MoWeatherguy Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Most of the early 00Z guidance now has it in either AR or E OK after landfall (with the notable exception of the eastern 'camp' which takes it into TN). Yeah was just checking out some other threads and noticed that. Hopefully the trend is west, for our sakes at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Total rainfall here in Monett today .90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Looks like the GFS has been joined by the Euro in bringing Isaac W in TX/OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Yes I think this is looking better for our region. Maybe a widespread heavier rainfall on the way? And the new 12z NAM looking like the Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 It should be fun to watch and track over the next couple of days that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The NHC simply does not want to move that track much further west than HWY. 65 (LZK to SGF)...not sure why exactly when the Euro, GFS and NAM are clustered between Fayetteville and Tulsa. Reading between the lines of the Tulsa discussion I get the feeling they are chomping at the bit to extend the QPF further west. But it seems they are constrained by the protocols that require them to follow the NHC and probably also the HPC. Anyway, looks promising for most of us in the area if the model consensus verifies. ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012/ DISCUSSION... THE FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE ISAAC HOLDS THE KEY TO THIS FORECAST. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND NOW SHOW A TRACK WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND NAM ARE FURTHEST WEST...WITH A TRACK BETWEEN OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET AND GEM ALL SHOW A TRACK ACROSS FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED JUST ON THE OKLAHOMA SIDE OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER. BASED ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE...WE HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND HAVE GONE JUST BELOW THE HIGH GFS MOS POP NUMBERS. WILL FOLLOW HPC QPF FOR NOW WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT QPF NUMBERS AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SPEED OF ISAAC WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 The NHC now has this tracking right overhead across the heart of the region late Thursday through Friday. Looks like the heavy rain axis should shift a bit west, too. It will be interesting to see what the forecast looks like in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 A consensus track near the AR/OK border could give some of you guys a tornado threat on Friday, though it would probably be maximized more from central AR to central/eastern MO. We shall see. I'm of course pulling for a huge westward shift (ala this morning's 06z NAM) to bring that threat well into OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 A consensus track near the AR/OK border could give some of you guys a tornado threat on Friday, though it would probably be maximized more from central AR to central/eastern MO. We shall see. I'm of course pulling for a huge westward shift (ala this morning's 06z NAM) to bring that threat well into OK. Not much change on the track per 12z NAM and GFS. Still appears to move N along the AR/OK border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 29, 2012 Share Posted August 29, 2012 Expecting around 2" of rain around here. I received 2.12" the other day and instantly the grass started turning green again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 I am interested in seeing the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted August 30, 2012 Share Posted August 30, 2012 Looking good for AR and MO...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 31, 2012 Share Posted August 31, 2012 A nice gentle 1.02" of rain here today. How much did you all get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 In Bartlesville 0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 I had 1.8" in my rain gauge. It seems the doppler estimates are too low. According to the radar estimates, I only received .7" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Another 0.95 since midnight last night. I can't believe how quickly the grass greened up, guess I'll have to mow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted September 2, 2012 Share Posted September 2, 2012 1.7 here storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Looks like a 15% or even 30% severe weather risk will exist tomorrow for Omaha, Lincoln, and Topeka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 This evening south of Eureka Springs. Never seen anything like these twins (do these have a name?). Fascinating to consider what conditions existed to create a pair of these. No other cloud build ups in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 This evening south of Eureka Springs. Never seen anything like these twins (do these have a name?). Fascinating to consider what conditions existed to create a pair of these. No other cloud build ups in the area. The term "orphan anvil" usually seems like a slight exaggeration. Not this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 And of course tornado sirens in Joplin for that storm. I don't think we made it up to 75 MPH though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 We apparently lucked out here. Just a few small limbs down around town that I saw. In fact, we had higher winds from Thursday night's storm. Several did not fare as well, however. Did you all see the KY3 story about Branson sounding the sirens for extremely high winds? I wonder what your thoughts are on that process. Seems like a grey area for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 We apparently lucked out here. Just a few small limbs down around town that I saw. In fact, we had higher winds from Thursday night's storm. Several did not fare as well, however. Did you all see the KY3 story about Branson sounding the sirens for extremely high winds? I wonder what your thoughts are on that process. Seems like a grey area for sure. Nope, I don't get KY3 but Joplin sounded them for high winds as well. The NWS said 70 MPH winds expected in the warning. The city isn't supposed to set them off unless they are 75+ There wasn't as much damage caused by the winds Friday as there was the other morning when no siren was sounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Really starting to like what I'm reading on Doug's blog as far as the upcoming fall and winter. Much more active pattern setting up with more cold and snow. http://weather.koamtv.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Really starting to like what I'm reading on Doug's blog as far as the upcoming fall and winter. Much more active pattern setting up with more cold and snow. http://weather.koamtv.com/ He thinks we'll have an active winter eh? I dunno, I've read all sorts of forecasts and nobody really agrees with what it's going to do this winter. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 He thinks we'll have an active winter eh? I dunno, I've read all sorts of forecasts and nobody really agrees with what it's going to do this winter. :-\ Doug was really good last yr I thought with the overall pattern recognition (warm, dry) so am gonna ride his coattails again this winter. I feel pretty good about this winter already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 Doug was really good last yr I thought with the overall pattern recognition (warm, dry) so am gonna ride his coattails again this winter. I feel pretty good about this winter already. Brett Anderson posted the ECMWF seasonal outlook: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/new-clues-about-the-upcoming-winter/72402 The CFS v2 is now back to non-torchy on the temps for Dec. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html The CFS v2 precip map does show a correlation in the precip department with Mr. Anderson's ECMWF outlook: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usPrece3Mon.html According to that study I posted in the previous years, ENSO neutral conditions often give us our biggest snows. It looks to be a weak El-Nino this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Not real crazy about any of those maps, except for maybe the wetter than normal close by per the Euro. The +NAO doesnt sound good, but that is hard to predict this far out. I'd settle for a normal winter actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Not real crazy about any of those maps, except for maybe the wetter than normal close by per the Euro. The +NAO doesnt sound good, but that is hard to predict this far out. I'd settle for a normal winter actually. A lot of it has to do with the AO. ENSO neutral with a -AO is a pretty cold look for much of the nation east of the Rockies. Unfortunately it drier lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 JAMSTEC updated for September. Colder and wetter for here, and the ENSO conditions are expected to be weaker. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Here's the CPC long range seasonal models for DJF. Temps: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Seas3.html Precip: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/usprate_Seas3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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