JoMo Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 12z Euro says "no". Cuts off a low over NM. Without that N stream system phasing in, there is just not enough cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Oh well. I'm not gonna discount the GFS just yet. Too desperate lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Hey JOMO where do you get the canadian past 144 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Hey JOMO where do you get the canadian past 144 hrs? ewall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The GFS is being just plain cruel to us this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 lol, ok, thanks, I never go there, forgot about that site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I have little confidence in any guidance beyond day 4. As HM pointed out in the main page medium discussions a couple of days ago, the models will struggle with this transition pattern from run to run. Expect daily changes, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Oh well. I'm not gonna discount the GFS just yet. Too desperate lol. Considering the large changes from run to run this year, I wouldn't count out anything. Yesterday's 12z Euro run: Todays 12z Euro run for same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I am expecting good news posted from you all when I log in tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Its not looking good for us snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Well the 12z GFS cuts off a storm system over the SW and leaves us pretty dry until it kicks out as rain, however, the ensemble mean suggests there is probably quite a spread in the solutions. The GGEM(Canadian) has a storm it looks like that would bring wraparound snow to NE OK, SE KS, SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 12z Euro looks to phase the N stream and S stream system. It probably isn't that far off yesterdays fantasy GFS run but farther south. Actually the models have changed position with the 12z GFS now showing a cutoff over the SW which the Euro was showing yesterday and the 12z Euro now phasing the streams together and making a decent storm out of it like the GFS was doing yesterday. Waiting on wunderground to update but I am fairly certain there will be snow in at least Oklahoma and Arkansas. Edit: It does show snow in the area but not as robust as I thought it would have, surface temps aren't that cold. Edit 2: 12z Euro/Canadian look pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Well we at least have something to watch, which is more than I can say we have had recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Yeah the Euro was a bit disappointing in its snowfall projection. Was expecting a bit more than that based on the upper air charts. I guess temps are a bit warm. But at least it has taken a step more toward the GFS solution from yesterday, which was prolly a bit extreme. As 24/7 says at least maybe we have something to watch this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Im glad no ice though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think they are gonna need a bigger wrecking ball for St. Johns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The latest model runs take us out of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The latest model runs take us out of the snow. It would probably still snow. The temps are just marginal at the low levels. We really need the system to crank up or colder air to be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The latest model runs take us out of the snow. You are looking at the off run models right? The 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 18z didn't look very bad for this area, IMO. Looks decent for moisture just a question on the cold air avail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 00z Euro wants to cut the system off over the SW. It does produce some snow that is along a Wichita to KC line and farther NW. 00z GFS isn't gonna do it, too warm at the surface. May get some snow though, but meh. 00z Canadian may have some wrap around snow showers or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 12z GFS/GGEM is fairly good agreement that this storm will pass to our west. Looks like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Seriously, I'm so over this "winter"! Apparently, the east coast may get a bomb next week, no hope for us...I think I'm done. It's official, I'm throwing in the towel. Onto to tornado season:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Seriously, I'm so over this "winter"! Apparently, the east coast may get a bomb next week, no hope for us...I think I'm done. It's official, I'm throwing in the towel. Onto to tornado season:) I gave up a week or so ago. I wish we could skip to next winter and bypass severe season, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I gave up a week or so ago. I wish we could skip to next winter and bypass severe season, lol That's understandable...if the tornados could just be out in the middle of nowhere, that would cool with me! BTW..the GFS ensembles look nothing like the OP GFS...what the heck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 That's understandable...if the tornados could just be out in the middle of nowhere, that would cool with me! BTW..the GFS ensembles look nothing like the OP GFS...what the heck? Long range or short range? The 12z OP GFS was a cold outlier in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yea, the 12Z OP GFS is the cold outlier. Just an example, but at hr264 12Z GFS Ensemble forecast doesn't have Houston anywhere near freezing at that same time as the 12Z run says the highs in Houston would be 30s and 20s for lows, indicating that the 12Z run is quite an extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 12z Euro says "Next" as it keeps it positive tilted and mostly an open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 18z GFS says no as well. May have to watch for some strong to severe storms though if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Ugh...why do I torture myself with these fantasy storms!!! Terrible!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.