become too NW flow dominant. Would be nice to see the southern jet get going. Last nite's Euro looked favorable after day 7 once again. But it appears to be miles apart from the 12z GFS look this morning. Interesting battle but I dont trust either in that time range. Yeah and the issue with the Euro was that it wasn't exactly cold with that system. Appears the cold is leaving our side of the pole for a bit. Asia over to Alaska looks cold. The maps he posted didn't look that bad. I'd like the trough to be a bit farther west so we can be in that 'wetter' pattern instead of being between the dry and wetter with the really warm air lurking just to our southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Seriously...I'm starting to get a little worried...I mean Dallas, TX got snow yesterday and we haven't even seen a flake!!! The models look terrible for any real snow chances....hoping something changes favorable for some white stuff around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The 192 12z Euro did have a storm crossing Arkansas still. Looked cold enough for snow at 850 MB. It's been pretty consistent on the track of this storm while the GFS has pretty much nothing. Wunderground's Euro isn't working again so I couldn't see the 180 hour map to see what was going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 The 18z GFS went towards more of a Euro look for the storm that the Euro has tracking south of us. It moved a chunk of energy from the Canada border on the 12z to Texas on the 18z. Also a Christmas fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Hey things are looking up. Here is a Christmas snowstorm showing up on the 18z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I saw that "storm" around the 18-20, but it apparently is starved for moisture. It is a very favorable track for us, but then again, do we really want it to look great 8-10 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I swore I would never post a h300+ map on here but I did. Couldnt pass it up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I saw that "storm" around the 18-20, but it apparently is starved for moisture. It is a very favorable track for us, but then again, do we really want it to look great 8-10 days out? Curious to see what some of the ensembles show. It made a pretty big change from the 12z run when it was located across southern Canada above Minnesota. That makes it look more like the Euro now which has been screaming for a low to move across Arkansas for the last 2 days or so of runs. Unfortunately the Euro precip and temp maps, which are available to 180 on Wunderground, chose not to work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Curious to see what some of the ensembles show. It made a pretty big change from the 12z run when it was located across southern Canada above Minnesota. That makes it look more like the Euro now which has been screaming for a low to move across Arkansas for the last 2 days or so of runs. Unfortunately the Euro precip and temp maps, which are available to 180 on Wunderground, chose not to work today. Yeah I couldnt get them to work, either. And yes to me it is coming around to more semblance of the Euro look in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Like I posted on Brandon Beck's facebook page: Lock it in. Ha! Ha! Either way... brr today. High today here was only 32º. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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