MoWeatherguy Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 That's quite the spread on those CPC models. Are they all for the same forecast period? Jamstec is looking better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 That's quite the spread on those CPC models. Are they all for the same forecast period? Jamstec is looking better though. Yep, all are for Dec-Feb season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 In just a few minutes fall will officially be here. That means we are one day closer to the first real shot of winter weather. Thanks for posting the models above and the outlooks. It seems this year should be more exciting than last year. Of course, it would be hard to get less exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Hmm SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL 216 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012 KSZ057-060-MOZ043>046-053-054-272315- MIAMI-LINN KS-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...RAYMORE... HARRISONVILLE...PLEASANT HILL...WARRENSBURG...SEDALIA... BOONVILLE...BUTLER...RICH HILL...CLINTON 216 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012 ...FUNNEL CLOUDS SIGHTED OVER HENRY COUNTY... MISSOURI LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED SIGHTINGS OF A FEW BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR CLINTON. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SMALL THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 13. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXIST THAT FAVOR THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS ON A PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY. SOME OF THESE CIRCULATIONS ARE OCCURRING UNDERNEATH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE A FUNNEL CLOUD MAY DEVELOP. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS...THE FUNNEL CLOUD USUALLY DISSIPATES. LOW HANGING CLOUDS CAN ALSO APPEAR TO DIP UP AND DOWN AT TIMES... BUT THEY WILL NOT SHOW SIGNS OF ANY RAPID ROTATION. AN ACTUAL FUNNEL CLOUD WILL EXHIBIT SPINNING IN A COUNTER-CLOCKWISE DIRECTION. IN RARE INSTANCES THESE FUNNELS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCHDOWN. STAY ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER IF A FUNNEL CLOUD APPROACHES THE GROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 CPC found their blue crayon and are calling for a below normal Oct. We do have colder air coming in. Also, I just checked the Wxcaster CFS maps for the first time this year. It's looking colder and wetter than I remember it showing last year. We're all going to freeze to death around Christmas according to it. http://www.wxcaster.com/cfs_charts.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Brrrrr, it's cold out there today. Remember that Brett Anderson posts his interpretation of the Euro weeklies and monthlies on his blog, he's not sure we're going to have an El-Nino this year: http://www.accuweath...-blogs/anderson The CFS2 latest outlook has cooled things down as far as temps go. The latest outlook (E3) went back to just mild anomalies and the area isn't nearly as big: http://origin.cpc.nc...wang/cfsv2fcst/ According to the only study I can find about Winters around this area...... http://www.nwas.org/...1/Pg13-Lupo.pdf "An examination of the interannual variability of SWMO snowfalls revealed that ENSO-neutral winters produced more snowfall events than the EI Nino or La Nina snowfall seasons, but the result was not statistically significant." But, since the PDO will likely be negative, the study goes on to say that during negative PDO years, El Nino produces more snowfalls. It's up in the air if we'll have a weak El-Nino or if we will be neutral. Also the CFS v2 long range: http://www.wxcaster.com/cfsv2_charts.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Good post JoMo. I see the GFS is just going bonkers in the long run with an active pattern featuring eastern/central troughs, split flows, and tons of precip. 16-day precip for this area showing 8+ inches of rain over that timeframe. I'd give a lot to see this kind of pattern develop and stick around most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Good post JoMo. I see the GFS is just going bonkers in the long run with an active pattern featuring eastern/central troughs, split flows, and tons of precip. 16-day precip for this area showing 8+ inches of rain over that timeframe. I'd give a lot to see this kind of pattern develop and stick around most of the winter. Yeah today's 12z GFS has a 360-384 hour fantasy snowstorm for areas just north of Wichita northeast up past St. Joseph, MO and on NE of there. If we do get ENSO neutral conditions, this is the typical winter pattern. It doesn't really look that bad for us as the area to the north of the wet area may actually get more snowy type precip due to the storm track. We would rely on Southwest type lows to be our snow makers and that's typically how we get snow around here anyway since the clippers usually miss us to the northeast. I've been looking at the CFS v2 forecast maps, not because I think they will be accurate but just to see the general pattern it is predicting. It does show a jet configuration like the one above for ENSO neutral conditions. We get a few SW lows that produce snow for our area but the eastern trough really hangs in there. http://www.wxcaster.com/cfsv2_charts.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 We dropped to 30º here at the house this morning and had ice in the bird bath. I enjoy reading your thoughts on the upcoming winter. Keep up the great discussion. After the summer we had, I get excited just to see rain chances in the forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 TSA has really amped the severe threat this afternoon for NE Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Jackpot rains here over the past couple of days. Good for filling up some of the ponds that have about gone dry since summer. 5.10" in the gauge since Friday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 Jackpot rains here over the past couple of days. Good for filling up some of the ponds that have about gone dry since summer. 5.10" in the gauge since Friday AM. It has been nice. We should see more according to the GFS and Euro as a western trough will develop possibly placing us in an active SW flow. SW Canada should build a nice snow pack along with the northern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 JAMSTEC updated today. Not much difference from the Sept run in the temp department: A little drier than last months run for us as they heavier precip shifted off to the east a bit more. Being below normal on precip isn't always a bad thing since it could be snow instead of liquid precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Jamestec not looking bad IMO. Almost looks more ninaish though than Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 Jamestec not looking bad IMO. Almost looks more ninaish though than Nino. It's looking better than last year, that's for sure. Of course, last year was kind of an anomaly. I have been liking the looks on the extended portions of the models showing a trough over the northern states dipping down. They've also been showing a lot of snowpack building in western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Both the GFS and Euro are hinting at a major cool down about a week or so away. From 80 this week into the 40's and 50's next week for highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 JAMSTEC basically screams a problematic winter severe wise for the SE....great.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 JAMSTEC basically screams a problematic winter severe wise for the SE....great.... It makes sense if you look at the typical ENSO neutral years graphic above. The wetter than normal conditions are over the SE in ENSO neutral years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 00z GFS says we're going to have a cold rain in about a week or so. Showing 2M temps of 35-45 across the area with precip. Still showing Canada getting a lot of snow as well. I'm still optimistic about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 4TL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 4TL I just dribbled in my pants a little. Ha! That's impressive even if the chances of this happening are nil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That's a fun map the DGEX spit out. I still don't know who said 'The NAM is terrible at 84 hours but hey I've got an idea, let's run it out a lot longer!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm starting to worry a bit about winter. The GFS has held storminess near Alaska on the long range runs for a long time now. That looks a lot like what happened last year. I'm hoping it breaks down by the time we get into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm starting to worry a bit about winter. The GFS has held storminess near Alaska on the long range runs for a long time now. That looks a lot like what happened last year. I'm hoping it breaks down by the time we get into winter. OK stay with us now JoMo. This winter will be nothing like last winter. Way too early to jump off the cliff yet man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 OK stay with us now JoMo. This winter will be nothing like last winter. Way too early to jump off the cliff yet man. That's true and all signs point to a more negative AO this winter, and El-Nino still lives. It's just not a good thing to see that storminess near Alaska. We still have a month or so until we start getting remote chances of snow though so hopefully that pattern will break down or retrograde more to the northwest or southwest up there by the time we get to December. The recent CFS v2 run is looking better but that changes on a weekly basis. The run up on Wxcaster shows a pattern in December of cold air on the eastern side of the Rockies with storm systems coming out of the southwest, which looks really good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That's true and all signs point to a more negative AO this winter, and El-Nino still lives. It's just not a good thing to see that storminess near Alaska. We still have a month or so until we start getting remote chances of snow though so hopefully that pattern will break down or retrograde more to the northwest or southwest up there by the time we get to December. The recent CFS v2 run is looking better but that changes on a weekly basis. The run up on Wxcaster shows a pattern in December of cold air on the eastern side of the Rockies with storm systems coming out of the southwest, which looks really good for us. That's good news. I'm really hopeful going into this winter. Don't know why just a gut feeling I guess plus the possible Nino that looms. Curious to see Doug's winter forecast this yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 JB always said the pattern in November the winter will remember. Hope we don't dry up next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 That's good news. I'm really hopeful going into this winter. Don't know why just a gut feeling I guess plus the possible Nino that looms. Curious to see Doug's winter forecast this yr. yeah, I'm hoping so. I've been watching the models and the GFS is breaking towards having a system coming across the US the 2nd week of Nov that looks to cool us down. It had been showing a pretty warm and boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 We're pretty much way ahead when it comes to snow cover. Hopefully that means this winter will be 'rockin. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 thats the best I've seen snowcover this early in some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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