MoWeatherguy Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm starting to think (based on everything I'm reading) we're in store for just a regular "nada" winter as the el nino may have trouble getting out of the gates this year. BTW looks like the 06z GFS went back to more of a wilder look vs the 0z, especially in the later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 So the 12z GFS run is really really wild...... It is coming in a bit colder in the medium range period that I've been watching. We are very close to getting something frozen during that period. If the colder air sets up a bit farther south and east, we would be looking at a snow/ice situation. The 500 MB chart looks much like what we saw on Dec 8-10 2007 when we had one of our big ice storms: And around 276/288 or so, we get frozen stuff this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Wow good find on that '07 storm. Looks remarkably close at this point. I guess it would all come down to temp profiles if indeed there is a storm. Maybe we're about to get into an active period for a couple of weeks. I think Doug has been pointing to that time frame as well. Speaking of Doug I think tomorrow nite is his winter forecast on his weathercast. I don't get that channel on my service so give us an update if you get the chance. Thxs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Wow good find on that '07 storm. Looks remarkably close at this point. I guess it would all come down to temp profiles if indeed there is a storm. Maybe we're about to get into an active period for a couple of weeks. I think Doug has been pointing to that time frame as well. Speaking of Doug I think tomorrow nite is his winter forecast on his weathercast. I don't get that channel on my service so give us an update if you get the chance. Thxs. Yeah the 12z Euro actually spun a storm up and I think we would be on the warm side of that system as it would probably track over us. The 18z GFS truncates at 192 before it can kick the main system out this run. Definitely have to keep an eye on the low level cold air seeping farther south. It's going to be an interesting week of model watching as it's active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I echo the sentiments of a good call on the 2007 pattern. Ice probably looks more likely around here, especially at this time of year with shallow cold air. Let's hope we begin to see some consistency over the next few days. It will help when the storm isn't in that period that is truncated. KSPR's winter forecast is tonight, but the real deal is tomorrow with Doug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 What did KSPR say tonight? Doug seems pretty excited about the change to winter. He mentioned this next system coming up. Speaking of that, the 00z GFS is again coming in colder due to some changes. It would have some type of light frozen precip in primarily SW MO and NW AR on Monday evening and night according to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 He is forecasting 12-16" of snow for the season with a higher than normal severe weather threat. Temps above average overall, although he says there will be wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Mr. Lezak up in Kansas City (KSHB) released his forecast as well. I'm assuming they still collaborate, but I can't find the KSPR forecast. Originally from KC, I'm more in touch with that market. All I know is that I agree with KSHB from the Plains to the East. My area, the Tennessee Valley, looks pretty good. I was already telling my internal clients something along these lines. For the Heartland looks cool Dec/Jan. Just like the AO is a bit positive the last 2-3 weeks, that milder signal might come around again in Feb. (Dec/Jan/Feb commentary mine - not putting words into their mouths.) Lezak looks for 1-2 decent storms for KC. Otherwise most of the action may be Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley, depending on the AO at the time of the systems. He's kind of bearish in his local market, so I trust this as a serious forecast. Southwest Missouri local forecast may differ from that for KC. Their system has worked out most of the last several winters. Link below. Enjoy! http://weatherblog.nbcactionnews.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Long-time anonymous lurker, new member and first-time poster here. I reside in the fair city of Tulsa, and anxiously await the pattern change early next week. I'm a snow weenie, and quite proud of the fact. I'd like to say thanks to all of you who keep this thread updated with such informed content. I'm just an amateur with a lifelong passion for remarkable weather events and the way these events can affect the introspective soul. Anyway, here's to interesting (and wintry) weeks ahead! -Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Hello westhope84. I think we are all winter weather fans here. Well, todays models weren't the best looking for us. There seems to be a gradual backing off on the cold air and nothing is wanting to spin up in the fast flow. Still got a week or so to go, but something changed last night that changed what the models are now thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Here's a blog with Doug's forecast: http://weather.koamtv.com/2012/11/21/wednesday-am-winter-forecast/ Doug's forecast: About Average precip wise Temps... A hair below average... ends at SW Missouri with average for OK/KS/AR Just below average snow at 15" A few ice storms possible About an average winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 00z GFS wasn't as good as previous runs, but the 06z looked a bit different. Hopefully the new 12z will give us something interesting to talk about precip wise. Still looks cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Thanks for the link. They are indeed similar on the North American weather pattern. Mr. Heady has his jet stream a little farther south. It is nearly a carbon copy of Sep/Oct which is how I handled it here. Mr. Lezak may be weighing the 5-10 year trend more, because he's not as cold. Lezak may be considering the drought for the lighter precip. I don't want to put words into their mouths; just guessing. Plains and Heartland weather is going to depend on the Pacific which is in flux (both ENSO and PDO). Over here in the Tennessee Valley the AO looks to be a driver. Thankfully my local forecast might be easier than yours. We won't know until March, lol! The -AO in Sep/Oct looks to repeat in Dec/Jan. We're all mild now with a +AO which I think might repeat in Feb. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Here's a blog with Doug's forecast: http://weather.koamtv.com/2012/11/21/wednesday-am-winter-forecast/ Doug's forecast: About Average precip wise Temps... A hair below average... ends at SW Missouri with average for OK/KS/AR Just below average snow at 15" A few ice storms possible About an average winter overall. So what I'm gleaning from Doug's forecast is a winter dominated by NW flow (which usually does not bode well for us here), and with the forecasted cycle length we could go 4-6 weeks in the heart of winter without any good chances of a big storm. I guess that is about typical for these parts anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 So what I'm gleaning from Doug's forecast is a winter dominated by NW flow (which usually does not bode well for us here), and with the forecasted cycle length we could go 4-6 weeks in the heart of winter without any good chances of a big storm. I guess that is about typical for these parts anyway. Looks like it. GFS/Euro have flipped to a nasty ridge over much of the US now.. We're going to need a massive -AO or something. It looks awful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Looks like it. GFS/Euro have flipped to a nasty ridge over much of the US now.. We're going to need a massive -AO or something. It looks awful... Last winter season is too fresh on my mind still. This one not looking all that great at the moment that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Long range certainly doesnt look good for late Nov - first part of Dec so unless AO complies that can be viewed as a wasted timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Long range certainly doesnt look good for late Nov - first part of Dec so unless AO complies that can be viewed as a wasted timeframe. yeah, you see how fast things can change though. A few days ago it was looking cold and wild, and now it's looking warm and dry. It'll change again and we haven't even really got into December. Now if it was Feb and the models were showing this, I'd be in meltdown mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 See, 6 hours later and the (18z) GFS doesn't look as bad. Still shows the warm up after that little system comes through which may give us some flurries, but by the end of the run, it's snowing in deep south Texas, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I'll take it. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Good ole GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Happy Thanksgiving Everyone! Hope everyone has a wonderful day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Once again the off hour run of the GFS looks better for us. Oh well... I plan to enjoy today's nice weather while it lasts. Here's wishing you all a Happy Thanksgiving and a snowy winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Happy Thanksgiving everyone. The GFS is flopping around like a fish out of water in the long range of course, but I still like seeing chances of wintry weather. City of Joplin released this: "As we head into the holiday season, we're thankful for the 155,341 registered volunteers and the 960,177 hours they've given to our city over the past 18 months. Through the hard work and determination of everyone involved, 80% of the households that were damaged or destroyed are either rebuilt or under permit to be rebuilt." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! gobble gobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! gobble gobble Is it really your birthday today? If so, Happy Birthday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Boring Boring Boring. Eventually that swirling mass of vortex things off the west coast in the extended range is going to beach itself on the west coast. It'll probably pass to our west giving us T-storms and severe weather though. Chicago NWS released their winter forecast. They mentioned this year as being like 2008-2009. We had below normal snow and above normal temps that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Boring Boring Boring. Eventually that swirling mass of vortex things off the west coast in the extended range is going to beach itself on the west coast. It'll probably pass to our west giving us T-storms and severe weather though. Chicago NWS released their winter forecast. They mentioned this year as being like 2008-2009. We had below normal snow and above normal temps that year. yes all of a sudden my optimism for this upcoming winter is beginning to wane. Too many negatives showing up for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 We will have to take it one model run at a time. After last winter I would just be happy with a couple of snows. How accurate are these long range forecasts anyway? I know we pay a lot of attention to them, but have there ever been any verification studies done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 There's still a lot of winter left but I like me some snow before Christmas. January is our snowiest month with Feb coming in 2nd. I think down south near Tulsa, Jan. is snowiest with Dec coming in 2nd on average. We are more likely to get big snows in Feb or March. December is not looking too good at this time but it'll probably change. Feb looks great though, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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