B.Sebo Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 It's my annual summer pop in! Had to give my top five list of weather events the past twelve years! 1. Christmas Eve Snow of 2009 - A lot of you all witnessed my epic meltdown that day, and then the level exuberance that is one of the greatest moments in my life! 2. The rest of winter 2009/10 when I saw my first four plus inch snowfall! 3. Spring 2011 - Although I was fortunate enough to be hit by a tornado, I will never forget the sheer hyperactivity of the pattern. 4. Ice Storm 2000 - Still the worst ice storm I have ever experienced. 5. Christmas Eve flurries in 2002 and 2004. As I say everytime I (rarely) post these days, I miss this community, I will try and do better and return to counterbalance Spot's pessism once we start to cool down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 It's my annual summer pop in! Had to give my top five list of weather events the past twelve years! 1. Christmas Eve Snow of 2009 - A lot of you all witnessed my epic meltdown that day, and then the level exuberance that is one of the greatest moments in my life! 2. The rest of winter 2009/10 when I saw my first four plus inch snowfall! 3. Spring 2011 - Although I was fortunate enough to be hit by a tornado, I will never forget the sheer hyperactivity of the pattern. 4. Ice Storm 2000 - Still the worst ice storm I have ever experienced. 5. Christmas Eve flurries in 2002 and 2004. As I say everytime I (rarely) post these days, I miss this community, I will try and do better and return to counterbalance Spot's pessism once we start to cool down! I remember the Christmas Eve snowfall you got and 2009/2010 was a good year for you. Sad that flurries made your list though... lol Another El Nino may be on the way for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 You Monett people ok? Big fire down that way. http://ozarksfirst.com/fulltext?nxd_id=675232 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I am okay. I have been out of town. Just got home and everyone in town is talking about the fire yesterday it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Anyone see any pattern change on the horizon? Jet stream changing and bringing us moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Anyone see any pattern change on the horizon? Jet stream changing and bringing us moisture? Not in the near term. The models want to break down the ridge in the long term but we'll see if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 19, 2012 Share Posted July 19, 2012 Pretty large fire near Diamond, MO now. I guess the one near Monett was accidentally started by a guy welding a fence. I do have kind of a fire break thanks to the tornado :-| EDIT: I just noticed Google Maps has new aerial maps of Joplin. They look about 1-2 months old but it shows the rebuilding in the tornado zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 21, 2012 Share Posted July 21, 2012 big fire out by diamond again. can see smoke from joplin. some evacuations near the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted July 22, 2012 Share Posted July 22, 2012 Maybe the ridge is going to flatten down some by the end of the week... maybe. I will believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Rained this morning, hoping for more this afternoon. SGF is releasing an 18z balloon to see when and where storms will fire and if they will be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Looking like most of the action today will be south into AR and SC MO. Its amazing to me how drought begats drought in a region and its hard to break out of it. We have seen this pattern of rain systems behave like this the past 2-3 events it seems. Frontal forcing comes thru and produces rains to our north overnite, dissapates during the day, and then re-fires to our south later in the day. Today looks like a carbon copy of that. NAM had it mostly correct, GFS totally wrong as usual. So frustrating. 2" of rain here since 6/1/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Well today sucked. Eventually the rubber band has to snap back the other way though. Hope that means we get a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Even though we got a near average 2" of rain well distributed through the month of July, the prior deficit and the tremendous evapotranspiration due to the excessive heat - we still seem to be getting drier (although the rate of deterioration has slowed some). Still not seeing any hope from the tropics and the NW flow just is not cutting it this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 My home weather station is sitting at 108º and it's kind of cloudy out. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Even though we got a near average 2" of rain well distributed through the month of July, the prior deficit and the tremendous evapotranspiration due to the excessive heat - we still seem to be getting drier (although the rate of deterioration has slowed some). Still not seeing any hope from the tropics and the NW flow just is not cutting it this year. Yup. It's been amazing to watch the slow and steady drought recovery we experienced from Oct-May get decimated in a matter of weeks. Now the landscape looks identical to this time last year, with surface temperatures/RH to match. Barring a tropical influence or highly-unlikely pattern change soon, it could be another hell of a fire season early this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 Yup. It's been amazing to watch the slow and steady drought recovery we experienced from Oct-May get decimated in a matter of weeks. Now the landscape looks identical to this time last year, with surface temperatures/RH to match. Barring a tropical influence or highly-unlikely pattern change soon, it could be another hell of a fire season early this fall. The upcoming fire season could conceivably be worse. The drought recovery experienced in the Southern Plains before the heat dome became entrenched caused a lot of vegetative growth, more than was experienced during the Spring of 2011 before last year's heat wave. That extra growth is now just becoming extra fuel for any future fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted July 30, 2012 Share Posted July 30, 2012 The upcoming fire season could conceivably be worse. The drought recovery experienced in the Southern Plains before the heat dome became entrenched caused a lot of vegetative growth, more than was experienced during the Spring of 2011 before last year's heat wave. That extra growth is now just becoming extra fuel for any future fires. Seems this was prophetic... large grass fires burning out of control now in Canadian and Payne Co. Current ob here is 107/49 for RH of 15%. I suspect this will become an almost-daily story over the next 1.5-2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin declare states of emergency for all 77 counties due to drought and record temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Well, it was cloudy today, still hot as hades though. December looks more moist. (got that el-nino thing going on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 The first two days of August look poised to outdo the worst of last year's heat wave for much of central and north-central OK. This is probably the best chance we'll have for many years to flirt with the seemingly-untouchable 113 F at KOKC from August 1936, the heart of the Dust Bowl. The best we could muster last year was 110 F. In fact, 1936 is the only year in recorded history we've ever reached 111 F or higher. Here's a climatology of H85 temperatures from every RAOB launched at KOUN since 1974: http://www.atmos.alb...t_72357_850.jpg We've never recorded an H85 temperature above 30.5 C, including last year. The NAM forecast for tomorrow is 32.0 C, and for Thursday is 31.7 C. The NAM and RAP both show a 115 F contour at 2 m encompassing much of central and northern OK at 21z tomorrow. They've been running a touch too warm the past few days, so I doubt we're actually going to see widespread obs that high. However, I imagine there will be one or two 115 F readings somewhere across the northern half of the state, and that even the OKC metro area will reach the 111-112 F range. If so, it will be the hottest day in 76 years. The only fly in the ointment is the possibility of cloud debris from any overnight MCS in CO/KS. This unexpectedly kept temperatures slightly in check today over a small corridor near I-35. With full sunshine through 4-5pm tomorrow, I wouldn't be shocked if we tied the record at 113 F. I wonder if this is the largest 115 F contour ever plotted by the NAM since its inception? I had images saved from last August and verified the day with absurd records in E OK and W AR never had a modeled contour nearly this big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Several Mesonet stations across N OK eclipsed the 110 F mark by 12:45pm. There's an outflow boundary from a decaying MCS surging southward that's playing havoc with the forecast, though. Some areas of far N OK into S OK will bust by 10-15 degrees as a result, but it could also enhance warming near and south of I-40 around peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 At 1PM, it's 106 at Will Rogers. It'll be interesting to see what happens when that outflow boundary approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Looks like C. OK is going to really cook during the next couple hours! Seems like the main impact of the outflow boundary is sliding east, both in terms of temps and the clouds. Meanwhile further east, looking a bit more promising for some action this afternoon. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1154 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012 ...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2012/ MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AT MIDDAY WHILE PATCHY CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. MEANWHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR PONCA CITY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI NEAR SEDALIA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACH OF THE MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A PITTSBURG KANSAS TO OSAGE BEACH LINE. PROGGED SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS. SO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Saw some 114°F around Stillwater and Tulsa on the Wunderground network Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 The first two days of August look poised to outdo the worst of last year's heat wave for much of central and north-central OK. This is probably the best chance we'll have for many years to flirt with the seemingly-untouchable 113 F at KOKC from August 1936, the heart of the Dust Bowl. The best we could muster last year was 110 F. In fact, 1936 is the only year in recorded history we've ever reached 111 F or higher. Here's a climatology of H85 temperatures from every RAOB launched at KOUN since 1974: http://www.atmos.alb...t_72357_850.jpg We've never recorded an H85 temperature above 30.5 C, including last year. The NAM forecast for tomorrow is 32.0 C, and for Thursday is 31.7 C. The NAM and RAP both show a 115 F contour at 2 m encompassing much of central and northern OK at 21z tomorrow. They've been running a touch too warm the past few days, so I doubt we're actually going to see widespread obs that high. However, I imagine there will be one or two 115 F readings somewhere across the northern half of the state, and that even the OKC metro area will reach the 111-112 F range. If so, it will be the hottest day in 76 years. The only fly in the ointment is the possibility of cloud debris from any overnight MCS in CO/KS. This unexpectedly kept temperatures slightly in check today over a small corridor near I-35. With full sunshine through 4-5pm tomorrow, I wouldn't be shocked if we tied the record at 113 F. I wonder if this is the largest 115 F contour ever plotted by the NAM since its inception? I had images saved from last August and verified the day with absurd records in E OK and W AR never had a modeled contour nearly this big. Great post, and great call! OKC reached 112F, and as you predicted, Kingfisher reached the fabled 115F. Just absurd. Today's maximum temperatures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 That's crazy. We had a small pop-up heavy rain shower here and it poured down rain for about 2-3 minutes. About 2 hours after it rained, it was like it had not rained at all. Everything was still crunchy and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Interestingly, the H85 verification on tonight's sounding was only 30.6 C, so the NAM and RUC were clearly too warm on that front. It is just barely enough to squeak out the honor of the warmest reading ever recorded at KOUN, though. Current guidance remains consistent in suggesting tomorrow will be about 1 F warmer in the absence of clouds and pop-up storms (which are more likely across E OK, if anywhere). I imagine OKC will top out at either 112 or 113 F and fail to break the all-time record outright, while the warmest Mesonet reading will be 116-117 F, matching last year's max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 The raw 00z NAM output has 117 in Tulsa tomorrow, although maybe some reason to lean conservative given Brett's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 117.9 somewhere in OK tomorrow according to NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 TUL still 98 as of the midnight OBS...was 100 as of 11PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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