JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 No big shock on the 00z GFS Ensemble mean. Just waiting on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 For those worried about the event overnight in SW MO, Wichita had snow with temps of 34-36 degrees. Don't be shocked if you wake up to a glopy 1" on the grassy areas, but given how warm the ground has been, it should not be a problem on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00z Euro came in about the same as it did last night. Less precip than the 00z GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yep, I am a bit shocked at the way its keeping things consistant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Its looking like 1-3 inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanB Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Arctic front has plowed through Kansas City this morning with a stiff north wind and temps crashing from about 38 around 5 AM…looks like were around 29 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At looking at the lastest model data this appears to be only minor event :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 At looking at the lastest model data this appears to be only minor event :-) What model are you looking at that tells you its only a minor event? You seem to throw a lot of generalities around here but never anything to back up your reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think Springfield is right though. This will probably start as snow but transition to a mix of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think Springfield is right though. This will probably start as snow but transition to a mix of stuff. Yeah the 12z GFS didnt offer many changes but it still appears to be a potentially dicey situation. With the arctic air trapped at the surface we could have an icing issue even if we dont get all the snow we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 What model are you looking at that tells you its only a minor event? You seem to throw a lot of generalities around here but never anything to back up your reasoning. I was ooking at the forecast of 1-3 inches I wouldnt consider that a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I was ooking at the forecast of 1-3 inches I wouldnt consider that a major event. It's all relative. In a winter like last year I agree this would be considered minor. But when it's Feb 10 and most of the region has yet to see > 1" snow then a 3" snowfall is more than minor to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Special Weather Statement out of TUL: ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKING LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION COULD MEAN IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...USHERING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON INTO THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD CAUSE SUBZERO WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO AND OVER THE AREA...LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SNOW AND SLEET TO TRANSITION TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TO RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS...AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THESE FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE NOT FINAL. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE REFINED AS NEW DATA ARE ANALYZED OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES OR SIMILAR MAJOR ICE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MINOR ICE RELATED IMPACTS MAY OCCUR AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think the main issue with this system will be travel Monday morning. I like the fact they are only expecting minor accumlations of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think this system needs to be watched closely. I'm thinking Frz rain will be very possible with this type of cold air masses departing. I think iso amounts up to a quarter inch of ice is possible in a possible pure frz rain zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 If this storm speeds up like I think it will the amounts will be reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Springfields afternoon writeup was interesting. They say the models show all snow but things usually dont happen that way with this kind of a setup. They are also saying alot of dry air is gonna have to be overcome and now bumping totals way down. Will we get bit again lol. Man I would really just once like to see a few inches of snow. I dont think this sounds to be anything major but its still got a few days to change, the bad thing is people were driving like complete crazy fools the last little bit of snow we had here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Henry from Accuweather says light snow as well....nothing major at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The models aren't hinting at a major system and this isn't usually the type of system that will give you a lot of snow. A mixture of precip on cold road surfaces Sunday night may lead to a lot of problems though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Jo ur right mon morning commute will be interesting. Hopefully its melted away by lunch travel. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The models aren't hinting at a major system and this isn't usually the type of system that will give you a lot of snow. A mixture of precip on cold road surfaces Sunday night may lead to a lot of problems though. Yea, I was looking at those wxcaster gfs and nam snow maps. Dont really know how old they are or whatever but the gfs looks bullish on that with snowfall, paints 5 inches up here while the nam paints around 2-3. and yea the roads are gonna be bad with zr and snow. When we had that light glazing(very minor) of ice not long ago our road was horrible man. They dont even touch this road unless we get 4 inches of snow on it! The mail lady lost it and went off the road onto the side into the water runoff ditches 8 feet down. She was all shaken up, I was walking the dog and we ran over to her, poor gal was a mess scared out of her mind but I just talked to her and calmed her down until the tow truck came. She was fine but the car was screwed lol. Anyways this road was just a solid sheet of ice there was no getting down it until the crap melted so I can only imagine sunday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Yea, I was looking at those wxcaster gfs and nam snow maps. Dont really know how old they are or whatever but the gfs looks bullish on that with snowfall, paints 5 inches up here while the nam paints around 2-3. and yea the roads are gonna be bad with zr and snow. When we had that light glazing(very minor) of ice not long ago our road was horrible man. They dont even touch this road unless we get 4 inches of snow on it! The mail lady lost it and went off the road onto the side into the water runoff ditches 8 feet down. She was all shaken up, I was walking the dog and we ran over to her, poor gal was a mess scared out of her mind but I just talked to her and calmed her down until the tow truck came. She was fine but the car was screwed lol. Anyways this road was just a solid sheet of ice there was no getting down it until the crap melted so I can only imagine sunday night! Yea with this cold air comming in expect things to get icy with only small amounts of ZR for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I dont even want to imagine how bad this could have gotten with more moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NWS TULSA seems to be painting 2-3 inches of snow on their maps for much of their forecast area. I dunno if I agree with that because with the WAA I think sleet and frz rain will be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Congrats ouamber and okie. You've won the 18z NAM total snowfall fantasy prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 18z NAM to bad.. Still I do see the chance of more snow then ive seen this year. OF course it could be mostly ice/rain sleet to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Springfield AFD: SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AN EPISODE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY ON PRECIP TYPE. WITH A COLD AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE...WHATEVER PRECIP TYPE IS FALLING WILL STICK TO EXPOSED SURFACES. AS A RESULT WE URGE EVERYONE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PRECIP TYPE/AMOUNTS GET FURTHER REFINED. EXPLICIT MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ALL SNOW SITUATION...THOUGH IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO UNDERDO THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE (IN PART DUE TO RESOLUTION ISSUES). IN ADDITION...INCIDENCES OF SNOW EVENTS WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FEW/FAR BETWEEN. AS ALLUDED TO IN LAST NIGHT/S FORECAST DISCUSSION...THE SLU-CIPS ANALOG WEB SITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE EVENTS WHERE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES OCCUR. AS A RESULT...HAVE PRECIP BEGINNING AS SNOW WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS GRADUALLY FOLDED INTO THE FORECAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES EDGE CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH EXPECTED PRECIP TYPE VERY...VERY CLOSELY WITH FORECAST UPDATES THIS WEEKEND AS IT WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL EFFECTS ON EXPECTED ACCUMULATION. AT THIS POINT...THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS PRODUCE AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF (GIVE OR TAKE). MOST OF THAT SHOULD GO TOWARD SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH AROUND TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION OF MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION...ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. Tulsa: A WINTER PRECIP EVENT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL FALL INTO THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN HOW DRY THIS AIR MASS IS...WET BULB COOLING WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS MAINLY ALOFT...A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST OK STRETCHING INTO NORTHWEST AR ON MONDAY. FORECAST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL IN THE ADVISORY RANGE. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Congrats ouamber and okie. You've won the 18z NAM total snowfall fantasy prediction. YAH BUDDY!! I'm the big winner of freezing rain and sleet!!! Really, Has the NAM EVER been correct??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 The 21-23 looks interesting on the 12Z GFS as well as around the 26-28...hopefully one of those will pan out and give us a real winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Looks like most of the 0z models came in a bit colder for the Sun nite/Monday system, which could spell a longer period of snow and less wintry mix if it were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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