Wx 24/7 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Let's just not dangle a snow event in our faces only to rip it away at the last minute. That's all I ask... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 LMBO at this!!!! RIIIIIGGGGHT! Let's hope and pray the temps on all these potential storms goes colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z GFS is colder than the 12z through 51 so far, so fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This GFS run is going to be interesting and it's only out to about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Fingers crossed!!!!!! Toes crossed!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well, eh... maybe a little cooler, less precip showing up.... Hoping this is a case of the GFS warming a cold airmass up too quickly. It's colder with a stronger HP pushing down but by the time the storm system gets here, it has warmed up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I still think this is going to be a mostly rain event the models are overdoing the cold. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I still think this is going to be a mostly rain event the models are overdoing the cold. :-( What reasoning synoptically do you have to back that up? You keep posting that, but I haven't seen why. Just curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Very active... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Very active... That cutter in IL and the trough across the SW were very close to merging together into one large system about 24 hrs previously in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That cutter in IL and the trough across the SW were very close to merging together into one large system about 30 hrs previously in the run. Yeah, I actually thought they would have when I saw it. Kicked out the first low though and took it's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I kind of have a bit of a hard time believing the two systems would stay separate in the situation that the GFS suggests, considering the second piece of jet energy is quite close behind for a substantial amount of time prior to the ejection of the initial wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just gonna be so close on seeing something before it changes to rain... Waiting on the Euro now... Hopefully the models will get cooler once we get closer to the event, kind of like how they are cooling things off for SW KS, NW OK, N TX with the system coming in tomorrow/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z Euro is warming up a bit at 850... At 120 though it isn't too far off from last nights 00z run at 850 MB. It is cooler than the 00z GFS at the same time. Wunderground isn't that far out yet to see surface temps and precip yet. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 00z Euro says we're still good for snow. It's getting close though, wish this was only 24 hours away, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Im just glad its snow and not ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks like 12z GFS may be coming in colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 12Z GFS has knocked off temps, 850 temps look good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Does anyone know of a good weatherblog for sw mo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yeah a little cooler but with less precip this run on the 12z GFS. It remains really active though with large run to run changes in the medium and long range. Looks like the GGEM is having issues on their website since it isn't updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 yeah a little cooler but with less precip this run on the 12z GFS. It remains really active though with large run to run changes in the medium and long range. Looks like the GGEM is having issues on their website since it isn't updating. Since the GFS may be starting to trend cooler I'm gonna ride the Euro and hope for the best with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 On the overall 500 MB look at Day 5, the Euro is winning big with even the Canadian beating the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Looks good. I wonder how it does with temps and WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still looking ok on the 12z Euro.. The precip wants to come in two waves. One farther north at 93 or so and one at 102 or so. The latter would probably be more during the day when surface temps want to rise to near or above freezing from just west of Joplin down to just north of Ft. Smith. 850 MB is sufficiently cold, and I can't see the other levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Be nice to have some precip totals from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Its been so boring this winter. But with the first chance of a bit of winter precip i'm awake now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Be nice to have some precip totals from the Euro. 12z Euro qpf for JLN MON 12Z 13-FEB -1.1 -3.4 1019 82 100 0.08 555 541 MON 18Z 13-FEB 1.3 -0.9 1015 80 95 0.05 552 540 TUE 00Z 14-FEB 0.6 -1.8 1011 93 82 0.13 547 538 TUE 06Z 14-FEB 0.4 -2.1 1012 99 71 0.05 548 539 TUE 12Z 14-FEB 1.0 -1.0 1014 98 21 0.01 552 541 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z Euro qpf for JLN MON 12Z 13-FEB -1.1 -3.4 1019 82 100 0.08 555 541 MON 18Z 13-FEB 1.3 -0.9 1015 80 95 0.05 552 540 TUE 00Z 14-FEB 0.6 -1.8 1011 93 82 0.13 547 538 TUE 06Z 14-FEB 0.4 -2.1 1012 99 71 0.05 548 539 TUE 12Z 14-FEB 1.0 -1.0 1014 98 21 0.01 552 541 Tks for the post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 12z Euro qpf for JLN MON 12Z 13-FEB -1.1 -3.4 1019 82 100 0.08 555 541 MON 18Z 13-FEB 1.3 -0.9 1015 80 95 0.05 552 540 TUE 00Z 14-FEB 0.6 -1.8 1011 93 82 0.13 547 538 TUE 06Z 14-FEB 0.4 -2.1 1012 99 71 0.05 548 539 TUE 12Z 14-FEB 1.0 -1.0 1014 98 21 0.01 552 541 Could you pull the precip totals for Tulsa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Could you pull the precip totals for Tulsa? TUL MON 06Z 13-FEB 2.9 -3.3 1022 47 100 0.01 560 543 MON 12Z 13-FEB 0.9 -2.4 1018 81 80 0.08 556 542 MON 18Z 13-FEB 1.5 -0.4 1014 91 100 0.11 552 541 TUE 00Z 14-FEB 1.9 -0.6 1010 96 67 0.08 548 540 TUE 06Z 14-FEB 2.4 -1.2 1012 98 61 0.01 551 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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