Wx 24/7 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Is this spring or the middle of summer? Yeesh! It has been dry!!! By the way, JoMo... the city of Joplin is in our thoughts and prayers for the next several days. I know there are many memorial activities planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Is this spring or the middle of summer? Yeesh! It has been dry!!! By the way, JoMo... the city of Joplin is in our thoughts and prayers for the next several days. I know there are many memorial activities planned. Thanks, hard to believe it's been a year already, so much has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Is this spring or the middle of summer? Yeesh! It has been dry!!! This is actually worse than last year with regard to moisture. The death ridge did not really start til almost Memorial Day and we are already way below normal for May only .71. Some of you west of here did much much better with those stalled out fronts. Best wishes JoMo for the Anniversary. I am sure it is going to be hard for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Yeah, about a week or two before the tornado last year I was planting grass, figuring it could grow until the first week of July when it usually stops raining. About half of it survived due to the drought. I planted more about a week ago, so now it'll probably get really dry again, sorry! I can't wait until the 'circus' is over and the media all leave. Hopefully, everything will get back to normal after the 22nd. Reminder that "Witness: Joplin Tornado" will be on National Geographic Channel on May 21st at 9 PM I believe it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 It has been a little bit more active around here lately. At least we got a bit of rain. Looks like we could some more later today into tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Someone needs to take down the rain deflector shield over this part of NW AR. It was really disheartening to see that rain band fall apart to our west, only to reform to the east. So to change our luck, I am now irrigating the smaller treees in the orchard even though we are forecast to get over an inch of rain tonight. I probably should aso leave my car windows rolled down tonight, but not quite that desperate, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Sounds like a good plan Ozarkwx. We also came up with zero in the rain gauge overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted May 30, 2012 Share Posted May 30, 2012 Guys I am not liking that doughnut over our area. As of this morning the qpf forecast was for 1-2". Anyway, maybe the cluster of storms over Kansas can track more in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted May 31, 2012 Share Posted May 31, 2012 Got about an inch of rain here. That was nice. It seems almost chilly outside today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Picked up 1.40 of rain here today. Nice welcome sight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Only 0.2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted June 19, 2012 Author Share Posted June 19, 2012 12Z Euro shows widespread 105+ highs on June 27 (with Tulsa being at 110 at 7 PM)... here's an 850mb map... the area of 27.5C temps here is a little SMALLER than the 105F highs area, which I can't post because it's on a paysite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 20, 2012 Share Posted June 20, 2012 Not ready for this heat already. Maybe we'll get some rain tonight, it's starting to remind me of last year, but I am keeping my patch of grass alive this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 We were lucky and got about .7" of rain this morning. 105º? No thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Come Sunday-Monday, the 12z NAM shows us picking up right where we left off last July/August regarding temperatures. I'm very intrigued to see how it verifies, since drought conditions are nearly nonexistent now near and east of I-35. My hunch is that, unlike last summer, models forecasting widespread 105-115 F in this region will prove overzealous due to latent heating considerations. However, it won't take but a couple weeks of persistent ridging to change that and put us right back where we were a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 This looks crazy. Even my town is predicted to be 102 on Sunday. (Sunday afternoon, 00z ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 Jesus almighty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I should have posted the map for 21z Sunday. It's a bit hotter. You can look it up if you want to. By my estimation, 14 states have a chance for over 100 within their state on Sunday. CA NV AZ NM TX OK CO KS NE WY MT MO AR LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 22, 2012 Share Posted June 22, 2012 I should have posted the map for 21z Sunday. It's a bit hotter. You can look it up if you want to. By my estimation, 14 states have a chance for over 100 within their state on Sunday. CA NV AZ NM TX OK CO KS NE WY MT MO AR LA. Looks like at 21z Sunday, it has SLN at 117 F. The drought has actually worsened in much of KS, as opposed to the relief we've had further south, so this seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted June 23, 2012 Author Share Posted June 23, 2012 NWS TUL not pulling any punches for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I hit 102º today and my system generally runs pretty close with the ASOS equipment out at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Looks like we'll be heading into an El-Nino this winter, still not sure on strength though. It's summertime and crappy hot out now So, My top 5 weather events for here/the area in the last 12 or so years. What's yours? 1. Joplin EF-5 It's really going to be hard to beat this one, maybe a 2-3 foot blizzard? I hope I never see another tornado, heh. 2. Blizzard of 2011 This was awesome. I could deal with 3-4 of these a winter. I wish it would have had bigger flakes though. 3. Derecho on May 8th 2009 Crazy wind storm that blew though with winds gusting 60-80 MPH an hour after the storms blew though, also took down the KSN TV tower. 4. Picher, OK tornado on May 10th, 2008 This was close to hitting Joplin. This really woke me up to the threat that 'it could happen here'. 5. Ice Storm(s) of 2006-2007 I clustered these two together but the snow and ice storm of late 2006, followed by the ice storm of 2007 was crazy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 This list is imby. 2009 was a big year for Carroll County. 1. Ice Storm 2009 2. Christmas eve snow of 2002 3. Ike's remnants 2009 4. Spring Floods of 2009 5. Hot summer of 2011 Vying for a spot in the top 5 is the drought of 2012, which seems like a lock to bump off the summer of 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 This list is imby. 2009 was a big year for Carroll County. 1. Ice Storm 2009 2. Christmas eve snow of 2002 3. Ike's remnants 2009 4. Spring Floods of 2009 5. Hot summer of 2011 Vying for a spot in the top 5 is the drought of 2012, which seems like a lock to bump off the summer of 2011 Ah, yeah the 2009 Ice storm down there, that was the last week in January? I also remember the Christmas Eve snow of 2002. I had been following that storm for some time and the heaviest went south of here. I don't really remember Ike other than a lot of heavy rain, same for the Spring floods, and yes, this summer already sucks but I'm hoping we get a pop up thunderstorm or two on Monday so there won't be a lot of fires when it comes to the 4th of July. Finally found the Tulsa event review page but it looks like it's missing some: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=sigwxevents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Trying not to get my hopes up too high, but the 12Z GFS continues the trend of squeezing the evil high off to the west by early next week. Certainly looks to cool us off and looks like at least some shower activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Lots of storms around and pulse severe weather. Hope it makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Finally saw rain yesterday but it wasn't much here although some areas picked up a lot. Hoping for more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 For once in a long time the storms did not veer around Eureka Springs, and the rain caused quite a buzz around town. Still some of the mature white oaks are in distress losing leaves, some of them losing limbs and others dying. For the first time ever, I think I will have to watering the big 50+ year old trees before they start to show symptoms. No idea how much they need, but I guesss anything is better than nothing. We are at about half our annual average for rain at this point. If the front to hang up close to the region, we might actually get something to stop the deterioration in conditions or at least to give me a break from watering for a few days. Can someone explain what they mean in the bold text below? DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH WILL COVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. A W/E-ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TN/THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE WRN NORTH ATLANTIC. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM WILL OVERLAY THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE WEST...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A N/S-ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SWRN ORE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXTENSIVE...W/E-ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SWD WHILE LYING FROM THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...TO THE OH VALLEY...TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. ...LOWER MID-ATLANTIC TO THE OH VALLEY... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT /AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/...STRONG INSOLATION AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- I.E. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S -- WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO VERY STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AND...WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT...AUGMENTED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OWING TO DEBRIS CLOUDS TO ITS NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...THE MODERATE/VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH 20-30 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE CLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CORRIDORS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SVR WINDS...WITH SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. AREAS FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR...WHICH WILL FOSTER GENERALLY MORE DISORGANIZED/PULSE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY FORECAST TO BE PRESENT AND FAIRLY HIGH STORM COVERAGE...STORM MERGERS/LOCALIZED UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND PRECIPITATION-LOADING PROCESSES /GIVEN PW VALUES 1.75-2 INCHES/ WILL ALSO SUPPORT THIS THREAT. ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER-MS AND TN VALLEYS... LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AMIDST A BROAD AREA OF RICH DEEP MOISTURE -- PW VALUES OF 1.75-2 INCHES -- AND MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOWER/MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER A PREDOMINANTLY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH SPORADIC WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE IN CORRIDORS FOR ENHANCED SVR COVERAGE...ADDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN IDENTIFIED TO THE WEST/SOUTH OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...A COUPLE AREAS OF CONCERN EXIST: /1/ PARTS OF WRN TN/WRN KY/NRN AR/SRN MO/SRN IL: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY INTRUSION THAT EXTENDS FROM SERN GA INTO THE MID-SOUTH. A PERTURBATION NEAR THE MOIST/DRY INTERFACE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN CONUS RIDGE. GIVEN THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/ANVIL SHADING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERTURBATION PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO DELINEATE A SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. /2/ LOWER MS VALLEY: WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAY ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE SVR THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Basically they don't think the coverage will be sufficient enough to warrant a slight risk. But, just like yesterday, there will be a wind damage risk with any of the storms today probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 3. Ike's remnants 2009 Missed it by this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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