The Waterboy Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Summer is 'boring' weather wise around here. Especially once we get to mid-July through late August. 90's/70's and sunny and humid every day. As for winter... I've been checking in with the CFS v2 from time to time. Definitely an El-Nino look to the 500 MB progs come December. Refresh my memory please, but is a medium/strong El Niño good for us or is it the kiss of death? If I remember correctly our best winters are in ENSO neutral years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Refresh my memory please, but is a medium/strong El Niño good for us or is it the kiss of death? If I remember correctly our best winters are in ENSO neutral years. Strong is too warm. I think we do ok to well in Moderate. I remember 2002-2003 being a moderate El-Nino and it was really really snowy up here, not sure about down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Lol. You hate it because of the severe? We hate it because of the lack of severe! If we really knew, we would feel different I'm sure. That said, New England will welcome anyone that wants to talk winter in the second week of June. That's how we roll. No, I like severe weather but I like forecasting seasons and summer just bores me. Winter is more challenging. I should live up north because I start thinking about winter in June. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Thanks for the post JoMo! I thought I was the only one still lurking around these winter threads. Lol. Never too early to start thinking about 2014-15 you know. I think we might be in for another good winter this year. Probably going to be hard to beat last year in both cold and snow categories for awhile but I think we (especially further south) have a decent shot at a top 10 winter for snow this year. I believe a moderate Niño is a safe bet, and the N. Pacific warm pool is still alive and kicking for now. Could we have a cold wave in a wet Niño year? My top winter analog for this year (2014-15) is 1911-12 which I just saw happens to be on your list of Niño winters above. It will be fun to watch but I'm already convinced it will be a great year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I don't know, it's still kinda early. JAMSTEC for June is out. Still has the warmth in the Pacific like you said and a Modoki El-Nino look. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I don't know, it's still kinda early. JAMSTEC for June is out. Still has the warmth in the Pacific like you said and a Modoki El-Nino look. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Yeah, still very early. I'm a winter nut so I take a mandatory 3 months off from March to June and start studying for the next winter. I'm also happy to see the warm water just off the coast of Mexico in your linked image. Arctic ice may actually be better than 2013 at this point and through the rest of the melt season. There are just too many good looking things right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Yeah the warm sub-surface water is surfacing now, with cooler water now below it. El Nino may peak at moderate levels late this fall into this winter. All the warm water may get pushed west, which may form a Modoki El Nino... And that is explained here: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 I've heard about 27 different explanations as to which is better and why, so I'll ask again. Which is better a west-based or an East-based El Niño? I don't entirely disagree with you on where it will end up when all is said and done but I just don't see how it could become west based unless the warm pool is that shallow. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 I've heard about 27 different explanations as to which is better and why, so I'll ask again. Which is better a west-based or an East-based El Niño? I don't entirely disagree with you on where it will end up when all is said and done but I just don't see how it could become west based unless the warm pool is that shallow. Correct? Warmer waters get pushed west by the winds. West-based El Nino's are better from the looks of the composites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Well, any new thoughts about winter JoMo? Any new models released lately? You're kinda the go to guy on that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 It's like a fall day out there today...... I can smell wood smoke as well. I can't believe it's July 17th. It's usually so hot and humid. As far as next winter goes. I'm not sure. It looks like a strong El-Nino is out of the picture, maybe even a moderate is too high but it's still possible. It's looking like a weak El-Nino or maybe even neutral conditions may happen. The next JAMSTEC seasonal model run should be very soon. I don't trust the CFS v2. The mid-July ENSO plume average is below the 1 degree C anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 It's like a fall day out there today...... I can smell wood smoke as well. I can't believe it's July 17th. It's usually so hot and humid. As far as next winter goes. I'm not sure. It looks like a strong El-Nino is out of the picture, maybe even a moderate is too high but it's still possible. It's looking like a weak El-Nino or maybe even neutral conditions may happen. The next JAMSTEC seasonal model run should be very soon. I don't trust the CFS v2. The mid-July ENSO plume average is below the 1 degree C anomaly. Yeah. What I figured I guess. Wasn't really banking on El Niño being really significant anyway this year. Definitely felt and looked like fall all week. Will probably never again see in my life 5 straight days at or below 77 degrees in the summer. I think there was even a heating degree day in there somewhere. Lol. Winter 2014-15 is still looking pretty strong in my opinion. There are a lot of factors that are hard to forecast and I'm pretty convinced at this point that the CPC has no clue anymore ever. I haven't known them to put out a reliable 4 month lead forecast in over 6 years. Heck, the almanacs have a better chance of getting it right anymore than they do. Lol. I'm getting ready to start working pretty hard on getting my own forecast written here over the next 20-30 days and I'll post it when it's finished. It will be the earliest I have ever had one done since I started doing them a few years ago. Anyway, let's sweat the next 4 weeks out and it should be all downhill from there. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 What makes this winter look even colder is, not only the warm anomalies in the NE Pacific, but also some warm anomalies near Greenland. One thing lacking last year was a significant Greenland block. If we get a -NAO and -EPO set up, this winter looks very cold east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 What makes this winter look even colder is, not only the warm anomalies in the NE Pacific, but also some warm anomalies near Greenland. One thing lacking last year was a significant Greenland block. If we get a -NAO and -EPO set up, this winter looks very cold east of the Rockies. Great observation as well. Definitely hope it lasts. It will be like a big funnel for cold air to be squeezed down into. With slower jet stream movement could see our first winter with long durations of cold in a long time. It would be a lie to say that I'm not excited just a little bit. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Also of some note, the monsoon is back this year out west. Something that is good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 July JAMSTEC is out. Cold eastern half of the nation for winter. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Thank you. I'll take colder and wetter than normal. :-) Hard to believe with all the snow and ice last winter that my area had its 8th driest such period since records had been kept. Will be awesome if we see more moisture this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 July JAMSTEC is out. Cold eastern half of the nation for winter. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en But drier than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 They must be assuming the gulf goes colder than normal again this year. That would be the only reason I could see it being dry. I don't know if I'm sold on that model yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 The other thing that I believe argues against it being dry is the incredible warmth off the coast of California. In an amplified pattern, with the temperature gradient, wouldn't that mean more intense storms this winter? I see that the Gulf does go below normal again but not by much this winter so not really a factor in moisture return in my opinion. I've been reading in the other areas on this site and the east coast thinks they will be cashing in this winter. Something tells me that we will be, probably more so compared to normals than the northeast or it would look that way to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The JAMSTEC has had the eastern half or so of the US cold since it started forecasting the Dec-Feb time frame in April. It has also had it pretty dry as well. The CFS v2 has been wet, also "hot" for the same time, until it's most recent run when it started getting colder. And, just because it's dry, doesn't mean there is less snow, there could be more snow produced and less rain if it keeps up with the colder forecast. JB has SE OK into central Arkansas (and into Tennessee) getting 167% of normal snowfall this winter. 133% of normal snowfall extends all the way up to around Kansas City back to Wichita, back to the Texas Panhandle and south to central Texas and northern Louisiana. Temps are in the 2 degrees below average in our neck of the woods with 4 degree below average temps across much of Arkansas minus the NW corner (which is 2 degrees below) and points east. I guess the Euro Seasonal from earlier this month looked cold for us and very 'wild', it also had the colder air farther west over the central Plains. It had a ridge over Alaska and a weak SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I agree. Not much moisture needed for snow obviously. I'll take 133 percent of normal snowfall. While that's not really extreme in any sense, it is definitely promising. I hadn't really looked at any forecasts yet other than just the basic assumptions people make simply because it may be an El Niño year. Not even sure if it will make much impact until late winter as slow as it is forming. The wild card to me will be the warmth off the California coast and what effects it has. Any opinions or thoughts about that or do you agree with my thinking in the above post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The JAMSTEC has had the eastern half or so of the US cold since it started forecasting the Dec-Feb time frame in April. It has also had it pretty dry as well. The CFS v2 has been wet, also "hot" for the same time, until it's most recent run when it started getting colder. And, just because it's dry, doesn't mean there is less snow, there could be more snow produced and less rain if it keeps up with the colder forecast. JB has SE OK into central Arkansas (and into Tennessee) getting 167% of normal snowfall this winter. 133% of normal snowfall extends all the way up to around Kansas City back to Wichita, back to the Texas Panhandle and south to central Texas and northern Louisiana. Temps are in the 2 degrees below average in our neck of the woods with 4 degree below average temps across much of Arkansas minus the NW corner (which is 2 degrees below) and points east. I guess the Euro Seasonal from earlier this month looked cold for us and very 'wild', it also had the colder air farther west over the central Plains. It had a ridge over Alaska and a weak SE ridge. JB already put out a winter forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 JB already put out a winter forecast? lol not really a 'winter forecast' but what he and Joe D'Aleo are thinking based on the analogs they are using. He released it back in April. It will be updated and they will have an 'official' winter forecast closer to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I agree. Not much moisture needed for snow obviously. I'll take 133 percent of normal snowfall. While that's not really extreme in any sense, it is definitely promising. I hadn't really looked at any forecasts yet other than just the basic assumptions people make simply because it may be an El Niño year. Not even sure if it will make much impact until late winter as slow as it is forming. The wild card to me will be the warmth off the California coast and what effects it has. Any opinions or thoughts about that or do you agree with my thinking in the above post? Some snowfall is better than no snowfall. Last year, JB and Joe D stuck pretty close to what the JMA was showing and it ended up being right so their forecast was pretty much on the money. They primarily used the JMA and the Euro, although JB corrected for the slowness on the Euro when it came to southwest systems. Although JB did have a few incorrect calls when it came to individual storms, they both did a great job. I think having Joe D there helps rein in JB. I know Joe D likes 1917/1918 after looking at the JAMSTEC today, it also follows the 1916-1917 analog they used for last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Was 1917-18 similar 1911-12? I know some of the coldest winters were around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Lol. I will answer my own question on that one. 1917-1918 is the second coldest winter in NE Oklahoma history and probably in many parts of the midwest and Ohio Valley. My original analog of 1911-12 finished as the 4th coldest such period on record for this area. (Tulsa NWS) The winters of 1977-78 and 1978-79 were at #3 and #1 respectively in terms of cold. All have made lists as possible analogs for this year. I think it would take more than -2 degree average to qualify for those high ranks. lol. Awesome to see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 Here is a video from the storm that hit today. I think it's very likely we got hit by a brief tornado here in Ft. Smith. There is a lot of damage all over town, but Fort Chaffee really got slammed. To me, this video below looks like a tornado. http://5newsonline.com/2014/07/23/video-windstorm-destroys-buildings-at-chaffee-crossing/ http://5newsonline.com/2014/07/23/severe-thunderstorm-warnings-issued-for-arkansas-and-oklahoma-counties/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 I'm not sure where to put this...but Phoenix had a high/low today of 114/94...and the dewpoint was in the 50s all day. Not a fun day to be outside there. The UHI effect is incredible in Phoenix. The low of 94 is one of the warmest lows ever recorded, even as the current air mass over the Southwest US isn't too out of the ordinary for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted July 24, 2014 Share Posted July 24, 2014 I'm not sure where to put this...but Phoenix had a high/low today of 114/94...and the dewpoint was in the 50s all day. Not a fun day to be outside there. The UHI effect is incredible in Phoenix. The low of 94 is one of the warmest lows ever recorded, even as the current air mass over the Southwest US isn't too out of the ordinary for July. I saw an 87 degree low for Tulsa once back in 2011 which was definitely a UHI effect. 94 is ridiculous for 50 dewpoints but I could see it happening with the massive heat dome they're under right now. Will probably stay that way out there for the rest of summer. Better them than us I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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