JoMo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Assuming the GFS/Euro are correct, we may be looking at the first severe weather threat around next weekend. Still a long way to go but with the trough in the west and a large ridge in the east with southerly flow.... I'm so not ready for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Tonight's Euro Weeklies continue the cold look towards the end of Feb into Middle March at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 ^Excellent news! Thanks for the update. I hate to see it so quiet on here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 ^Excellent news! Thanks for the update. I hate to see it so quiet on here right now. I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm just trying to be outside as much as possible enjoying this beautiful weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm just trying to be outside as much as possible enjoying this beautiful weather! I am extremely conflicted right now. It is impossible to not enjoy a 60+ F day in February... especially for a lifelong New Jersey resident.... so I am not even going to try and claim I won't be loving this weekend. At the same time, though, I totally bum out when I talk to friends and family back home. As of this morning, Philadelphia (which is the closest official reporting station to my old home in NJ) has already had the 5th snowiest winter on record, and it looks like another 3" to 5" is on tap for tonight/tomorrow, which could boost 2013/14 up to #3 all time. I would so much love to have one more period of wintry weather here before we settle into another awful, seemingly endless summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm just trying to be outside as much as possible enjoying this beautiful weather! That's what April through November is for. Unless you can't get outside due to the oppressive heat in July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I got outside for my first outdoor trek of 2014!!! I am loving this weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Looks like winter's over folks. At least the snow and ice part of it. Just hoping for a lot of beautiful days through late May before the stupid heat gets here. I'm already dreading this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I wouldn't call it "over" yet. We can still get snowstorms into mid to late March. 12z Euro has one for NE Kansas and the northern 1/2 of Missouri next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The 12z Euro Ensemble continues the cold late Feb into early March. Big ridge out west so we will be on the western side of the eastern trough that develops. It's really really cold for late Feb. Towards the end of the 15 day run, a system looks to undercut the ridge into the southwest. That could spell more frozen precip possibilities as we go into early March. (the control run drops a lot of frozen precip on OK/AR primarily) but it'll probably change a lot from now until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 That would fit the "cycle" of major cold and winter wx events in the first week or so of each month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Possible severe weather Wed night into Thursday? Big storm system on the models. The 00z Euro ensemble last night was cold for late Feb into March. The control run was extremely cold. The 12z Euro today looks like the northeast is going to get attacked by another polar vortex within the next 10 days. More exciting weather here looks to occur in the Day 11-15 period as a stronger system looks to head into the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 JoMo do you see the fairly active pattern carrying into the spring? Could make for an interesting chase season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 JoMo do you see the fairly active pattern carrying into the spring? Could make for an interesting chase season... I don't really know. Not a severe weather kind of guy. Brett would be the guy to ask for that kind of stuff. If it ever warms up longer than a week or so and we get out of NW flow, there might be more severe chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't really know. Not a severe weather kind of guy. Brett would be the guy to ask for that kind of stuff. If it ever warms up longer than a week or so and we get out of NW flow, there might be more severe chances. yeah the NW flow can be a deal killer...dry air can kill a chase season... that can change fairly quick though so I'm pretty hopeful at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble becomes consistently colder than normal around Feb 24th... through the end of the run on March 4th. It would appear that based on the widespread below normal temps, that there is high confidence in this happening. The control run is extremely!! cold when compared to normal. Snow and ice chances would be possible across the entire area. High pressure over Alaska and up into the Arctic again with systems crashing under it into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't really know. Not a severe weather kind of guy. Brett would be the guy to ask for that kind of stuff. If it ever warms up longer than a week or so and we get out of NW flow, there might be more severe chances. I'm more of a short-range and mesoscale guy, and all I've really learned from years of chasing is that it's almost pointless trying to predict the season this early. There are a couple caveats to that, though. Also, some of the very top medium-long range forecasters probably have some skill at predicting synoptic-scale patterns in the 1-3 month range. I know both HM (on this board) and a chaser/meteorologist named Jim Bishop (see Stormgasm.com) were all over the crazy late May period last year from several weeks to a month out. Hopefully we'll start hearing their spring thoughts over the next month or so. The biggest caveat to seemingly complete seasonal unpredictability, in my mind, is the presence of long-term drought. We've endured persistent below-average precipitation since 2011 over an area centered on NW TX and W OK, at times extending well outward from there in various directions. During seasons when the southern Plains are suffering from pronounced drought, the Panhandles and adjacent areas of OK/KS/NM/CO tend not to have many good chase opportunities. More research is needed, but it seems evapotranspiration is particularly important to maintaining rich boundary layer moisture ahead of the dryline in that region. For areas farther east along the I-35 corridor, drought conditions are not as problematic; in fact, we've seen multiple outbreaks make national headlines around OKC over the past three years. To summarize, just about anything is possible for the 2014 chase season at this stage. However, I'd lean toward the southwestern quarter or so of Tornado Alley being fairly quiet yet again this year, barring a major pattern change in March that brings a parade of southern stream storm systems (or perhaps a persistent Desert SW cut-off low, ala 2007). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The Monday Euro weeklies show a continued cold long range pattern, shifting back to that western US trough to central Canada configuration with high pressure over Alaska into the Arctic. It might lift far enough north by March 20th to give us warmer temps, but that's the end of the run. Overall, it looks extremely active and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Awesome news JoMo. Hope its close. 18z GFS had some action next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Well, I guess I will eat my hat if we get 2 more snows out of this year. :-) All in all I think a slightly cooler dry summer may be on tap this year except in maybe SE Arkansas and western Oklahoma/Texas. This is strictly opinion at this point. Haven't even made it to summer climatology yet. Still hoping we get a 10 inch March snow before we stick the fork in winter. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 By the way, I am putting the first significant severe weather for our area at April 3rd right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Well, I guess I will eat my hat if we get 2 more snows out of this year. :-) All in all I think a slightly cooler dry summer may be on tap this year except in maybe SE Arkansas and western Oklahoma/Texas. This is strictly opinion at this point. Haven't even made it to summer climatology yet. Still hoping we get a 10 inch March snow before we stick the fork in winter. ;-) You might be right. We'll have to see what happens. I would definitely want one more big snowstorm, with thundersnow before we get into severe season, which I hope is short. JAMSTEC updated today I think.... Has a cool summer. Also has a cool fall, with the SST's showing a weak El-Nino. Notice the SST's in the NE Pacific are still warm. That's what largely lead to all our Arctic air this winter. I'll let JB find a analog that has a weak El-Nino combined with a warm NE Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Thoughts for tomorrow near OKC and south tomorrow evening? No cap at 1z with around 1500 MUCAPE and 250 0-1km SRH. Enough for some minor twisting or hail producing storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 lol, check out the extended 00z GFS tonight for around March 2nd. It's probably wrong but that would be a heck of an ice storm across SE OK and W AR and a snow storm in SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 If we see another major winter weather period in early March I will begin to give more credence to Mr. Heady's pattern/cycle philosophy. That being said... slight risk of severe weather across SE KS/SW MO/far NE OK today. Looks like mainly a hail threat though... probably some elevated junk. Springtime is here... if only for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Total reversal in the long range on todays GFS. Looks much more exciting for winter weather down the road if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Total reversal in the long range on todays GFS. Looks much more exciting for winter weather down the road if it holds. Yeah, that storm system undercutting the ridge and cold air is going to be interesting. That's a whopper of a trough off the west coast with ridging extending into Alaska and the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Yeah, that storm system undercutting the ridge and cold air is going to be interesting. That's a whopper of a trough off the west coast with ridging extending into Alaska and the Arctic. Would like to see that trough stay a bit more west so we're not on the wrong side of it. That could make for a pattern much like we had in December to close us out for the winter. I think we have more exciting times coming here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Would like to see that trough stay a bit more west so we're not on the wrong side of it. That could make for a pattern much like we had in December to close us out for the winter. I think we have more exciting times coming here soon. It's going to depend on how far south the cold air presses. I'm sure we'll be on the border of snow/ice/rain like usual, lol Any systems are in la-la model land right now. This is the first time this winter I've seen such a strong trough off the west coast. It looks good with ridging over the Arctic, this is going to force the cold Arctic air south, but how far south is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble is still very very cold in the extended. I think we'll be looking at a system around Feb 28th and then another one at some point during the first week of March. Looks like 20" of 'snow' in Eureka Springs, AR during the next 15 days on the control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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