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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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All hell breaking loose this evening across C OK as drizzle falls into surface temps around 15-20 F. Reports of an ungodly number of accidents, including injuries and at least one fatality so far. After we cover up the thin ice rink with IP/SN tomorrow, I can see the roads being positively undriveable until Monday afternoon at the earliest.

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Lightning east of Monett. Thundershowers (sleet or freezing rain) developing down in southern MO in the 23 degree air. 

 

The bad thing about the HRRR running every hour is that once it finishes up, there's another hour of data to look at, so you can never get any rest, heh.

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All hell breaking loose this evening across C OK as drizzle falls into surface temps around 15-20 F. Reports of an ungodly number of accidents, including injuries and at least one fatality so far. After we cover up the thin ice rink with IP/SN tomorrow, I can see the roads being positively undriveable until Monday afternoon at the earliest.

 

It was amusing listening to Norman Fire on the scanner. All was quiet until about 11 PM and all hell broke loose at once on I-35 between Main and Robinson. I went over there and was amazed at the ice accumulation. It looked like they had quite a burst of freezing rain. The southeast side of town on the other hand is fairly dry in comparison. 

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It has been snowing lightly here on the north side of OKC for several hours. Temperature is 13 F. The snow may have been a savior because earlier this morning the freezing rain/drizzle falling with temps in the teens was causing absolute chaos on the roads. There were numerous reports of accidents and, unlike the typical fender benders, many of these had injuries (and sadly, I think there have been at least two fatalities). Oddly enough, all of this mess has occurred with the radar barely hinting at anything falling. I can't even imagine what it will be like if we get into enough precip for it to actually appear on radar returns.

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12z NAM still looks good for more precip and snow tonight.

 

SPC MCD:

 

mcd0159.gif

 

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN OK...N-CNTRL TX...NRN
AR...SRN MO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 021327Z - 021930Z

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTER MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU THIS MORNING...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS SAMPLE A PLUME OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY
ROOTED ATOP THE STRONG INVERSION OVERLYING AN ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT
IS SPREADING SWD ACROSS THE REGION. INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE FRINGES OF STRONGER
ASCENT/MID-HIGH CLOUDS PRECEDING A SRN-STREAM IMPULSE OVER AZ/NM ARE
ENCROACHING ON THIS BUOYANCY. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY INDICATES
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION PRODUCING SLEET FROM SWRN OK
TO THE OZARKS. AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA...THE
INCREASE IN ASCENT WILL ENCOURAGE THE GROWTH OF ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING...WHILE PRECIPITATION FALLOUT FROM
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS STIMULATES PRECIPITATION FROM THE LOWER
STRATUS DECK /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/.

DESPITE ELEVATED WARM NOSE TEMPERATURES OF 6-12C AROUND H85
SUPPORTING COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS PER THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SHALLOW PBL -- I.E. AOB
-10C WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SLEET WITH THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FOR
AREAS FROM NRN AR TO SERN/S-CNTRL OK AND ADJACENT N-CNTRL TX WHERE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL BE A LITTLE
WARMER -- THOUGH STILL BELOW 0C -- FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIKELY.
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RATES OF 0.05-0.15 INCH PER HOUR
WILL BE LIKELY. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES
AROUND 0.25 INCH PER HOUR...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO
SERN/S-CNTRL OK AND ADJACENT N-CNTRL TX INVOF A PLUME OF 0.75-1-INCH
PW PER GPS DATA.

THE OVERALL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LOCALLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATE
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Gotta love waking up to lightning and sleet! Impressive cloud to ground lightning here in Adair County, OK. Not a headline you hear every day. 17 degrees with thunderstorms. Haha. Saw the heaviest 5 minutes of sleet I've ever seen as well. It was crazy.

Yep first time for me for thunder sleet and lightning, its actually pretty cool and insane all at once. I haven't been impressed at all with this storm so far but the thunderstorms from it with the sleet is cool. Had a few overnight bouts here and there of sleet but no freezing rain as of yet thank goodness!

 

Probly an off and on thing all day, tulsa sounds like they are just completely lost lol. I can imagine this has got to be a nightmare to forecast though. Now the forecast says sleet over to snow this morning haha 1-3", definately not warning criteria in my books but eh the thundersleet is cool

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Crazy sounding!

 

OUN.gif

 

Even crazier is that it is snowing during that sounding. :P The roads were awful last night as the freezing drizzle was (IMO) much heavier than I'd anticipated and earlier on. Now we are getting snow generated in the boundary layer with sleeting thunderstorms riding aloft the cold air all at 13F. This is pretty wild. 

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Thunder sleet looks to be inbound to the OKC metro and should be starting as I type on the south side of town. Also, the radar is blossoming to our southwest all the way to the Red River so once this heavier stuff starts up, it might be with us for a while. This whole mass of... well, whatever it is... looks to roll right on up I44 so Tulsa and Joplin, look alive. You might be next. :)

EDIT: I haven't heard any thunder yet, but the precip rates have picked up substantially. We went from light snow to moderate sleet-snow mix in seconds! Loving it!!!!

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Thunder sleet looks to be inbound to the OKC metro and should be starting as I type on the south side of town. Also, the radar is blossoming to our southwest all the way to the Red River so once this heavier stuff starts up, it might be with us for a while. This whole mass of... well, whatever it is... looks to roll right on up I44 so Tulsa and Joplin, look alive. You might be next. :)

EDIT: I haven't heard any thunder yet, but the precip rates have picked up substantially. We went from light snow to moderate sleet-snow mix in seconds! Loving it!!!!

 

Lots of rumbling here in central OKC and even seeing some lightning flashes. This is awesome! 

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mcd0160.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0160
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX TO SWRN-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 021728Z - 022230Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SLEET/SNOW SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST
TX TOWARD 18Z INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD
INTO SWRN OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THIS WINTER WEATHER HAZARD IS GENERALLY 35 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 35 SE CVS TO 35 WNW OKC. ADDITIONAL ONGOING ELEVATED
TSTMS OVER SWRN OK SHOULD REACH CENTRAL OK /NEAR OKC METRO/ BETWEEN
19-20Z SUPPORTING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES OF SNOW AND SLEET.

DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS SPREAD SWD ACROSS THE TX HIGH
PLAINS AND MUCH OF OK WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. PRONOUNCED MID
LEVEL COOLING EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK OF THE ERN NM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STEEPENING OF 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WITH NWD
AND NEWD EXTENT INTO WRN/SRN OK. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND TX PANHANDLE INTO
WRN/CENTRAL OK ATTENDANT TO DPVA WITH THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE HRRR /11-15Z/ SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY
18-19Z...AND SPREADING ENEWD. A LEADING AREA OF ONGOING/SUSTAINED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SWRN OK TO INVOF CDS MAY BE AFFECTED NOW BY
INCREASING UVVS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TRACK ENEWD POTENTIALLY REACHING CENTRAL OK /IN VICINITY AND
JUST WEST OF OKC/ BETWEEN 19-20Z.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2014

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