andyhb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 4 completely different runs of the GFS today regarding the system next week, not really taking much credence from any of them... ...or it might be my frustration with this constant stream of cut-offs showing through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 4 completely different runs of the GFS today regarding the system next week, not really taking much credence from any of them... ...or it might be my frustration with this constant stream of cut-offs showing through 4 runs, 4 diff solutions? That's a normal day in GFSland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 4 runs, 4 diff solutions? That's a normal day in GFSland. I was mainly comparing to the much more consistent previous four on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I was looking at the long range charts and its not looking good for wintry precip through the first part of feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Well the models have changed their tune a couple of times, remember that huge warm up over most of the country they were showing a few days ago? That's pretty much gone. Now instead of a big storm system over the central US, there's a small storm system with barely any precip. Anything past day 5 is subject to very large swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well the models have changed their tune a couple of times, remember that huge warm up over most of the country they were showing a few days ago? That's pretty much gone. Now instead of a big storm system over the central US, there's a small storm system with barely any precip. Anything past day 5 is subject to very large swings. So much for the pattern change/interesting weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Doug's new blog: http://www.koamtv.com/story/16549699/sunday-evening-january-8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Doug's new blog: http://www.koamtv.co...ing-january-8th Yea I just read it to. I always enjoy reading what you and he posts! We are running out of time, anyone wanna predict and guess what they think our total snowfall is gonna be this season lol? Maybe just maybe will feb. bring us some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 After looking at the long range charts this will be one of the least snowiest winters on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So much for the pattern change/interesting weather Actually going back on this a bit, the Euro has a significant storm in this period, which was only a cut-off a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 After looking at the long range charts this will be one of the least snowiest winters on record. I dunno, we'll see. Sometimes we get big storms into mid-march that wrap up so we still have until then. It's always weird waking up to 6" of snow, then having the temp get up to 55 that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I still have hope guys, lol. Like I have said all winter long I think one or two have to come together. Ok so now I am thinking 1 has to come together. I hope we get something. If this goes down as the least snowiest winter I am going to be pissed. But lets look at the positive. We know any winter can't really get worse than this one. Come on snow. We have about 2 more months. Realistically we have about a month and a half. We will get into the arctic plunges that are possible again in late February and early March. If we make it to March 10th, we are done, stick a fork in it. At this point in time I just want one storm that we can watch for a few days and have fun with and get something decent out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 No worries the 384 hour 00z GFS is setting us up for something interesting...lol.... It's breaking down the pesky Alaskan vortex by the end of the month as well. Maybe this time it'll be gone for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 The 12z models long range is looking interesting again, but it's the same song and dance that the models have been showing for months now. The Alaskan vortex that has been coming and going, goes away again. High latitude ridging develops, drops cold air into the west with a -PNA and who knows what happens from there. If that sets up slightly farther east, it could be a good Feb, that is, if it actually happens and isn't transient with the AK vortex returning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That's kind of a flip on the 00z GFS with the handling of a storm system in the medium range. Such large run to run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still not looking good for us winter lovers, I've started planning my garden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z GFS really showing some colder signs now in the longer range past h168. I know its done this before but this could be the change we're looking for with Feb coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12z GFS really showing some colder signs now in the longer range past h168. I know its done this before but this could be the change we're looking for with Feb coming up soon. I don't even know anymore. This winter has been terrible for winter lovers. Every time it looks like things may be turning around, the models change their tune. Outside of 3-5 days, they have been flip-flopping like crazy. Even the Euro which is often slow and steady when it comes to changes has been moving things around a lot from run to run. I know if the pattern continues like it does, our severe season is going to be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Feb looks cold but dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 man its drizzly, foggy and misty bad here. Temp is falling now also down to 34.8 supposed to be 19 up here tonight. Might have to contend with freezing fog or drizzle if this keeps up? Nvm just noticed springfield is mentioning it now but for the eastern areas, nope doing it here also lol 32.6 now steady very light rain! craziness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Sweet 18z GFS fantasy storm, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm concerned with ice with the next couple systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm concerned with ice with the next couple systems. I totally agree. I was talking to our local NW Ark Fox/NBC met this past week and we looked at a lot of historical data where the pattern was thesame as we're in now. Super warm crashed into shallow cold and brought ice storms. I didn't take good enough notes to show examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Advisory here tonight for freezing drizzle, I had a feeling this would happen. Roads are a mess! 27 degrees almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 yeah all the winter weather advisories have been canceled it looks like. The models will change a lot but right now it doesn't look like much going on as far as wintry stuff in the short term. 00z GFS Fantasy storm (wish it was colder): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 You know its slow when we are posting maps of +300 and +336 hours. I guess we are reduced to meteorolgical Hail Mary's at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 You know its slow when we are posting maps of +300 and +336 hours. I guess we are reduced to meteorolgical Hail Mary's at this point. It's not even a good fantasy storm as temps are marginal, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 did wind up with a small glaze of ice last night on the roads and elevated surfaces....flurrying here today off and on also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Its going to start looking more and more like spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 6" of precip on the 12z GFS, none of it snow. This winter officially sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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