FSMweather Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Lol. I'm fine if we don't get a winter now. Februrary has usually been the transformation month when it comes to seasonal changes in our area. Aside from last year, I'm actually rooting against winter weather for my area now. Unfortuntely it is looking like we will get some of that Tuesday night. Although it will be a trace or less. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 18z GFS on the Day 10+ system.. Imagine this as snow, lol This would be good for a lot of us, Sorry Arkansas people. Obviously going to change, but that thing on the 18z GFS would probably be a svr wx maker on the warm side as well. Although, 12z was just scary strong with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 0z GFS is spitting out some accum. tomorrow night now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Eh it's not too much tomorrow night. 00z GFS is swinging around to the Euro idea of a bigger storm system in 6 days or so. The run is still going but it moved greatly towards the Euro. Really going to have to watch the temps on this one as the Euro is much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Looks like it has the makings of a bigger system in the 8+ day range as well, like several previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yeah, it holds the D10+ system back over the SW this run and a small piece pops out. I'm interested in the D6 system now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 00z GGEM also has the D6 system. 2 of 3 so far... 3 of 3 if you count the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yeah, it holds the D10+ system back over the SW this run and a small piece pops out. I'm interested in the D6 system now. If all that energy shown on the W Coast in this time frame (which has been shown on the operationals and even ensembles for several models today including all four GFS runs) becomes consolidated and ejects as one or even two well organized trough(s), then that could be a serious deal for all facets of potential activity (snow, rain, svr wx, etc). 00z run looks to have two less potent troughs, one around the 204-228 hr time frame and one several days later that gets hung up on the SW coast as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 If all that energy shown on the W Coast in this time frame (which has been shown on the operationals and even ensembles for several models today including all four GFS runs) becomes consolidated and ejects as one or even two well organized trough(s), then that could be a serious deal for all facets of potential activity (snow, rain, svr wx, etc). 00z run looks to have two less organized/potent troughs, one around the 204-228 hr time frame and one several days later that gets hung up on the SW coast as you mentioned. yep, the previous runs have it more consolidated and bring out a big system. That is still very much possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yep, the previous runs have it more consolidated and bring out a big system. That is still very much possible. Especially the 12z GFS, that thing was all sorts of nasty... Actually, looking at the 12z Euro at 240 that you posted on the previous page along with the GFS at the same time, that is impressive how close those two solutions were for being 10+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 00z Euro still has snow streaking out with the Day 5-6 system but it isn't as strong and it's colder than the GGEM/GFS. All 3 models agree on a system. And bringing the system out at Day 10 as an open pos tilt trough. Not sure what happens after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 00z Euro still has snow streaking out with the Day 5-6 system but it isn't as strong and it's colder than the GGEM/GFS. All 3 models agree on a system. And bringing the system out at Day 10 as an open pos tilt trough. Not sure what happens after this. Looks pretty similar to what the 12z GFS/Euro had at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yeah at 240, it's starting to spin up an 850 MB low over E TX but it's the 240 hour Euro so it'll change a bunch, it's not holding anything back like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 6Z GFS is still showing too warm for the Sunday/Monday system, but the 12Z Euro is still holding onto it, but the freezing line has trended North with that model. I'm hoping the GFS goes colder on the next runs and King Euro rules! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 6Z GFS is still showing too warm for the Sunday/Monday system, but the 12Z Euro is still holding onto it, but the freezing line has trended North with that model. I'm hoping the GFS goes colder on the next runs and King Euro rules! 12z Euro doesn't come out for another 2 hours or so? You mean the 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yes, I meant the Oz:) Some of the OKC mets are beginning to hit about the Sunday/Monday system, Tulsa mets are sticking to the 50s. Can't believe the model temps are so far off from each other. Hoping they both trend cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yes, I meant the Oz:) Some of the OKC mets are beginning to hit about the Sunday/Monday system, Tulsa mets are sticking to the 50s. Can't believe the model temps are so far off from each other. Hoping they both trend cooler. Well the 12z GFS is out to 102 and it's colder than the 00z so far with precip starting to develop out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 12z GFS is colder and would be a big snow maker for roughly 1/2 the area. The one issue I see is that it pulls the polar lobe or whatever that thing is over SE Canada away and we lose our cold air connection. Here's the difference at the 850MB. At 156 on last nights GFS, that system is still sitting up there with 850 MB temps of -30 in the far upper right of this image, you then see the -20 and -10 line with the 0 line going across SE Kansas. On todays 12z run today at 144, you can see everything has shifted towards the upper right which means that system has moved eastward. (other than the 0 degree line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Overall, I'm happy with the entire run, if we can get more sustained cold to come down, the 12z GFS looks great and will give us multiple chances for snow and active weather. This is pretty much the first time this winter I've actually been somewhat excited about a threat, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Yeah I agree the long range is finally showing some consistent "threats". Let's see if that translates to actual snow on the ground with one of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z GGEM actually shows a bit of precip at 72 as well as the other system. GGEM at 150: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Those maps look good, would really like to be colder though. I don't want transient cold....and I don't want ice!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 12Z Euro definately keeps the Sunday/Monday storm, but as fast as it comes in, that PV hightails to the east and we are back warm again on Tuesday. The Feb. 14/15 storm seems to take a more northern track towards KC/Iowa....that whole 144Hr-180HR just looks mighty fast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 12z Euro still has a system, it's not as robust as it was previously and the temps are starting to warm since the next system is stronger and dropping into the west. The first system really falls apart but hopefully not before we all get some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 12Z Euro definately keeps the Sunday/Monday storm, but as fast as it comes in, that PV hightails to the east and we are back warm again on Tuesday. The Feb. 14/15 storm seems to take a more northern track towards KC/Iowa....that whole 144Hr-180HR just looks mighty fast!! Well it will be mid-feb and the snow doesn't usually stick around long this time of the year. I'll be happy to actually see some snowfall other than the flurries we've had. It's really all you can ask for in this terrible winter. Is it just me or do the precip maps have a 'convective' type look to them, especially once you get to 150+, looks like pockets of heavier snow on the snowfall maps as well, hmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Well it will be mid-feb and the snow doesn't usually stick around long this time of the year. I'll be happy to actually see some snowfall other than the flurries we've had. It's really all you can ask for in this terrible winter. Is it just me or do the precip maps have a 'convective' type look to them, especially once you get to 150+, looks like pockets of heavier snow on the snowfall maps as well, hmm? Yea, I'm seeing that heavy pocket right over NE OK LOL...I'm sure that WILL CHANGE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 yeah the good thing is that all 3 major models now show snow for a majority of the area. Let's hope they keep showing that for the next 5 days, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 You know it's going to get more active since Springfield's radar goes down for the dual pol upgrade on Feb 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Good consensus on the global models WRT a system coming thru early next week. Temps appear to be the big wildcard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Let's pretend the 18z GFS never ran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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