JoMo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The massive storm on Feb 25-27 looks to pretty much cover half of the US...crazy!!! It has been consistently shown on the GFS. Not to mention how cold the plain states could get....Winter is not over! Personally I'd like to see the entire thing get setup like the blizzard last year instead of a giant severe weather maker. It has been on the GFS but it has not been moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CST WED FEB 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN OK...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 151926Z - 152100Z A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN OK AND FAR S-CNTRL/SERN KS. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A WW IS UNLIKELY. AT 19Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN/N-CNTRL OK...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL OK INTO NRN TX. SURFACE WINDS W OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAVE ACCELERATED OUT OF THE W AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED BENEATH A MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN OK. MEANWHILE...LOW 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING NWD INTO N-CNTRL OK IMMEDIATELY E OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN STRONGER SURFACE HEATING OVER WRN OK AND MOISTENING OVER CNTRL/N-CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS MAY FAVOR ISOLATED SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW AOA 50 KT IS CONTRIBUTING TOWARD STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE EXCEEDING 70 KT/...WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SHEAR COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM SUGGESTS STRONGER CORES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL BE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO ENCOUNTER COOL/STABLE AIRMASS E OF THE FRONT /WHICH MAY LIMIT STORM PERSISTENCE AND STRENGTH/...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 One thing I noticed on the 12z models today, both the Euro and GFS were building ridging into Canada/Alaska at 240 and dropping a system into the west. This fits with the big storm somewhere over the central US thinking that has been showing up on the GFS from time to time. Todays location was over NE Colorado. This ridging should force colder air into the west and central US but it's unsure exactly where or how far. Here's the ridging on the GFS: And the EURO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just saw a post on facebook, sgf should be back in full service tomorrow morning. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Just saw a post on facebook, sgf should be back in full service tomorrow morning. Sent from my ADR6400L Yep, waiting on PYKL3 to update so I can get the dual-pol...and of course.. precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Haven't had much chance to check the models the last day or two. I am prepping for the GRE Exam in my spare time. Any big changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Alll 3 models have a monster storm system in the west at 240. GFS/EURO are developing a big low in the same area. Euro GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Finally some confluence/consolidation of the models regarding this mid-range system, seems the GFS was the only one on the train for what seemed like an eternity. Pretty damn remarkable agreement between the Euro/GFS there for the SLP, I've seen less agreement <24 hrs out let alone 240... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012 FROM TULSA DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST INTO TEXAS AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH THESE UPPER LOWS TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM WAS MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH RAIN SATURDAY THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT THE 06Z RUN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THIS AT LEAST ADDS A LITTLE BIT OF CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. WILL BEGIN LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TODAY BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH MOST PLACES RECEIVING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR MOISTURE RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL JUST SEE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK BUT BIG CHANGES MAY BE LOOMING BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH. COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL OOZE ITS WAY SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME....SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP SO IF THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR CAN COINCIDE WITH ANY IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN WE MAY FINALLY SEE A TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER AT SOME POINT. THIS IS WELL BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST HOWEVER BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT WENT A BIT COLDER FOR LOWS SUNDAY MORNING PER THE UKMET AND ECMWF. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...06 :whistle: :whistle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z GFS still continues to advertise the cold air in the longer range and a big system in the west that will induce southwest flow aloft which will bring periodic chances for frozen precip north of the cold air. The GFS is indicating that most of the precip would fall as sleet or freezing rain north of the front. This run it indicates that the system will stay in the west until around hour 300 when it pulls out and most of this would be sleet/freezing rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm not too worried about the temps right now. I think they will trend colder the closer we get. I'm just excited that all the models are picking up on this potential storm...However, I'm not thrilled with the idea of a crippling ice/sleet storm....that blows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This was the 00z GGEM... 00z CMC Ensemble: 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z Euro...holy crap... This is 216, huge trough: 240: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 12z Euro is out.. here comes the cold. Strong surface low is trying to form over NE Colorado on this run at 216. By 240, there is a strong surface low that has moved to SW Minnesota with cold air pouring in behind the system There would probably be severe weather for our area. At 240 there is a large trough in the west like the GFS, only the Euro is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like another powerful vort-max/impulse developing behind the lead shortwave at the end of the Euro's run. Not to mention that this would probably be a serious winter storm for the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looks like another powerful vort-max/impulse developing behind the lead wave at the end of the Euro's run. Not to mention that this would probably be a serious winter storm for the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Yep, it's still 9-10 days out though, actually moving closer now. I'm not sure about the Euro depiction as the cold air will be surging south probably quicker than it thinks which may lead to cyclogenesis farther south as well. That is, if it doesn't come out in multiple smaller waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 On the other hand, that weak system that develops in the 192-216 hr period and drops a front through the Gulf would probably limit svr potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So are you all thinking the 27th-4th of March could be a severe weather maker for our area or just one system would be? I was really hoping this would be our winter weather storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So are you all thinking the 27th-4th of March could be a severe weather maker for our area or just one system would be? I was really hoping this would be our winter weather storm. I looks thunderstormish to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nothing significant in this image, just wanted to show off to JoMo Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Nothing significant in this image, just wanted to show off to JoMo Sent from my iPad HD Soon...... Soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So are you all thinking the 27th-4th of March could be a severe weather maker for our area or just one system would be? I was really hoping this would be our winter weather storm. It could go either way... or both ways. Hard to tell and highly depends on the speed of the cold air and if the system comes out in pieces or all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Almost forgot, for anyone in the KOAM/KFJX viewing area. (Joplinmet's stations) In a week or two you will notice new graphics and a new radar system. They thought they should upgrade since our area gets a lot of severe weather. Joplinmet is pretty excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 00z GFS still has multiple pieces ejecting out causing ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 00z Euro wraps up a big storm system north of our area in Nebraska and SD. Then moves it to Wisconsin, looks like there is still a trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 216 hr is pretty crazy on the Euro, double-barreled sub 990 SLPs... GFS/GGEM have it eventually getting strung out across the Western CONUS, but are both pretty close, from the looks of it, to have it ejecting successfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 12z GFS backed down and looks more like the Euro last night with just a frontal passage now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 And the 12z Euro came in weaker and waaaaaay far north. Also weaker with the cold air behind the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 And the 12z Euro came in weaker and waaaaaay far north. Also weaker with the cold air behind the system What a tease... On the plus side, several of the GFS ensembles continue to show the big system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 18z GFS is pretty wild. Shows storm after storm dropping into the west and ejecting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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