JoMo Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Looks like most of the 0z models came in a bit colder for the Sun nite/Monday system, which could spell a longer period of snow and less wintry mix if it were to verify. Yep the NAM is still more juiced than the GFS/GGEM though. Euro came in a bit colder as well with a bit more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Yep the NAM is still more juiced than the GFS/GGEM though. Euro came in a bit colder as well with a bit more precip. 12z NAM still juiced this morning. Has a 6" bullseye over Joplin. GFS not as robust - looks a bit warmer than its 0z run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 And 12z GFS is coming in a bit warmer. I'll take the NAM once it gets within 24 hours since it will have a better thermal resolution and be able to handle the colder air better when compared to the global models with the coarser resolution. Been seeing the signal for convective precip farther south which may cause some issues with the amount of moisture available farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 As much as the NAM is dissed with great gusto at times, I believe it was the one that nailed one of our blizzards last year. I think it was the of Feb. 9 last year. I know Waterboy will remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 As much as the NAM is dissed with great gusto at times, I believe it was the one that nailed one of our blizzards last year. I think it was the of Feb. 9 last year. I know Waterboy will remember that one. I was just looking at pictures of that storm the other day. I had 17 inches IMBY. Now I'd be happy with 1.7 inches! LOL! My how things change in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Parts of Arkansas have a Winter Storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Could be some upright convection embedded in this broad WAA precip shield. A rather pronounced warm nose with decent CAA aloft could set the stage for some surprises. Probing through Bufkit analyses reveals a prolonged duration of practically vertical theta-e surfaces. As it stands, if the models are even slightly off (too cool) on the strength of the warm nose, we'll be seeing considerably more convective elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Could be some upright convection embedded in this broad WAA precip shield. A rather pronounced warm nose with decent CAA aloft could set the stage for some surprises. Probing through Bufkit analyses reveals a prolonged duration of practically vertical theta-e surfaces. As it stands, if the models are even slightly off (too cool) on the strength of the warm nose, we'll be seeing considerably more convective elements. The Euro does have a convective looking nature to the precip that I've been seeing off and on for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Could be some upright convection embedded in this broad WAA precip shield. A rather pronounced warm nose with decent CAA aloft could set the stage for some surprises. Probing through Bufkit analyses reveals a prolonged duration of practically vertical theta-e surfaces. As it stands, if the models are even slightly off (too cool) on the strength of the warm nose, we'll be seeing considerably more convective elements. Csnnaywx (or someone) I think I need a translation on this, but it sounds interesting. Does this indicate the potential for an axis of heavier precipitation similar to 2011 blizzard referenced in post 784? What time would this potential be likely to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Looking at the latest model data looks like northern ark and extreme southern mo will get the worst of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 00z NAM The NAM even shows some banding that you can pick out N of the 850 MB front in SW MO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Would be interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 And the 00z GFS is getting more and more anemic. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 933 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012 .DISCUSSION... ALL IS QUIET TONIGHT. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE TO RAISE DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AND RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SLIGHTLY. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES THE TREND OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH HEAVIER QPF THAN ALL OTHER MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY EVENT. THE GFS HAS LESS QPF THAN ALL OTHER MODELS. SINCE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE AMOUNT OF QPF WILL DETERMINE WHAT THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA AT THIS POINT IN TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 0z GFS less robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Then we have quite the battle shaping up between US models. Perhaps the answer lies somewhere in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I like your thinking. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 00z Euro probably more towards the GFS, but it still has that convective look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Looks like a compromise was the best solution as the GFS has came in a bit wetter and the NAM has gone a bit more dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 I'm liking the trend here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Temps look to be iffy tomorrow afternoon according to springfield, they are now concerned some areas could go over to just plain drizzle. I see alot more mix in my forecast to now, earlier it was mainly all snow 1-2" expected. Wait and see what happens I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This is about what I expected with the gradual warming of the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 This is about what I expected with the gradual warming of the temps. Me too. Honestly, I am more concerned about dry air than I am about the warm temps. Most of the snow will be done falling by the time the temps warm anyway. This snow obviously isn't going to stick around for a long time so whether it ends as drizzle or not won't make a huge difference in the scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Everything is going as planned? This is what was going to happen all along. Best chance of snow tonight and early tomorrow morning before things mix and warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Everything is going as planned? This is what was going to happen all along. Best chance of snow tonight and early tomorrow morning before things mix and warm up. I wonder why SGF isn't updating their graphical snowfall map? It still shows 0 snowfall forecasted. I would assume emergency managers and such would want to see that graphical product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Everything is going as planned? This is what was going to happen all along. Best chance of snow tonight and early tomorrow morning before things mix and warm up. Yea man Im not expecting the world but jeesh this winter is just one let down after another....sighhhh lol. A few days ago and this morning it sounded so mouth watering but not so much anymore haha. Darn sun angle isnt gonna help either this time of year. Oh well hopefully we can pull off a lil snow before late morning ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The 00z NAM has 2 areas of precip, the initial band will move through after midnight and weaken, then another heavier band develops over central and southern OK and moves NE into the area around midday tomorrow. Then it'll either be rain/freezing rain(drizzle)/snow through tomorrow evening. This is what the Euro has been showing for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Starting to wonder if we'll even see our 2". Guess it all depends on how soon we start the transition and/or lose cloud ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Starting to wonder if we'll even see our 2". Guess it all depends on how soon we start the transition and/or lose cloud ice. I agree, I have a bad gut feeling about this one. Sorry I probly just jinxed us all lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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