MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 There has been a consistent signal on the NAM for an area of enhanced snowfall along and north of the AR river valley, or basically some of the higher terrain of the Boston Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I agree, I have a bad gut feeling about this one. Sorry I probly just jinxed us all lol Yea lets hope not man. It wouldnt take much in this crappy winter. It's kinda like we're all sitting around waiting on the other shoe to drop so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Any snow works for me, hopefully that heavier band works out though even if it doesn't stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 NWS Amarillo saying some locations in SE TX Panhandle could see 5 inch storm totals. Although I haven't paid too much attention to what the models showed out that way I don't recall totals being that high. Maybe that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Some schools are already calling off classes tomorrow and it isn't even close yet. LOL Berryville is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 849 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .UPDATE... MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. AT 8 PM THIS CLOUD DECK WAS JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 65...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES JUST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WHERE THE SKIES WERE CLEAR DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 20S...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S UNDER THE CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 10 PM. AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY IF NOT RISE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOPS ARE REALLY COOLING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. RADAR RETURNS ARE ALSO STARTING TO SPREAD INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND IN THESE INITIAL RADAR RETURNS. LIFT SHOULD START TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND RADAR RETURNS SHOULD START SHOWING UP ALSO ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A COUPLE HOURS TO START SEEING ANYTHING MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...SO LIKELY WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND UNTIL CLOSER TO 3 OR 4 AM ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71...5 OR 6 AM WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND AFTER 6 AM EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. WET BULBING WILL OCCUR AS THE DRY AIRMASS IS OVERCOME BY THE PRECIPITATION...AND AS THIS OCCURS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE GOING TO BE ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...ONCE PRECIPITATION STARTS FALLING...WET BULBING WILL COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. HAVE MODIFIED LOWS TO HOLD TEMPERATURES STEADY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA UNTIL PRECIPITATION FALLS...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER EAST A LITTLE FASTER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK AS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES STILL LOOK REASONABLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WIDE SPREAD SNOW. THINK THESE BANDS ARE LIKELY BUT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PIN POINT THEM UNTIL THEY DEVELOP. THINK LOCALLY AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WISE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 00z GFS snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 945 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... EVERYTHING IS PROGRESSING AS PLANNED WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS A PAWNEE TO OKLAHOMA CITY LINE AT THIS TIME. A FEW FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS...BUT THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS STILL WINNING ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 00Z UPPER AIR DATA...THE NEW 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF MAINLY SNOW TONIGHT EVEN DOWN IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH SNOW OCCURRING AS FAR SOUTH AS DALLAS AT THIS TIME...ALL OF THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY AROUND SUNRISE WITH THE MIXTURE ADVANCING NORTH AS THE MORNING GOES ON. TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST PLACES BUT IT MAY BE AROUND SUNSET BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY THAT TIME...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE GIVEN WAY TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE CURRENT FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW AT THIS TIME...SO TOTALS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GOOD AVERAGE SINCE THE LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL HEAVIER BANDS CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST IS TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS SOME AND TO LOAD IN NAM12 SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Honestly, the NWS Tulsa is lieing!!! We have NOTHING falling here in Tulsa!! Better hurry up and saturate the air or I am going to have to go to work tomorrow!! Come on snow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I think I will head to bed and get a little sleep while the atmosphere is saturating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Just pushed out 04Z Smartcast output. Showing areas around Ponca City, Stillwater, Lawton, and Wichita Falls with the heavier amount of snow through the next 6-12 hours of 2-3". While other areas across the TX/OK showing a 1-2" accumulaitons. While Abilene and Dyess, see some very light accumulaiton of ice possible for the next few hours. Full output uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Tulsa Upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for some counties. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1054 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 ARZ001-002-010-011-OKZ054>064-131300- /O.UPG.KTSA.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120214T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KTSA.WS.W.0001.120213T0454Z-120214T0000Z/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA- CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK- 1054 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY... FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... * IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE... PAWNEE...OTTAWA...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG AND NOWATA. IN ARKANSAS...WASHINGTON...MADISON...BENTON AND CARROLL. * THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A SLEET ...FREEZING RAIN MIX DURING THE DAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. * WIDESPREAD 3 TO 4 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TENTHS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Not a flake is falling from the sky and we are in a WSW??? Somebody explain to me why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Not a flake is falling from the sky and we are in a WSW??? Somebody explain to me why. It's all off to your west but moving that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looks like the snow line is probably in the area where the dewpoints are in the 20's (green numbers) and the air that has yet to saturate is the dewpoint in the 10's are lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We have snow...finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I dont think its ever going to snow 50 miles east s east of Tulsa. Dewpoint of like 10.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah...the dewpoints are terrible!! I didn't expect that to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 I dont think its ever going to snow 50 miles east s east of Tulsa. Dewpoint of like 10.. Freakin dewpoint is 4 here! Radar is filled in now over me just about but its all virga still. Temp is like 34 here but Im not to concerned with that, once the stuff does start to fall it will wetbulb some probly. The longer things take to saturate though the more thats wasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 We have snow...finally Yay congrats! Now get out there and do a snow dance for the rest of us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yea my dewpoint went up from 4 or 5 to 10 in like 3 hours... so im not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yay congrats! Now get out there and do a snow dance for the rest of us lol LOL...I'm all over it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Just jumped to 14, Spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Maybe another hour or 2.. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Just jumped to 14, Spot. Hey Jomo is there a site you can get area wide dewpoint maps from for missouri like you posted above? Im interested in that. Im just using weatherunderground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hey Jomo is there a site you can get area wide dewpoint maps from for missouri like you posted above? Im interested in that. Im just using weatherunderground right now. Nah, that's the OK mesonet so they are close together. You can see the entire area by clicking on this surface map tho. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Nah, that's the OK mesonet so they are close together. You can see the entire area by clicking on this surface map tho. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/ Ah ok well that works good enough ty man. I did go to the other site but couldnt find nothing other then OK lol. Thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Looks like the heaviest will be over OK and AR based on recent RUC runs. Anyway, time to catch some shut eye for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It is snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Went to bed at 3am got up just now to 2" on the ground allready. Coming down pretty good to, off and on nature but sometimes the flakes get real fat and it comes down really good. The winds are starting to howl and my temp is down to 28, crazy! Allready got the expected totals lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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