JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am curious as to that last impulse the NAM is seeing. Does it have any support from other computer models? It's the main system, or well, what's left of it. All the models have it, but the NAM just has it wetter. 12z Euro still looks like it's the driest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z NAM may have been a bit drier. Still an impressive backend event that *should* be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Here's the HRRR for 3 AM. I'm assuming the mess of precip types in SE KS into W-Central MO is sleet, although that might mean heavy sleet or convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dljuly3 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looking at the 15z SREF for OUN, the 12z observational NAM was a significant outlier from all the other runs in the ensemble. The 18z NAM definitely looks more in line with the SREF (not saying I would put my faith in the SREF ensemble, however...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Springfield, MO... 2:30 webbriefing has their latest amounts. Looks like 0.11" of freezing rain for Joplin and 3.3" of sleet and snow combined. (they must be tossing the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wouldn't mind seeing a little snow, might give us some traction on the .5 to 1 inch of sleet we're supposed to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I still like the idea of an impressive area of snow coming thru tomorrow evening, kinda a hybrid of the GFS and NAM output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 18z GFS looks pretty impressive now. If that is 10:1 snow anyway. Update to the existing warnings came out here so will have to read them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Those are probably thunderstorms behind the freezing line. A bit farther south this run of the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I guess its wait and see what happens, I for one just dont have that feeling for this storm. Looks decent for southern missouri maybe but just not getting it for here. Wouldnt mind being in kc for this event, they appear to get nailed again. Maybe Im just looking at things wrong like I usually do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I guess its wait and see what happens, I for one just dont have that feeling for this storm. Looks decent for southern missouri maybe but just not getting it for here. Wouldnt mind being in kc for this event, they appear to get nailed again. Maybe Im just looking at things wrong like I usually do You will get freezing rain and sleet probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 You will get freezing rain and sleet probably. Yuck! Doesnt sound to be as bad as what I read earlier though from nws. IDK too much going on today my heads spinning lol. I wish I could be in my hometown of south jersey also man, my mom said they are gonna or are expecting 10-15" from this thing!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 00z NAM still coming in drier tonight. And wetter for tomorrow with the main system. It'll probably end up being wrong, since it's the NAM but total amount of frozen stuff (snow ratios will be high in areas that get snow): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Is that just snowfall total jomo? that model is definately on something haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Is that just snowfall total jomo? that model is definately on something haha Not all snowfall. It's a 10:1 ratio 'snowfall' map, but it's best to just use it as a map where precip has fallen when the temp is below freezing. The higher amounts of 'snow' are where more frozen precip falls. Much of that across Arkansas will be sleet or freezing rain. The stuff back in Northern OK and southern KS is probably more of a snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ahhh ok thnx man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As you can see, the 00z GFS is not nearly as exciting as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 At least we are now close enough to the NAM's wheelhouse that there is a slight chance it is picking up on something real. Of course smart money should definitely stay with the GFS. FWIW, we dropped below freezing a few hours ago in Central OK and temps are now in the 20s with steady freezing drizzle. Nothing was freezing on the roads as of an hour ago (when I went out to pick up a pizza), but I did have to scrape my windshield before leaving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Winds changed direction here to the north now, has begun to drizzle pretty good and temp has fallen to 43 now down from 52 about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest Springfield briefing said they may have to increase snow amounts across southern Missouri for tomorrow. Complex system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Man this stuff may start freezing quicker then they thought, down to almost 39 now. Im sure the ground is still fairly warm though from the nice temps we been having Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest Springfield briefing said they may have to increase snow amounts across southern Missouri for tomorrow. Complex system. I think there will defin be the usual surprises with this tomorrow. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's down to 23 here at my house, decent north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1101 PM CST Sat Mar 1 2014 ...Winter Storm Tonight through Sunday Night... .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2014 A complex winter storm continues to unfold this evening. The cold front had shifted southward into far southern Missouri south of Highway 60. Late evening temperatures ranged from near 20 degrees across central Missouri to near 50 near the Arkansas border. Areas of freezing drizzle had developed from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri and the latest radar trends suggest that light precipitation is beginning to break out farther south. The heavier winter precipitation to this point was located farther north from central Kansas into northern Missouri within the entrance region of the polar jet and axis of 850-700 MB frontogenesis. Precipitation will begin a more notable increase in intensity overnight as synoptic scale ascent begins to strengthen and the deep moisture plume associated with a potent upper level trough moving into the desert southwest advects across the region. 850 MB warm air and moisture advection within the low level jet axis along with isentropic upglide will also aid in the development of precipitation overnight. The activity will likely be showery in nature. Progged most unstable CAPE on the order of 200 J/KG along with strong deep layer sheer will be supportive of elevated thunder. Any convection will enhance precipitation rates and accumulations. Also small hail cannot be ruled out in the deeper convective elements. Expect the heaviest precipitation to develop around and after 3 AM and continue into mid morning Sunday. Evening models continue to indicate a lull in the precipitation across a good portion of the area from later Sunday morning into the afternoon. This seems reasonable as the 850 MB front sags southeastward causing the low level jet to veer. While precipitation may decrease in intensity Sunday it is not expected to end. Evening model runs are also consistent bringing another round of winter precipitation in the form of snow to the area Sunday night as the primary shortwave trough tracks eastward across the Ozarks. A somewhat favorable track of this system along with decent jet dynamics and good local pressure rises on the 295-305K Theta surfaces will provide a period of strong lift. The result could be a period of moderate to heavy snowfall Sunday night across a good portion of southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Given the high snow to liquid ratios several inches of snow cannot be ruled out. Given the complexity of this winter storm stay to the latest weather information and forecast as we continue to analyze the latest model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hmm latest nws hazerdous discussion mentions no snow now at all for here bleh! Just zr and sleet. Just bring on spring allready lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hmm latest nws hazerdous discussion mentions no snow now at all for here bleh! Just zr and sleet. Just bring on spring allready lol Ground temperatures in the teens with freezing rain is almost unheard of. I know I don't ever remember that before. I wouldn't bet on freezing rain being that big of an issue. Maybe sleet but still seems bizarre that Tulsa still only has us for .1 of ice and 1/2 inch of sleet. Yet we're under a WSW. Weird. Bring on the surprises! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 HRRR is still firing T-storms up in the cold air in SE KS into western MO. Also in central KS... primarily after 2 AM or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ground temperatures in the teens with freezing rain is almost unheard of. I know I don't ever remember that before. I wouldn't bet on freezing rain being that big of an issue. Maybe sleet but still seems bizarre that Tulsa still only has us for .1 of ice and 1/2 inch of sleet. Yet we're under a WSW. Weird. Bring on the surprises! Yea I just dont know what to think really, wait and see what happens I guess. Ive never seen freezing rain at those temps either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX WITH THENCHANGE TO SLEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.ONE HALF TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF SLEET IS EXPECTED WITHACCUMULATIONS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER. A TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER SUNDAY. SNOWACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ON TOP OF THE ICEAND SLEET. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR SUNDAYNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 00z Euro shows increased precip amounts. The heavier precip that was located over SE KS into W-Central MO in previous runs is farther south across NE OK into SW MO. That's what happens between midnight and 6 AM or so. From 6 AM to noon, precip blossoms over SW to NE OK (the HRRR is doing this as well) From noon to 6 PM, precip continues... The heaviest (0.4+") over the SE 1/2 of OK into Arkansas. The 0.1" line extends into SE KS which is better than the dryslot previously. From 6 PM to midnight, NE OK, NW AR, SW MO get 0.1-0.25" of what should be snow by that time. From Midnight to 6 AM Monday... Snow continues across S MO and extreme northern AR with probably another 0.1-0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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