andyhb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Except the system now kills the Gulf moisture for the next one in the 54 hr period and then the stupid east coast troughing kills the Gulf moisture until the 264 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Holy smokes, this put me in a spring mood! There is a silver maple in front of the house starting to bud with these sweet blossoms. This afternoon the tree is swarmed with bees. Fairly loud buzzing. Trying to figure out if these are baby bees or some that are coming out of hibernation? In any case, perhaps prematurely, it feels like "real winter" is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Awesome image!!! The next few days wouldn't argue with your "winter's over" reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 I have no idea, the models have been terrible this year with large swings. I think we still may get at least another cold blast before Spring arrives but you can't be certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 00z GFS is bringing some light wintry precip in with much colder air. Been flip flopping and changing a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 00z GFS is bringing some light wintry precip in with much colder air. Been flip flopping and changing a lot. I've kinda stopped looking at the GFS for this system cause I haven't seen two runs alike for it for at least two days It looked like it was dropping something on the West Coast in the 150-156 hr period but really kinda failed to dig substantially and remained broad and less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 Really wish the models would come to some kind of agreement but I guess that's what you get. We may get some gusty winds and small hail tonight in parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 20, 2012 Share Posted February 20, 2012 12z Euro is nasty in that 168-216 hr period that it keeps showing run after run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z GFS had this before the truncation... Let's see if the 00z GFS has anything interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Maybe the beginning of a trend back towards the big system that it was showing several days ago? Although the ensembles have lost the signal for the bigger amplification for the most part, with most of them showing a boring, rather zonal flow pattern in this time period. Euro has been very consistent (pretty much has shown the same general solution since it first came into range), while the GFS has been all over the place, but with a generally less amplified pattern. The good thing is that the resolution change/truncation hasn't changed the solution on the Euro, as it has kept the powerful west coast trough into the 168 hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Slight differences between the 12z GFS and 00z GFS........ lol 12z GFS: 00z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 ...and there's what I mean lol. But yeah that's a pretty sexy phase right there, still too far north to get any kind of reliable Gulf moisture influence though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 00z Euro/GFS definitely have different ideas by 144. 990ish low over Colorado on the Euro that moves NE to arrowhead of MN as it drops down to like 980 MB GFS... 1000 MB low over IL/WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 lol at the fantasy storm on the 00z GFS at 228 - 300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Next week could get interesting according to the 12z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Hmm, 174-186 period with a weakening system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Yeah mostly KS and W MO for now but still a ways out. Things will more than likely change but at least something to look at for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Yeah mostly KS and W MO for now but still a ways out. Things will more than likely change but at least something to look at for now. Yeah I hope so. There are still massive model differences going on even in the short range. The Euro has really been bombing lows lately and that will have an impact on the solutions down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Long range looks better too. Subject to change of course lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z Canadian has a system ejecting out of the SW it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I wish wunderground's Euro wasn't down, but it does look like the 12z Euro has went towards the 12z GFS by a large amount when compared to the Euro from last night. Euro is a bit colder at 168 than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z GFS, there may be precip still ongoing, south of the snow area there is an area of freezing rain over S MO with primarily rain farther south. Most of the NWS in the area think that the moisture will be lacking and the GFS is overdoing this system. Euro also has a system but from what I read, a lot less precip. The Euro is also farther south with the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Such a shame that "storm" isn't about 125 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 00z GFS, less precip but a bit farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 So uhh, looks like the GFS changed it's mind, lol Strengthens a storm system as it passes over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 And the 12z Euro goes bonkers with a snowstorm for KS/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I mean.. some differences :-p GFS 144 Euro 144 GFS 168: Euro 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Wow at the Euro. Looks like it's traded places with the GFS. GFS has support from the Canadian and JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Wow at the Euro. Looks like it's traded places with the GFS. GFS has support from the Canadian and JMA. Yeah the Euro has been having some issues lately. 18z GFS is going dramatically colder to the north of here when compared to it's 12z run but it doesn't reach far enough south for us still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 00z GFS.. north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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