JoMo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ron Hearst has sounded the panic button. So has JoMo. Time to get hunkered down. Biggest fly in the ointment is p-type. That's tough to nail down, but has huge implications on the forecast. The 00z GFS is actually pretty 'wet' precip wise, and this is a long way out for a model that is usually dry. Only 1 more hour until the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 looks like a pretty good thump of snow sunday evening on the GFS, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 yeah Doug has this for just snow...... I don't know though. If the 00z Euro goes all in, I'm game, but otherwise the GFS alone worries me for having amounts that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 00z Euro continues to not be as impressive. It pretty much followed along it's 12z run. NW Arkansas is going to get the brunt of this winter storm if the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Tulsa sounds iffy still on precip. types. No watches as of yet for this area but Im sure tomorrow they will be flying out. Sounds like they are concered with colder than expected temps and they also sound like they are leaning towards more of a sleet event here. Who the hell knows, let the games begin lol. I can handle sleet but Im a scaredy cat when it comes to ZR lol. Man my old stomping grounds looks to get nailed again! They have done well up there this season! Friends in kc said they are sick of the snow now and have gotten way too much this winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 tell your friends to send the snow up this way...we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06 gfs is a little farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 06 gfs is a little farther north Yikes. I am hoping that is a hiccup (as the 6z and 18 z model runs have from time to time) rather than a trend. Not only does that take any hope of snow from Central OK, but it comes very close to screwing over my hometown (outside of Philadelphia), too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Watches have gone up from the northeastern third of Oklahoma, eastern half of Kansas, northwest corner of Arkansas and about 98% of Missouri (and points east of there). OUN is going with a special weather statement for the time being for much of the rest of OK, but I would presume that once they can zero in on the exact p-type and exact start time, they will be upgrading to something... whether an advisory, winter storm warning or ice storm warning depending on how soundings look as the storm gets a bit closer. In any case, it definitely looks like some form of an icy end to the weekend for most of us.... and I, for one, can't wait. EDIT: Per the morning AFD from Norman, the models have been trending colder for Central Oklahoma, and, as of now (or then... it was early this morning), they are thinking that sleet will be the predominant p-type rather than freezing rain. I suppose if that trend continues, maybe Central OK does have a chance to get some snow on the back end out of this instead of just ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Watches have gone up from the northeastern third of Oklahoma, eastern half of Kansas, northwest corner of Arkansas and about 98% of Missouri (and points east of there). OUN is going with a special weather statement for the time being for much of the rest of OK, but I would presume that once they can zero in on the exact p-type and exact start time, they will be upgrading to something... whether an advisory, winter storm warning or ice storm warning depending on how soundings look as the storm gets a bit closer. In any case, it definitely looks like some form of an icy end to the weekend for most of us.... and I, for one, can't wait. EDIT: Per the morning AFD from Norman, the models have been trending colder for Central Oklahoma, and, as of now (or then... it was early this morning), they are thinking that sleet will be the predominant p-type rather than freezing rain. I suppose if that trend continues, maybe Central OK does have a chance to get some snow on the back end out of this instead of just ice. Yeah, definitely. One thing I'm noticing is both the NAM and even more so the GFS have consistently had a dry layer in the mid-levels, especially later on on Sunday. My inclination would be freezing drizzle if that were the case, which can almost be worse than freezing rain (remembering the black ice that coated everything a few weeks ago). I suppose we'll see how things shake out, but I'd be surprised to see actual freezing rain assuming those soundings verified. On another note, I have to say that I'm more than a little impressed with our inversion, especially on the NAM. That is a +51 C/km lapse rate we're looking at there. Add in that some elevated CAPE at the top of the inversion and we could have some rockin' freezing thunderdrizzle at 14F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 12z Euro is a bit colder. It is farther south with a band of precip on Saturday night into Sunday. Heavier amounts from SE KS into southern parts of W-Central MO (0.3-0.6). Looks like an I-44 dryslot for Sunday with some lighter precip. NW Arkansas (and points east) still looks like it could receive the brunt of this winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 All the NWP got heavier with QPF today after backing off yesterday. Sig ice looks in the cards for areas JoMo mentions. Could be several inches of snow north of that. Looks like Euro picks up on additional short wave energy northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM has a pretty colorful accumulation map... However, it's the NAM so the usual "90% chance it's wrong" rules apply. System should be fully sampled tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 This afternoon's AFD from Norman is below. Note the bold/underlined section. Apparently Homer Simpson is the duty met today. LOL. That aside, there is a lot of good info there. I am slightly surprised that they didn't extend the watches in this direction, but I get it. Down here, the initial precip we get will be freezing rain and, with temps in the 60s (probably pushing 70 F by now) today, I can't imagine freezing rain would be accumulating in any serious way on paved surfaces. That gives them a bit more time to pin things down before deciding what advisories/warnings to post (if any). 000FXUS64 KOUN 282106AFDOUNAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK306 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014.DISCUSSION...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON WINTRY PRECIP AND VERYCOLD TEMPERATURES LATE SAT-SUN.CURRENTLY... SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON ASTHE H500 SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE OZARKS... TAKEN THISMORNINGS SHOWERS WITH IT. WINDS HAVE REMAINED VARIABLE THROUGH THEAFTERNOON... WITH TEMPS CLIMBING SLOWLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TOLOWER 60S. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER THESFC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO WRN N TX FROM THE PANHANDLES. N/NW WINDSWILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LESSENING THROUGH SUNSET. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30STO LOWER 40S.FOR SATURDAY... THE VISUALLY IMPRESSIVE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLYCHURNING OFF THE CA COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ASHORE AND OVER SOCALTONIGHT. SERIOUSLY... IF YOU HAVE NOT CHECKED OUT WV LATELY... GIVETHAT H500 SHORT WAVE A LOOK...IT KIND OF RESEMBLES A CINNAMONROLL... MMMM...CINNAMON ROLLS. ANYWAY... OFF THE ERN EDGE OF THISWAVE... A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL EJECT QUICKLY ACROSS THEINTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN. AHEAD OF IT... A DECENTSFC HIGH/CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SWRD ACROSS THEPLAINS... WITH A STOUT COLD FRONT EDGING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY01/18Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STARK GRADIENT FOR HIGHS SAT... WITH30S ACROSS NRN OK TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.SHORT/MID RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT... WITHONLY MINOR SUBTLETIES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE SYNOPTIC ANDMESOSCALE. THEREFORE... ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS... WITHA SLIGHT INCREASE ACROSS N CENTRAL OK SUN MORNING. STILL EXPECT BESTPRECIP CHANCES TO EXIST ACROSS SWRN KS INTO WRN MO... WITH SNOW THEPRIMARY PRECIP TYPE... AND THEN SOUTH ACROSS NERN TX INTO THE SRNOZARKS. FOR OKLAHOMA... FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET REMAIN THE PRIMARYPRECIP TYPES LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING... WITH LIGHTSNOW/SLEET DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN OK THROUGH SUN AFTN. WORKING TOPDOWN... BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE FROM CENTRAL OKINTO NRN TX... AROUND 875MB OF 10C OVERNIGHT THRU SUNDAY. WITH LOWSOVERNIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 20S ACROSS THE NRN HALF OFOK...SLEET/FZRA WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE FOR NRN AND CENTRALOK THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING... WITH RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERACROSS FAR SRN OK AND WRN N TX. THROUGH SUNDAY... TEMPS WILLCONTINUE TO FALL AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THEREGION... WITH PROFILES IMPROVING... SLEET/FZRA WILL TRANSITION TOSNOW ACROSS NRN OK... WITH FZRA/FZDZ INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSSSRN OK AND WRN N TX. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE REMAINRELATIVELY LOW GIVEN THE INCREASING DRY NRLY FLOW WITHIN THEBOUNDARY LAYER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SUBLIMATION ASTHE H500 TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.CURRENT EXPECTED IMPACTS... ELEVATED SURFACES MAY SEE ANYWHERE FROMA TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IN MOST LOCATIONS... WITHSOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCATIONS WELL EAST OF THE I-35CORRIDOR. SLICK SPOTS WILL DEVELOP ON ROADWAYS RESULTING INHAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL ON SUNDAY...DRIVE SLOWLY AND GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOURDESTINATION.FOR NEXT WEEK... TEMPS WILL WARM SLOWLY AFTER MONDAY THROUGH THE ENDOF THE WEEK... WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN POSSIBLY WED/THU.JTK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z NAM has a pretty colorful accumulation map... However, it's the NAM so the usual "90% chance it's wrong" rules apply. System should be fully sampled tonight. That actually looks surprisingly good down this way (North side of OKC) with a few inches of snow in my backyard (or at least very close to my backyard) with that arc of heavier snow not too far to my north and west. I am guessing that this map might be counting sleet as accumulated snow, but, regardless, I would love it if that were to verify. Of course, we are talking about the NAM out to 69 hours so I won't be heading to Vegas to place any bets on it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z GFS precip types map: Compared to the map posted yesterday on the last page. The system is farther south, meaning less freezing rain in NW Arkansas and more sleet. Also, the snow/heaviest snow line has shifted farther south. Areas that do get snow will see high ratios since it's going to be really really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 350 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 2014...THE YEAR WINTER WOULD NOT END. MAJOR FOCUS THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WINTER WEATHER. 1045-1050 MB HIGH PRESSURE IN WESTERN CANADA WILL FLOOD PLAINS WITH ARCTIC COLD THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES SOUTH. MEANWHILE...IMPULSE CURRENTLY JUST OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REACH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. UPPER IMPULSE WILL PRODUCE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IN TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS EVENT WILL BE A MET TEXTBOOK SETUP FOR LARGE AREA OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR OUR REGION. COPIOUS COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS WITH WARM AIR AND LIFT OVER THE TOP. BOURGOUIN PRECIP TYPE TOOL..WHICH IS AN EXCELLENT SLEET / FREEZING RAIN DISCRIMINATOR...WAS USED ON MODEL BIAS CORRECTED PROFILES TO ARRIVE AT PTYPE APPROXIMATE AMOUNTS. SPECIFIC AMOUNTS UNDOUBTEDLY WILL CHANGE SOME NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN SCARY COLD AIR BELOW 925 AND WARM AIR ABOVE. OVERALL QPF WILL DETERMINE SEVERITY OF THIS EVENT. SLEET IS HIGHLY PREFERRED TO FREEZING RAIN. CONVERTED EARLIER WATCH TO WARNING STATUS FOR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHEAST OK. ALSO CONVERTED BENTON AND CARROLL COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION HIGHER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WATCH REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER EASTERN OKLAHOMA..AND ARKANSAS COUNTIES. ACTION STARTS SUNDAY EVENING AND ENDS MONDAY EVENING. THE AFTERMATH OF THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL BE A BITTER COLD AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION MONDAY ...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BY MIDWEEK. G Tulsa sounds impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Tulsa sounds impressed. Yeah, I just noticed that they upgraded their watches to warnings in their northernmost counties. I think they are first to do so. Everybody else has, as of this minute, has maintained watches only. I suspect that the warnings will start flying later tonight when the 0z runs start coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 00z NAM isn't as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 And the 00z GFS looks to be holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Meteorological Winter has ended and it was a cold one for most of the nation. Looks like it was -2 to -3 below normal around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z NAM went crazy with the backend of the system. Huge "if" this is right, the snowfall ratios will be huge and this is just 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wow man hope its onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM went further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's close on temps between 750-800 MB, even on the backend. 12z NAM has thundersleet with the earlier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z GFS isn't as excited as the NAM but it does bring through what looks to be like some snowfall on the backend in the frigid air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes could be a quick 2-4 on the backside with those ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ok...I'm interested again!!! Lol so that probably won't happen for Tulsa!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am curious as to that last impulse the NAM is seeing. Does it have any support from other computer models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 What in theee hell is the nam seeing lol? I dont buy into it sorry guys. I guess we will see though, sounds to get really nasty here after midnight or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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