B.Sebo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Glad to be back with my winter family, I feel like a bear except instead of hibernating in the winter, I become super active. I too am ready for the 00z, and I'm very happy to be back in hyper track mode every six hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 00z NAM is back to pouring snow in a pretty narrow band. Oklahoma makes out pretty good except for the SE. I-44 does really well this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I-44 is that just some kind of magnet? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Too good to be true I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Well on to the GFS. Maybe it will come back down to earth. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 +SN Springfield, Joplin, Tulsa http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KSGF.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KJLN.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KTUL.txt Bentonville area goes from rain to snow. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KXNA.txt Ft. Smith stays all rain: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KFSM.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Lol unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=SGF Sorry couldnt resist throwing this out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I-44 is that just some kind of magnet? lol Kind of, the shallow cold airmasses have trouble getting through the higher elevations of the Ozarks. Don't worry, the GFS is running and about to smack the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I think this captures it all on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looks more like the Euro. NAM is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 So which one is better at predicting this storm? The heavy moisture and dumping 12+ inches around I44 or 2-4 inches south of I40?...someone is going to have a busted "winter storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 So which one is better at predicting this storm? The heavy moisture and dumping 12+ inches around I44 or 2-4 inches south of I40?...someone is going to have a busted "winter storm". I'd go with the GFS, the NAM is a terrible model. The GGEM and Euro will run later tonight, if either support the NAM, it would probably be a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Well the NAM could be right about the shallow cold air thing down here. If its to shallow it will be rain until its about to pull out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looking at the loop of H5 heights and vorticity through Tuesday morning, I count four separate shortwaves involved in this whole mess, with a plethora of phasing and interaction issues. Even though the NAM is an outlier for now, I feel like this is a situation in which the best we can do is say there's a range of possible solutions; pinning down one model solution as superior, even if supported by a couple other runs, is probably futile. I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looking at the loop of H5 heights and vorticity through Tuesday morning, I count four separate shortwaves involved in this whole mess, with a plethora of phasing and interaction issues. Even though the NAM is an outlier for now, I feel like this is a situation in which the best we can do is say there's a range of possible solutions; pinning down one model solution as superior, even if supported by a couple other runs, is probably futile. I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. What's the fun in that though? I'd rather look at the 20+" of snow the NAM puts out, get all excited, get my hopes up, then have them crash back down the Earth. Weather is a hell of a drug. It hasn't gotten to the point where I wake up/stop what I'm doing every 6 hours for a new model run...... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 What's the fun in that though? I'd rather look at the 20+" of snow the NAM puts out, get all excited, get my hopes up, then have them crash back down the Earth. Weather is a hell of a drug. Lol JoMo it is a drug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Lol I remember the NAM putting out 20+ inches last year with a storm I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Canadian says the NAM is crazy based on the black and white charts, might have some decent amounts down by OKC like the GFS does though. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Looking at the loop of H5 heights and vorticity through Tuesday morning, I count four separate shortwaves involved in this whole mess, with a plethora of phasing and interaction issues. Even though the NAM is an outlier for now, I feel like this is a situation in which the best we can do is say there's a range of possible solutions; pinning down one model solution as superior, even if supported by a couple other runs, is probably futile. I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. "To hell with your damn logic." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I only wish I had the self control to wait until Sunday morning to begin even looking at this storm, which would probably be the logical course of action. I can relate. I have a close friend who is flying out of XNA on Tuesday morning. Normally a stickler about being where she is supposed to be on time, this is even worse because she really has to be at her destination on Tuesday. When TSA put out the special weather statement this afternoon, I was really hoping she would not read that....but of course she did, plus the forecast and even the discos.....and now she is consulting me to play out all these weather and travel scenarios. Each scenario ends with one of us saying "why don't we wait until Sunday, and then figure this out." By Saturday afternoon I may need to get her a log in here and tell her to ask you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 how come this far out, we don't have a good stance on this storm! Last year, for the blizzard we did!! ( And the NAM was the crazy one in that situation too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 how come this far out, we don't have a good stance on this storm! Last year, for the blizzard we did!! ( And the NAM was the crazy one in that situation too) I think the NAM had support though, right now the NAM doesn't have support for the crazy amounts its showing. As Brett said, there's a lot of interactions and stuff spinning out west and it all depends on how it all reacts and comes together. Euro starts in about 20 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Kinda speechless and clueless at this point(nothing new lol) so I'll just sit back and read.....are any of the crack smokin models in agreement yet or what haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B.Sebo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 how come this far out, we don't have a good stance on this storm! Last year, for the blizzard we did!! ( And the NAM was the crazy one in that situation too) That was an outlier. In our little corner of the country, it is very often a photo finish. For example, the Christmas storm of 2009. The 00z runs on the 23rd showed Fort Smith getting a foot of snow, that was a consensus between the GFS and the evil one (the NAM) and was about 14 hours before the event was set to start. Well by the time we reached 4 pm that day, the precip was ending and we had yet to see a changeover. An hour later we had heavy snow because we ended up on the pivot point. Just a little parable on not putting too much stock into anything this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 When that Euro spits out, post a pic please:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 When that Euro spits out, post a pic please:) The Euro is now freely available on wunderground.com/wundermap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 The Euro is now freely available on wunderground.com/wundermap Except for tonight it would seem? Not updating for me. :-\ This one shows an 850 spin over SE MO at 72 hrs. No precip maps tho http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Except for tonight it would seem? Not updating for me. :-\ This one shows an 850 spin over SE MO at 72 hrs. No precip maps tho http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html Yeah no kidding, nice timing lol. It isn't updating for me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 00Z Euro JLN ON 12Z 05-DEC 1.5 0.6 1022 72 88 0.00 561 543 MON 18Z 05-DEC -1.4 -2.4 1023 81 100 0.28 559 541 TUE 00Z 06-DEC -2.5 -5.9 1024 87 94 0.24 555 536 TUE 06Z 06-DEC -2.9 -7.3 1027 85 78 0.03 553 531 TUE 12Z 06-DEC -5.2 -7.5 1029 84 78 0.02 550 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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