SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 This radar image is ridiculous, large area of 10-12 inches showing up already, and the area of rain has completely stalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I know this will change shortly, but there is a growing "storm cancel" vibe among people around me, who have waited all day for the expected 1-2" of rain, and still no more than a brief morning shower so far. Agreed... it is interesting that where the cutoff line set up yesterday evening, it basically stayed. We finally managed to get some precip overnight, but again the line has pivoted back west again. The difference in a few miles right now is the difference between 1" of rain and upwards of 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Although the rain has not lived up to expectations, last nights gust front was surprisingly strong (50mph) and perhaps higher next door where the neighbor's marginally engineered hobby greenhouse (but fairly well anchored) was ripped from the "foundation". Also some shingle damage to a well built roof. The suddenness and the noise made me wonder for a second if we had a little spin up for a few seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Any other reports of damage in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I drove around today and no evidence of anything major. I think we had a localized gust, and a very loud one at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Only 2.25" of rain here through the duration. I feel a little ripped off after all the hype. I didn't want 8-10" but a little bit more would have been nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Not sure how much exactly here but radar estimates are over 5.5" with the 7" estimate just to my west. 11" down in NE Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Tulsa got a ton of rain...just imagine for a second that all of this was snow!!!! What a dream that would have been! Some parts of Eastern OK would have gotten 60+ inches of snow...if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 We may see some isolated severe out of this tomorrow. If we get daytime heating, it's not out of the realm to see some thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds and cold air funnels or brief tornadoes tomorrow afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Cold air funnels. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 521 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 OKZ025-212245- OKLAHOMA OK- 521 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OKLAHOMA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT... AT 518 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHOCTAW...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. HAZARDS INCLUDE... HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS... FUNNEL CLOUDS... LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIDWEST CITY...CHOCTAW...SPENCER...JONES...NICOMA PARK...LUTHER... TINKER AIR FORCE BASE...FOREST PARK AND LAKE ALUMA. FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IF TORNADOES DO DEVELOP...WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TORNADOES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER... RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER IS OBSERVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Only 2.25" of rain here through the duration. I feel a little ripped off after all the hype. I didn't want 8-10" but a little bit more would have been nice. Yeah I know how you feel 24/7 I was starting to think the same thing until today's rain. Steady rain here all day has pushed my total to 3.2 so a good comeback. By looks of radar estimates I think Barry, Greene and some of the adjacent counties picked up the least amount of rain. Big winners were W and S of here and over the eastern Ozarks. Very nice soaking rains the past 48 hrs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Looking forward to the cold core of that upper low coming over the area tomorrow evening. Wonder what kind of surprises it may have in store for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Looking forward to the cold core of that upper low coming over the area tomorrow evening. Wonder what kind of surprises it may have in store for us? I would like to see a cold air funnel. Probably the only type of funnel cloud I'd want to see, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 I would like to see a cold air funnel. Probably the only type of funnel cloud I'd want to see, lol Hey, those occasionally touch down too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Hey, those occasionally touch down too. They aren't that strong though. I think we had some a few years ago that did touch down, they produced winds around 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 We ended up with 3.45" over the 3 day period, which on balance, is just about perfect for ending the dry-ish start to the year. The 2012 total prior to this storm was only 4.79". Meanwhile tonight there is a very cool looking ground fog that is so shallow that the stars show through easily. Regarding Thursday - This snippet from the evening Tulsa AFD - TOMORROW LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AS COLD CORE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NE OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Regarding Thursday - This snippet from the evening Tulsa AFD - TOMORROW LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...AS COLD CORE UPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NE OK. 12 AM Aviation update: UPPER LOW TRACKING DIRECTLY OVER NORTHEAST OK DICTATES AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY WIDESPREAD HAIL MAKERS MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT INCLUDE HAIL AT TAF SITES BECAUSE OF LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE RIGHT AT SITES. HAIL IN THE VICINITY OF AT LEAST SOME TAF SITES A FAIR BET. SPC OUTLOOK: ..CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...OZARKS COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SUITABLY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON...AMIDST WEAK MLCINH. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP...GREATEST TSTM COVERAGE BEING ALONG CYCLONICALLY CURVING MESOSCALE BANDS OVER NRN/ERN SEMICIRCLES OF DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT POCKETS OF 300-800 J/KG MLCAPE ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS. NON-SUPERCELLULAR FUNNELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Got an upgrade down south. ..SERN OK/WRN AR/NERN TX... STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND IN EXIT REGION OF 70-80 KT JET STREAK AT 500 MB WILL GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM INVERTED TROUGH OVER ERN OK/WRN AR SWD/SEWD ALONG WIND SHIFT INTO NERN TX. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST...BUT RECENT RAINFALL MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME EVAPOTRANSPIRATION THIS AFTERNOON...BOOSTING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 50S F. WHEN COUPLED WITH 500-MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C...MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 500 J/KG. THE CO-LOCATION OF ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 45-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 150-300 M2/S2. DESPITE THE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE DEGREE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. AS SUCH...THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Hmm for you Ft. Smith area ppl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND WESTERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 221834Z - 222000Z POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME HAIL /MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE/ AND SOME FUNNELS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN MO. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY. AS A CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW MOVES LITTLE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...A SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER JET EXIT REGION CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER CYCLONE. THIS IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH MODEST CLOUD BREAKS/LOW-LEVEL HEATING ALONG/JUST NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-PIVOTING WEAK ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE/WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM/MOIST ACROSS THE REGION...INHIBITION HAS DIURNALLY ERODED IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ACCORDINGLY...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY FROM NORTHEAST OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS/WESTERN MO. MEAGER TOTAL BUOYANCY WILL TEMPER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL NONETHELESS BE CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL. FUNNELS MAY OCCUR AS WELL GIVEN A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMBIENT VORTICITY IN PROXIMITY TO THE COLD/STACKED CYCLONE...BUT EVEN BRIEF TORNADOES SEEM UNLIKELY. GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER MARGINAL/ISOLATED...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Pretty rare to see these in the area. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 201 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012 MOZ077-088-089-221930- BARTON MO-JASPER MO-DADE MO- 201 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BARTON...NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND WESTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT... AT 158 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUDENVILLE...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE GROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Fairly certain I was watching one wander across the sky as I was driving home earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Fairly certain I was watching one wander across the sky as I was driving home earlier today. Lucky... No pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 23, 2012 Share Posted March 23, 2012 Vid of Cold air funnels near Wichita. http://www.ksn.com/news/local/story/Cold-air-funnel-caught-on-tape-west-of-Wichita/KK4tuSv100mTFyphr20PKA.cspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 24, 2012 Share Posted March 24, 2012 Fantastic day today across the region! What a stark contrast from even 24 hours ago. It is part of the reason I love living in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Strong/Severe storms possible today. Especially if a complex gets going across KS and moves SE. Going to have to watch the low-level CAPE values as they are pretty high and any boundary in the area may cause a spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanB Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 EAX thoughts on the severe weather potential in and near Kansas City today, tonight, and Thursday. Attention then turns to later this afternoon and evening for convective development initially further west across portions of central Kansas. The stalled frontal boundary will act as the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity as moisture pools along and south of the front and a subtle upper short wave trough currently across eastern CO translates across the region. Sufficient ascent from the aforementioned wave coupled with moderate to high instability (ie SBCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg) should prove adequate for convective initiation along the boundary across central Kansas. This activity is expected to initially remain semi-discrete and with adequate veering wind profiles with height to support a few supercell structures. The capping inversion will eventually weaken eastward down the boundary to support convection into east-central Kansas/west-central Missouri by late this afternoon and evening. Freezing heights will be relatively low by this time frame, which coupled with aforementioned moderate to high instability and steepening lapse rates would support large hail development in the more vigorous updrafts. Cannot rule out giant hail development as well should supercell structure be realized. In addition, DCAPE values climb at or above 1000 J/kg which should support a damaging wind threat. Uncertainty then arises as to the eventual evolution of any convection that develops. Current thinking is that the afternoon and evening activity will eventually congeal into a thunderstorm complex/MCS once cold pool processes begin to dominate. 0-6 Bulk shear of 35-40kts, MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg, and perpendicular low level wind vectors would support a forward propagating complex likely following the instability gradient southeastward across east-central Kansas into western and eventually central Missouri tonight. Should this evolution take shape, a transition to a predominant wind threat would likely take place. Depending on the mesoscale evolution of tonight`s activity, Thursday will once again provide adequate ingredients for severe weather potential. A more prominent upper short wave trough will move into the plains by Thursday afternoon with weak cyclogenesis across central Kansas. The stalled frontal boundary will begin lifting northward as a warm front as the sfc low shifts into eastern Nebraska. Convection is expected to initiate by the afternoon within the warm sector as the system shifts east. Fairly impressive directional shear profiles will develop along with overall increasing deep layer shear as the upper short wave trough approaches. All facets of severe appear possible by Thursday afternoon with again large to potentially giant hail given the ambient instability and certainly with any supercells. The tornado potential looks to increase by the late afternoon and evening as H85 flow strengthens, increasing low level helicity. However given the relatively light sfc flow, tornado potential will be more likely near the triple point and closer to the warm front. Activity will shift through the remainder of the area overnight Thursday and should exit by Friday morning. A nice weekend in the offing as broad upper ridging shifts overhead keeping the warm temperatures in place. The next upper short wave trough looks to slide into the plains by late in the weekend providing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday night/Monday morning. Thereafter, may see some cooler temperatures push into the region through the beginning of the work week as the sfc ridge builds southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 We may hit 90 tomorrow. Remind me what season we are in again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 http://news.yahoo.com/unsurvivable-tornado-warnings-aim-scare-212727744.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 yeah except I don't think that word is actually going to be used in the warning text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.