arizonasooner Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I hate to say this, but persistence forecasting seems to be working pretty well this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 yeah unfortunately it has been. An excellent writeup with pretty graphics and stuff was written by this Met on the SE forum about the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Ok this is getting a bit worrisome. Just wait there is a pattern change coming in Dec. Wait it may be later December or maybe even in January. Come on Doug throw us a bone here man. I know you used to be a JB fan, not sure if you are anymore, but he updated his winter forecast a few days ago and you can find it here: http://epawablogs.com/joe-bastardis-updated-winter-forecast/ The 00z GFS brings the Pacific ridge back in a big way. Very little consistency between model runs in the extended as this is completely different from the 12z run in the long range. Looks like it's a battle between the west coast trough and west coast ridge. Flip a coin to see which wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I know you used to be a JB fan, not sure if you are anymore, but he updated his winter forecast a few days ago and you can find it here: http://epawablogs.co...inter-forecast/ The 00z GFS brings the Pacific ridge back in a big way. Very little consistency between model runs in the extended as this is completely different from the 12z run in the long range. Looks like it's a battle between the west coast trough and west coast ridge. Flip a coin to see which wins. Jo Mo, That link doesn't work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Jo Mo, That link doesn't work for me. Works fine for me. Try this one: http://www.epawablogs.com/joe-bastardis-updated-winter-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 For some reason the text is not coming up on the link. Can you give me a quick recap of what he is saying? tks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 For some reason the text is not coming up on the link. Can you give me a quick recap of what he is saying? tks Basically he and Joe D'Aleo are looking at 03-04, 68-69, 09-10, (second 62-63), (third 10-11) as analogs. He then posts some Korean and JMA maps, a Euro map, JAMSTEC, etc. What it comes down to temp wise is slightly above normal in Dec. Slightly below normal in Jan, and Slightly above in Feb. for a 3 month average of slightly below to near normal basically. Snow is slightly above normal (125% of normal) for the entire area and well all of AR/OK/MO/KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Basically he and Joe D'Aleo are looking at 03-04, 68-69, 09-10, (second 62-63), (third 10-11) as analogs. He then posts some Korean and JMA maps, a Euro map, JAMSTEC, etc. What it comes down to temp wise is slightly above normal in Dec. Slightly below normal in Jan, and Slightly above in Feb. for a 3 month average of slightly below to near normal basically. Snow is slightly above normal for the entire area and well all of AR/OK/MO/KS. OK tks man. Just reading Doug's blog tonite and he doesn't sound real promising. Saying it will be hard to get big snows this winter. I would just like to see an avg winter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 OK tks man. Just reading Doug's blog tonite and he doesn't sound real promising. Saying it will be hard to get big snows this winter. I would just like to see an avg winter at this point. Using his pattern method, it definitely doesn't favor us being in a favorable track for big snows as it favors an eastern trough more of the time which puts us on the western side in NW flow, which isn't a big snow maker here. The other part of the 'pattern' is the western trough configuration.. if that sets up farther east, we'd be in a good spot for at least something. There are some wildcards using that method though, like the AO, the more negative it becomes, the greater our chances of that pattern shifting south and putting us in a more favorable location. Also as the season wears on, the 'pattern' tends to shift farther and farther south as the jet stream gets stronger. If you have looked at the snowcover in Canada, it's pretty much completely covered and it's going to be getting deeper, this favors more arctic air assuming the polar vortex and Gulf of Alaska low lets it come south. That's the big 'if' right now and something the models are struggling with. Edit: 12z GFS didn't look that bad at all despite the western trough winning the coin flip. Really close to an ice storm 300-312ish or so. Has a Dec 2007 look this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 12z GFS this morning goes with a stronger Pacific ridge (taller) and drops a trough in the west at the same time it drops the cold air down. It then forms a cutoff over CA and the end result is a lot of light frozen precip for most of us. A very cold and interesting solution. It's really nice seeing the cold showing up pretty consistently, unlike last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 From Tulsa's afternoon discussion: ALTHOUGH ACCURACY IN LONGER TERM FORECASTING LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED... WILL MENTION SOMETHING THAT HAS CONTINUED TO APPEAR IN THE GFS OF LATE AND IS NOW BECOMING APPARENT IN THE ECMWF. PROJECTED NORTH AMERICAN AIR MASS MOVEMENTS ARE HINTING AT A TRUE WINTER TYPE ARCTIC AIR MASS SWEEPING DOWN THE PLAINS ON ABOUT DAY 10 OR 11. IT IS TOO SOON TO EVEN GUESS WHETHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD COINCIDE WITH THIS EVENT... IF IT WERE TO OCCUR AT THAT TIME. ...bring it on! I want to sit out on my deck on the 11th and feel that Blue Norther roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 The 00z GFS tonight didn't really change that much from it's 12z run through 240. The GFS/Euro were pretty different on the 12z run so I thought the GFS may have went back towards the Euro. Texas gets a pretty big snow/ice multi-day event this run as a cutoff forms over the SW and pumps moisture up and over the cold air that invades the Plains. Overall not a bad run at all and it continues showing cold air heading down the Plains before it truncates at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Edit: The 12z Euro is trying to get something going at 180 in Texas it looks like. Interesting run as well as it got rid of the trough to our east. The 12z GFS again looked pretty good in the long range. It warms up a bit due to westerly flow off the Rockies around hour 300 or so but it does have 3 shots at some kind of light wintry weather this run. After the truncation at 192, it has ice/snow along and NW of I-44 basically. The GGEM had a similar solution last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 18z GFS. This might be a legit threat since it's also on the Euro. Only 8 more grueling days to see if it is, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yes it will be a long 8 days for anyone who subconsciously (or consciously) organizes their computer schedule around the model output times and pores over the notoriously fickle 7+ day solutions. At least now it does finally appear their is some potential wintry intrigue ahead (and sooner than +300 hours this time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yes it will be a long 8 days for anyone who subconsciously (or consciously) organizes their computer schedule around the model output times and pores over the notoriously fickle 7+ day solutions. At least now it does finally appear their is some potential wintry intrigue ahead (and sooner than +300 hours this time). Guilty as charged. Just wait until we get a legit threat that's close, then when I wake up to take a piss at night, I'll have to take a peek at the 06z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 00z GFS is going to go BOOM this run. And thar she blows..... Now if we could lock that in a bit farther east. So nice to see a storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yep nice run. Lots of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yep nice run. Lots of time left. At least it shows a storm, and the Euro agrees with a storm around that time as well. If it decides to tilt too early, we get all rain and it passes over us or west of us. If it tilts too late and stays positive tilted we probably get some flurries or cloudy skies. That isn't even counting if it passes to our north and we just get rain. I don't remember seeing too many storms on the models last year though. I think the NAM had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 00z GFS is going to go BOOM this run. And thar she blows..... Now if we could lock that in a bit farther east. and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Or we could just lock it in as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Or we could just lock it in as is. Would be better than tonight's Euro which has a big storm over the N Plains and a big Arctic outbreak coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 GFS went BOOM again this morning on the 12z run. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Still a bit of a spread on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 I am really trying not to get too excited....BUT KOTV Tulsa's Travis Meyer just posted on Facebook, "Way too warm for December BUT we might just fix that with some snow for NE Oklahoma next Monday!!! Even though the computer model has not been too accurate that I am getting my information from at least it is the first time for a quick cold shot and a much needed dose of a "Christmas" feeling !" Let's hope all the models get in full agreement and we all get a great December snowstorm!!! WOOHOO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Euro says nope. Maybe some flurries as it tracks the system over us in a positive tilt fashion. Looks like it goes over Chicago as well which is farther east than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Euro says nope. Maybe some flurries as it tracks the system over us in a positive tilt fashion. Looks like it goes over Chicago as well which is farther east than the 00z run. The Euro will come around, I'm not worried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Let's hope all the models get in full agreement and we all get a great December snowstorm!!! WOOHOO!!! If the atmosphere were at all concerned about events being "overdue," I think we'd be... well, overdue. The last pre-Christmastime winter storm I can remember was the ice storm in 2007, and the last snowstorm would have to be 11/30/06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Haven't we all been burned by GFS Goofy before? "Telling us there is some winter storm, only for the Euro to say heck no!" I can't deal with this stress! I hope for my sanity Goofy is right for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 The Tulsa Office is becoming more bullish with the idea of a major pattern change. YES. MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT AN INFLUX OF POLAR CONTINENTAL AIR... AND SOME CORROBORATION BETWEEN MODELS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE... AS WELL AS THE DEGREE AND EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS... AND WHETHER ANY LOCALIZED PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT AT THE VERY LEAST... WE WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS CURRENTLY AT THE TAIL END OF OUR FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY BECOME THE MAIN TOPIC OF FORECASTS FROM HERE ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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