wildweatherman179 Posted September 2, 2014 Share Posted September 2, 2014 For whatever it's worth, the northwest territories and central Canada appear to be readying for the first significant snows of the fall. Good signs for snow cover this year. The earlier the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Significant cool down coming around 240 hours. Should make for some nice autumn weather. Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Yup. Had an EF-1 tornado the other night just southeast of here. That was a pretty wild storm. I can't wait until we get past the second severe season and into cool days with showers, and then eventually winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 I saw that storm on radar and wondered if it ever produced anything. On winter, I'm wondering if we won't see a mirror of last year with bits of 2000-01 sprinkled in. The Niño may not fully establish itself until December the way things are going now. I know models say otherwise but with 2 out of 3 regions cooling again, it's fairly easy to make an argument. With the qbo in strong negative territory, anticipated blocking, and a southeast ridge it would lock the core of the cold over the central plains again correct? The EPAC is still looking spectacular in my opinion as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 Yeah, it apparently produced 3 tornadoes now. 2 of them were EF-1's and an EF-0. They were of the spin-up variety. Subsurface waters are warming again. Still thinking a weak Nino. I'm not sure about the SE ridge. The latest CFS v2 temp map looks a lot like Joe B's map with coldest temps over the SE and warmer over the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Yeah, I saw the CFSv2 map earlier. Still not a fan of that particular model for various reasons. Hadn't seen the subsurface warming though. Thanks for that. Seems like it was a little easier to figure things out last year than it has been this year. Too many questions still unanswered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Beautiful fallish day today. JMA did well for winter last year, and this years forecast has a stronger ridge centered over the Gulf of Alaska. This time it's a little farther east near the Canadian coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 20, 2014 Share Posted September 20, 2014 The mid-Sept ENSO plumes are out. The average of all the models is +0.7 for the DJF period. The average has been hanging around +0.7 to +0.8 since April. The Gulf Of Alaska is still mighty toasty, but the models want to bring some troughing in, which is not uncommon for this time of the year. Going to have to see how that plays out, and if it cools the waters much. Also waiting on the new September JAMSTEC which should be out this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Hey JoMo. Haven't been by the board in awhile. I'm starting to see things that would lead me to believe the core of cold this winter will be more west based and long lasting than last year. Would give us a very favorable storm track through the winter if it verifies. I think much of the east and northeast are going to torch out this winter. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 Hey JoMo. Haven't been by the board in awhile. I'm starting to see things that would lead me to believe the core of cold this winter will be more west based and long lasting than last year. Would give us a very favorable storm track through the winter if it verifies. I think much of the east and northeast are going to torch out this winter. Any thoughts? West based where? The latest CFS v2 (keep in mind it changes daily) has a cold DJF. Mainly due to a cold Dec, warm Jan, cold Feb in our neck of the woods. Precip is below normal on this latest run. I think what's more important is what the storminess that is predicted to impact the Gulf of Alaska does to the SST configuration up there. The Euro Weeklies have it very stormy up there but it appears to be progressive in nature until possibly the end of the run around Oct 22nd or so, but that's a long way out. Still waiting on the JAMSTEC. I think it'll be out by Thursday. In other news. We should see a strong cold front around the first week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 West based where? The latest CFS v2 (keep in mind it changes daily) has a cold DJF. Mainly due to a cold Dec, warm Jan, cold Feb in our neck of the woods. Precip is below normal on this latest run. I think what's more important is what the storminess that is predicted to impact the Gulf of Alaska does to the SST configuration up there. The Euro Weeklies have it very stormy up there but it appears to be progressive in nature until possibly the end of the run around Oct 22nd or so, but that's a long way out. Still waiting on the JAMSTEC. I think it'll be out by Thursday. In other news. We should see a strong cold front around the first week of October. That's my basic way of saying I don't buy that exact model configuration shown there. I think we see a strong chance of a pattern much like last year's only centered further west and less progressive with the cold shifting east in a hurry. This would leave Florida warm and parts of the east coast a little warm. Much of the west coast would be warmer than normal as well. I have pretty much believed this since very early on. The warmth in the NPAC is interesting also as you said. I don't see it going away but possibly shifting west through the next few weeks. This would support my thoughts also as it shifts the associated ridge to the west with it. Just some thoughts but things look really good right now in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 That's my basic way of saying I don't buy that exact model configuration shown there. I think we see a strong chance of a pattern much like last year's only centered further west and less progressive with the cold shifting east in a hurry. This would leave Florida warm and parts of the east coast a little warm. Much of the west coast would be warmer than normal as well. I have pretty much believed this since very early on. The warmth in the NPAC is interesting also as you said. I don't see it going away but possibly shifting west through the next few weeks. This would support my thoughts also as it shifts the associated ridge to the west with it. Just some thoughts but things look really good right now in my opinion. I think it's going to depend a lot on where the trough in the Pacific sets up. It has been all over the Pacific ocean in the CFS v2 runs. The last 14 runs for December have gradually pushed it back farther west into the Pacific. I'm not sure where it will form but this map would indicate a colder than normal eastern 1/2 of the US. Of course it could change again at anytime.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 And the DJF average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 And the DJF average. This centers high pressure over the Rockies in DJF correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 This centers high pressure over the Rockies in DJF correct? Yeah basically. West Central Canada down into the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I'd say it verifies my thoughts exactly then. Look forward to seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 I finally found the JMA website. It did an amazing amazing job with winter last year. Probably the best model. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ It has the area of lower heights centered farther out into the Pacific like the CFS v2. But has the higher heights on the AK/CAN coast. Cold look for the eastern 1/2 of the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Looks too far east to me as well. If that verifies, it's an ice storm followed by a winter cancel for me. Lol. Very cool site. Bookmarked it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 JAMSTEC is out: Temps: Precip: Sea Surface Temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 JAMSTEC is out: Temps: Precip: Sea Surface Temps: I really like the looks of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Yeah the SST didn't change much from last month's run. As far as the positioning. The El Nino cooled off a bit in this month's run. The Baja area warmed more and the NE Pacific area warmed more when compared to last month's run. The air temps warmed a bit though and shifted farther north. And the precip took a NW shift closer to us. I'm pretty happy with that overall. But it'll probably be different next month, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 ^^^Interesting, that temperature forecast for DJF doesn't resemble a Nino. The precip does look like a Nino signal, but normally in a Nino, it's warmer across the northern tier of the U.S. and Canada and cooler over the southern half of the U.S. Also appears, the cooler temp anomalies shifted west and now brings the NE into warmer temps and the SE average temps. Like I said, I'm taking this with a grain of salt. You can already see a Nino-ish pattern taking hold with that monster storm off the West Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I think if we are going to see the best effects of a weak El Nino we need to see a .5 in the next tri-monthly (ASO). Not sure if this is going to happen seeing as it is at 0 from what I saw. My worry is, that if we get a nino at all, it will be too little too late. Anxious to see what happens to the NPAC after the storminess moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted September 25, 2014 Share Posted September 25, 2014 I think if we are going to see the best effects of a weak El Nino we need to see a .5 in the next tri-monthly (ASO). Not sure if this is going to happen seeing as it is at 0 from what I saw. My worry is, that if we get a nino at all, it will be too little too late. Anxious to see what happens to the NPAC after the storminess moves through. Actually, the atmosphere is already ahead of the game when it comes to this Nino temperature wise. All we're waiting on is the ocean (particularly Nino 3.4) to coincide with the atmosphere and we're in business as far as the Nino goes. 2009-2010 Nino is a great example of the atmosphere preceding the ocean in warming with the Nino. Usually, there is a lag, but not the case with 09-10 and with this oncoming Nino. Don't give up hope. Look at how warm the whole Pacific basin is...another good sign that we will likely see a Nino of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 26, 2014 Share Posted September 26, 2014 Interesting... Latest Euro ensemble really wants to park high heights over the NE Pacific again as we head past the first week of October. There is also a strong signal for a possible Aleutian Low developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 27, 2014 Share Posted September 27, 2014 I guess I'm just trying to hold my hopes down to keep my head in check on things. Inside I'm giggling like a little kid watching it snow. This could be a great winter for us if it all works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 May have to watch for severe weather on Wed/Thurs'ish. Looking ahead at the 00z Euro ensembles. It's still building the ridge over Alaska and the NE Pacific. This should result in colder temps for central and western Canada and maybe the northern Plains in the extended range into October. I think I get the weeklies later this afternoon and that should extend to the end of October. I'm curious about the warm water off the CA coast and Baja, and the effects that will have on any storm systems? Anyone know if it has any effect on system strength or moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 May have to watch for severe weather on Wed/Thurs'ish. Looking ahead at the 00z Euro ensembles. It's still building the ridge over Alaska and the NE Pacific. This should result in colder temps for central and western Canada and maybe the northern Plains in the extended range into October. I think I get the weeklies later this afternoon and that should extend to the end of October. I'm curious about the warm water off the CA coast and Baja, and the effects that will have on any storm systems? Anyone know if it has any effect on system strength or moisture? My immediate thoughts would be to increase moisture over southern California as well as increased heights over the area. I believe this is partially reflected in the JAMSTEC forecasts you posted above. I haven't found a year when it was that warm there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I'm just excited to start seeing more posts about the winter. As I've stated many times before, I have nothing valuable to add to the discussion but thanks to those who do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted September 29, 2014 Share Posted September 29, 2014 I'm just excited to start seeing more posts about the winter. As I've stated many times before, I have nothing valuable to add to the discussion but thanks to those who do. Welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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