JoMo Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 thats the best I've seen snowcover this early in some time now. Yeah it's pretty great. Did you see the 18z GFS at 360-384? That's what the CFS v2 has been showing happening multiple times as we get into the winter. The big trough dropping down into the west, the only difference is if the system slides south of us or if it slides west of us. That determines our precip type as we get later on in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yeah it's pretty great. Did you see the 18z GFS at 360-384? That's what the CFS v2 has been showing happening multiple times as we get into the winter. The big trough dropping down into the west, the only difference is if the system slides south of us or if it slides west of us. That determines our precip type as we get later on in the season. Yes been watching that time frame. Today's 12z looking good long range as well. If we can exptrapolate that further into Dec-Jan we could be talking serious winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Now I have to get used to the new model run times since DST ended. 12z/00z GFS starts at 9:30 and 18z/06z starts at 3:30 I believe. This means the 00z/12z NAM starts at 7:45 and the 18z/06z starts at 2:45. Euro should start showing up on sites at midnight and noon. The GFS has recently started wanting to leave energy behind when it comes to the big trough and storm next week. This is still a long way out so it will change, but some areas may get some flurries or light snow out of it. The 12z GFS gives most of us a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Don't look at the 12z Euro at Wunderground at hour 168-180 if you don't want to see the snow it has for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Don't look at the 12z Euro at Wunderground at hour 168-180 if you don't want to see the snow it has for us. Well you warned me not to look but I just had to. That's a pretty sharp trough and front coming thru next weekend so who knows. Hopefully the Euro is onto something to at least give us a little taste of winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well you warned me not to look but I just had to. That's a pretty sharp trough and front coming thru next weekend so who knows. Hopefully the Euro is onto something to at least give us a little taste of winter around here. Doug mentioned the S word. A couple of the 18z GFS ensembles look pretty good. But man, the Euro with probably 6+ inches for here would be great. More than likely, it will probably end up west of here though and we just end up with rain but it's nice to see so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Doug mentioned the S word. A couple of the 18z GFS ensembles look pretty good. But man, the Euro with probably 6+ inches for here would be great. More than likely, it will probably end up west of here though and we just end up with rain but it's nice to see so early. I just read Doug's blog. Sounds interesting for now at least. That Euro is crazy with it's amounts but I've seen crazier things happen thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Dang the Euro lost our storm (snow)! Oh well on to the next plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Dang the Euro lost our storm (snow)! Oh well on to the next plenty of time. Yeah it keeps the trough together and just has basically a cold frontal passage. The latest CFS v2 looks better for winter. This morning's GFS look blah for the entire cycle.Too much storminess off the NW coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah it keeps the trough together and just has basically a cold frontal passage. The latest CFS v2 looks better for winter. This morning's GFS look blah for the entire cycle.Too much storminess off the NW coast. Yes 12z GFS looks like crap long-range. Hope that pattern doesnt set-up for the winter or we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 If November sets the tone for winter we are in trouble around here. Man is it boring looking the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 If November sets the tone for winter we are in trouble around here. Man is it boring looking the next couple of weeks. Yes unfortunately November has been pretty bad. If that low hangs out along the west coast or Alaska that will be a major bummer. The CFS v2 doesn't look too bad for us for Dec-Feb so hopefully that constant low pressure along the coast or Alaska disappears so we aren't flooded with Pacific air all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Oh that wacky 00z GFS tonight. Throwing us a southern storm system with some snow in the long long range towards the end of the month before things go to crap with the storminess of the NW coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I remember a time when we would all gather on this thread, eagerly awaiting a model run to see if we would get lucky and get some snow. Those days seem like a distant memory after the disaster of last year. I'm really hoping we have a decent winter this year. I'd like to place an order for some snow before Christmas to put me in the mood. Doug will have the Winter Forecast next Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I agree JoMo. I hope that something interesting pops up soon and that we have an active winter. I haven't done much model watching as of late. There's nothing really to watch in the summer around here... a death ridge isn't fun to stare at out through 300+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I usually don't look at the models during the summer or fall either, until about the middle of October as I start anticipating winter. There has not been much to look at lately. I have been seeing big run to run changes at the end of the GFS run, some extreme solutions which usually indicates some type of change in the pattern. JAMSTEC Nov forecast is out. DJF looks colder than normal: But pretty dry: (hope it's drier because there's more snow instead of liquid precip ) Latest CFS v2 has temps and precip around normal for DJF as a whole. EDIT: Oh and the latest CPC outlook looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 is looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 is looking good... Looks like a forecast for a "normal" winter since Tulsa's snowfall is just under 10" annually isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Looks like a forecast for a "normal" winter since Tulsa's snowfall is just under 10" annually isn't it? Yes, is normal snowfall for Tulsa area but looks more better compare with the last year (only 2"), and here in Bartlesville can be more snowfall than in Tulsa . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I remember a time when we would all gather on this thread, eagerly awaiting a model run to see if we would get lucky and get some snow. Those days seem like a distant memory after the disaster of last year. I'm really hoping we have a decent winter this year. I'd like to place an order for some snow before Christmas to put me in the mood. Doug will have the Winter Forecast next Tuesday night. Looking forward to hearing Doug's thoughts next week. Hopefully it's optimistic. And I think we're just a couple of short weeks away from gathering on here and doing some serious model watching. I'm ready to see 8-10 of us on here waiting on the 0z runs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Looking forward to hearing Doug's thoughts next week. Hopefully it's optimistic. And I think we're just a couple of short weeks away from gathering on here and doing some serious model watching. I'm ready to see 8-10 of us on here waiting on the 0z runs again. I'm still around, just boring right now lol until winter picks up. I hope this warm november isnt what's in store for the rest of winter though . It almost feels like a repeat of last year all over allready lol. But I have to remember how whacky the weather can be outwest here! Happy Thanksgiving to all you guys in case Im not around!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Doug's hinting at wintery wx nearby in the Nov 29-Dec 1 timeframe. I haven't had a chance to look at the models in the last few days. Long range is there anything showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Doug's hinting at wintery wx nearby in the Nov 29-Dec 1 timeframe. I haven't had a chance to look at the models in the last few days. Long range is there anything showing up? It changes but we haven't really had a decent shot at anything on any model run that has lasted multiple runs. The 06z GFS came in pretty warm/boring for the entire period compared to the 00z, which had a huge eastern trough towards the end of the run. The Euro Weeklies on Thurs. had a large eastern trough developing in early-mid Dec and it was cold. We were on the western side of it so we were dry. The issue we've been seeing is recurrent storminess off the NW coast. If you remember last year, Alaska had a vortex that would not budge which gave them a ton of snow but gave us warm Pacific air nearly all winter. We don't want something like that happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 EDIT: 12z Euro is cooking something up at h240 as well. There is something interesting showing up around the 27th-29th though. It was there on the 00z GFS run as well. It'll probably pass over us/to our west which will give us rain but it's the only interesting thing going on. Time Sensitive: Due to the persistent storminess, SW Canada gets around 7 FEET of snow in places through the entire 12z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 EDIT: 12z Euro is cooking something up at h240 as well. There is something interesting showing up around the 27th-29th though. It was there on the 00z GFS run as well. It'll probably pass over us/to our west which will give us rain but it's the only interesting thing going on. Time Sensitive: Due to the persistent storminess, SW Canada gets around 7 FEET of snow in places through the entire 12z GFS run. 12z h240 850-slp euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Thanks prin. Yeah it looks like that's going to be the period to watch for those of us in the Plains for possibly a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 *fingers crossed* Time to start model watching again before long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That is an amazingly wild 12z GFS run this morning. Looks nothing like the 00z run last night in the long range. Brrrrrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Indeed JoMo. Let the model watching begin. Cold, wet, and wild!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 You betcha. Tonight's 00z run of the GFS is still showing the cold getting closer in the timeline. (meaning it isn't 'stuck' at 240 hours out each run or something) The interesting period is after the truncation at 192 though still. You have to watch those low level cold airmasses since they tend to slip farther south than the models think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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