Wx 24/7 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Ssshh... don't say things like that to get Waterboy all excited JoMo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Ssshh... don't say things like that to get Waterboy all excited JoMo! Too late. He already said it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Too late. He already said it!!! It could just as easily be rain, with central and northern Missouri enjoying the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Looking good. Thanks for the models JoMo. This thing isn't sending me emails when there are new messages on here anymore so I don't check it enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Also, would love to see the analog for weak El Nino with warm pacific as well. Hoping for another major volcanic eruption or two to help things out even more. I think that would set up the perfect winter for next year. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Still have a shot at 1-2 winter weather chances over the next 15 days as we will get much colder air, but it does appear like it will be a sharp Arctic front that will set up near us so the positioning of the front will play a huge role on who sees the winter weather. Looking at the Thursday weeklies today, there may be a brief break in the cold after the 6th or so until it comes back on the 10th or so due to a ridge redeveloping over the NE Pacific into Alaska and into the Arctic once again and that looks to stick around until the 20th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Was wondering if anyone found a year where the GOA ridge and associated warm pool lasted through summer. Would like to look at climatology on what happens in that situation when a weak El nino is present but I cannot find it. Sorry for asking for this and thanks for the help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Was wondering if anyone found a year where the GOA ridge and associated warm pool lasted through summer. Would like to look at climatology on what happens in that situation when a weak El nino is present but I cannot find it. Sorry for asking for this and thanks for the help. I haven't heard of any yet. Hopefully when JB and Joe D'aleo start looking towards spring and summer they will provide some analog years where that happened. The 12z Euro is kind of 'meh' for snow chances coming up. Things aren't lining up how they were a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Was wondering if anyone found a year where the GOA ridge and associated warm pool lasted through summer. Would like to look at climatology on what happens in that situation when a weak El nino is present but I cannot find it. Sorry for asking for this and thanks for the help. Joe D'aleo took a look ahead at summer today (June-August). Finding the most similar years to the expected setup this year, he listed: 1953, 2013, 1957, 1993, 1967, 1963, 2002, 1979. The result around this area was near normal on temps, and normal to below normal on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Thanks man. I appreciate that. I see our snow chances have all but disappeared. :-( Not surprised I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 According to most of the years listed above, it looks like for Oklahoma at least, we will see equal chances of above/normal/and below normal temperatures with slightly below normal precipitation during particularly July and August with the most intense heat being centered during those 2 months. Good news there is we could likely see an early fall this year. :-) I know this is a winter forum so I'll quit doing summer stuff til after March starts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 According to most of the years listed above, it looks like for Oklahoma at least, we will see equal chances of above/normal/and below normal temperatures with slightly below normal precipitation during particularly July and August with the most intense heat being centered during those 2 months. Good news there is we could likely see an early fall this year. :-) I know this is a winter forum so I'll quit doing summer stuff til after March starts now. haha, it's fine. There's not a whole lot going on. It's going to get cold again and there looks to be a few chances for some light snow or frozen precip over the next 10 days according to the 00z Euro. At this time, it doesn't look like we'll see any 'big' systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 00z Euro tonight still has a system on Feb 28th. This system might provide a light mix or light snow to parts of the area. Mainly in SW MO it looks like right now. Next Wintry type storm comes out March 2nd into March 3rd. Best chances will be in KS/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I just either want one last gasp of winter's grip or I want warm, sunny weather. I don't care which it is... but I want one or the other. Thanks in advance for making sure it gets done JoMo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Well, this time of year you can get winter and warm sunny weather in the same week. 12z Euro looks like the 12z GFS on the Feb 28th storm. This would be a light to moderate frozen precip event for East Central KS, into West Central MO, possibly reaching down to South Central MO. Looks like it would be too warm in NE OK, far NW AR and far SW MO but it would be close. The second system is farther north and would impact primarily central and northern Missouri with frozen precip on March 2nd. Basically, the second system depends on what happens with the northern stream, mainly an upper low that wants to sit on the British Columbia/Alberta border just north of the US border. It depends on the strength, orientation, and location of this system to determine if we get more of the 12z Euro depiction (moderate event in central and northern MO), or the 12z GFS which was a pretty big ice storm for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 And today's 12z Euro looks to be coming in warmer with the Feb 28th (Friday) system, so most of the frozen weather should remain NE of our area. The better chances for winter weather will come late on March 1st into March 2nd (Sat-Sun) when a system overruns cold Arctic air at the surface. This looks to be a bigger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Missouri may become the Show Me Ice state on Sunday - especially southern Missouri. Overruning is predicted over an arctic air mass. Notable qpf is also forecast in eastern OK and northwest AR, but perhaps fewer hours below freezing. Looks like the brunt of ice may be southern Missouri. Kansas (southeast) should see a lighter version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Sounds like the concern is increasing for a potential significant ice storm somewhere in our area. From NWS Tulsa: EXTENDED MODELS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VERY COLD ARCTICAIRMASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND LINGER WELLINTO NEXT WEEK. SOURCE REGION FOR THIS AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY NEARTHE NORTH POLE...SO NEEDLESS TO SAY...ITS COLD. SATURDAY WILL BE ATRANSITION DAY...WITH LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR NUDGING INTO NE OKDURING THE DAY...WHILE AREAS S OF THE FRONT SHOULD WARM NICELY. WILLSEE A HUGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD...WITH 30S NEAR THE KS BORDER TOAROUND 70 NEAR THE RED RIVER.THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE S SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY...WITH PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DECENT 30-40KT H85JET PROVIDING UPGLIDE ATOP THE COLD AIR. EXPECT TO SEE AN EXPANDINGAREA OF PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THEFRONT...WITH THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND SOMESLEET ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NE OK AND NW AR. PRECIPITATION SHOULDTRANSITION TO MOSTLY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT SNOW LATER SUNDAYINTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.THIS WINTER EVENT IS STILL 3-4 DAYS AWAY AND MANY UNCERTAINTIESPERSIST CONCERNING PRECIP TYPE AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP.JUST BE AWARE THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING ACROSSPARTS OF NE OK/NW AR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.COLD AIR WILL LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNINGMUCH BELOW NORMAL. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RECORD "LOWHIGH" TEMPS BROKEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 26, 2014 Share Posted February 26, 2014 Yep, Sat night into Sunday we will probably see ice and snow. Right now, the heavier amounts are looking like freezing rain in NW Arkansas into southern MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 00z GFS is looking like a big sleet storm for many with freezing rain down around the Arkansas/Missouri border area with snow confined to northern Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This could be a fairly bad ice storm for some of us, who though remains to be seen! Going to keep watching this one, going to be a longgg weekend. Not really looking forward to ice though, cant stand ice storms as I have had way too many bad things happen with them. Is beautiful yea but really dangerous. Good thing is most power and such is underground here for the most part, however the roads here....forget it! And with it being so hilly here if you dont have chains for tires your screwed cause the road departments rarely touch the side roads at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Compounding the ice is it's going to be f'ggn cold.with low around 5 Monday night and 10 Tuesday night at Lake Ozarks. I'm up in the snow (some sleet) zone. For what it is worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NW Arkansas looks like it will get the worst ice. (freezing rain) Big layer of sleet north of that, with snow in northern MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NE Arkansas looks like it will get the worst ice. (freezing rain) Big layer of sleet north of that, with snow in northern MO. NE Arkansas or NW Arkansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Good let it stay NE of here if thats what you meant JoMo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 NE Arkansas or NW Arkansas? Crap, I meant NW Arkansas... but probably both. Winter Storm Watch up for SW MO and SE KS. Tulsa is going to wait on the midnight shift to issue a watch in their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 18z GFS (it'll change) because the system has not been sampled yet.... but this is what it's showing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18Z GFS continues the moistening trend for us here in central OK, and a cursory glance at soundings seems to indicate we'd even end with a bit of snow on the back end. Precipitation amounts are up to 0.3-0.4" in the metro now. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So, everyone ready for a big snow/sleet/freezing rain storm? I think one's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Ron Hearst has sounded the panic button. So has JoMo. Time to get hunkered down. Biggest fly in the ointment is p-type. That's tough to nail down, but has huge implications on the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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