wildweatherman179 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Hate to be negative but I think I'm finally tired of being cold. Just too hard to work in it every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 06Z GFS has moderate snow over the Tulsa area on Tuesday ending up with about 4 to 5 inches over the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It looks like today's "event" might actually be semi-decent for some in Southern OK and Central/Southern Ark. By "semi-decent", I mean they might get an inch or two of fluffy, high-ratio snow, which is enough to make the scenery look pretty and given the recent cold could well be more than enough to make roads pretty awful, too. Unfortunately, at least based on eyeballing radars, it does not look like the I-44 corridor will even get in on the whole "it's cool to look out the window see a few snowflakes flying" thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Hate to be negative but I think I'm finally tired of being cold. Just too hard to work in it every day. It's going to warm up shortly for a few weeks, with perhaps colder air coming back in late Feb to early to mid-march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 It's going to warm up shortly for a few weeks, with perhaps colder air coming back in late Feb to early to mid-march. Are the latest weeklies still showing a colder end of month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Are the latest weeklies still showing a colder end of month? Yep, yesterday's does but sometimes it changes patterns too quickly so you kind of have to build in a few days or a week before the actual change happens. I'm still worried that it won't happen and the storminess is going to want to stay locked into the GOA but both the CFS v2 and Euro weeklies say it doesn't. The 12z Euro operational had some decent storms in the Day 6-10 range but they look to impact northern KS, NE, S IA, and the northern 1/2 of Missouri while we may be just warm enough to see rain. 12z Euro ensembles are running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What's the latest thoughts on Monday thru Wednesday? The NAM/GFS both still have it but not as impressive. And the 12z Canadian lost it today but had it last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 What's the latest thoughts on Monday thru Wednesday? The NAM/GFS both still have it but not as impressive. And the 12z Canadian lost it today but had it last night. 12z Euro says Monday night will be the best shot at some light snow across your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 NWS Tulsa seems to be growing more confident about decent snow Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I was wondering the same thing. What's EURO saying in terms of accumulation potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I was wondering the same thing. What's EURO saying in terms of accumulation potential? 1-2" of snow @ 10:1 across our area..... A bit more across central Arkansas and a bit more across SW into S-Central KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 However, it does look like when it snows, temps will be around 20-25 degrees. That may give a 12:1 to 14:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Tulsa has around 3" across most areas.. they have been tweaking it down a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I completely forgot about this site. Has Cobb method ratio and meteograms. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I completely forgot about this site. Has Cobb method ratio and meteograms. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html Yes tks for the link forgot that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's a pretty cool website/tool. Thanks! The 00z runs of both the GFS/NAM seem to lose the snow they were showing before. Not sure what that's about. JoMo, (or anyone else) what do you think about this? NWS Little Rock already bit hard by issuing a WSW. Are they going to end up having to eat crow? Seems like the models are all over the place with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 That's a pretty cool website/tool. Thanks! The 00z runs of both the GFS/NAM seem to lose the snow they were showing before. Not sure what that's about. JoMo, (or anyone else) what do you think about this? NWS Little Rock already bit hard by issuing a WSW. Are they going to end up having to eat crow? Seems like the models are all over the place with each run. They might. 00z Euro has very little snow. 0.2" at Fayetteville. 0.8" up here. 00z Euro says 50's-60's for highs next week though. Major GOA low with a torch into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z Euro is about the same. More snow possible in central kansas and wherever that system tracks, but not looking like a huge deal overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do any of our Kansas and/or Missouri folks have reports on last night's minor snow event? Just eyeballing radars, it looked like, for those in the path (in Southern Kansas and Southwest MO), it might have been good for a quick 1" to 3" of high-ratio powder. In Central Oklahoma, we had just a bit of freezing drizzle overnight and the occasional super-light snow flurry this morning. I am cautiously optimistic that tonight we will get one last snowfall that will be sufficient to cover the grass. It sure looks like tomorrow is going to be the last day of the winter of 2013/14 in these parts so I've got my fingers crossed that we get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do any of our Kansas and/or Missouri folks have reports on last night's minor snow event? Just eyeballing radars, it looked like, for those in the path (in Southern Kansas and Southwest MO), it might have been good for a quick 1" to 3" of high-ratio powder. In Central Oklahoma, we had just a bit of freezing drizzle overnight and the occasional super-light snow flurry this morning. I am cautiously optimistic that tonight we will get one last snowfall that will be sufficient to cover the grass. It sure looks like tomorrow is going to be the last day of the winter of 2013/14 in these parts so I've got my fingers crossed that we get something. Generally 1-2" amounts with an isolated amount up to 3". I saw a 5" report in southern Kansas under one of the bands. Probably got around 1/2-1" here. It's possible the cold does return in March, but that time of year you need a storm tracking really far south to take advantage of it and I'm not sure that's going to happen. Not a fan of spring severe season, so I'm already looking ahead to next winter. It's been a very active winter this year. Next year is looking like an El Nino from all available guidance. Assuming the warm NE Pacific pool stays put, that may make things really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do any of our Kansas and/or Missouri folks have reports on last night's minor snow event? Just eyeballing radars, it looked like, for those in the path (in Southern Kansas and Southwest MO), it might have been good for a quick 1" to 3" of high-ratio powder. In Central Oklahoma, we had just a bit of freezing drizzle overnight and the occasional super-light snow flurry this morning. I am cautiously optimistic that tonight we will get one last snowfall that will be sufficient to cover the grass. It sure looks like tomorrow is going to be the last day of the winter of 2013/14 in these parts so I've got my fingers crossed that we get something. Hey NJ_Ken...we had just over 4" here in Wichita...and .19" liquid equivalent...which is about 21:1 snow. Have roughly 7" on the ground here, though there has been some compaction due to sun angle and melting processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think what I've learned this winter more than anything is that I'm a big fan of the -EPO. I don't even really know what that means but it seems to be our friend. Although we didn't get the monster storm this year at least the snow has stuck around for a while. I enjoy the ground being white for a few days vs snow melting the very next day when temps warm back up quickly. If we have a March storm that's likely how it will be based on my previous experience. Hopefully March can bring us at least one more surprise. If not, I'm mildly satisfied. Beats the crap out of the last two winters for sure!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z NAM looks interesting for tonight/tomorrow around Tulsa and points NW. It falls apart before making it into my area but at least it's a move north. I'm begging for one last inch or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think what I've learned this winter more than anything is that I'm a big fan of the -EPO. I don't even really know what that means but it seems to be our friend. Although we didn't get the monster storm this year at least the snow has stuck around for a while. I enjoy the ground being white for a few days vs snow melting the very next day when temps warm back up quickly. If we have a March storm that's likely how it will be based on my previous experience. Hopefully March can bring us at least one more surprise. If not, I'm mildly satisfied. Beats the crap out of the last two winters for sure!!! Ridging in the Pacific. It's a cold look for the central and eastern US because it buckles the jet stream. A positive EPO favors more of a zonal pattern which means cold air typically stays locked up in Canada. The Euro ensemble control from last night and today does bring a snowstorm across KS/MO on Feb 22nd or so but you never know that far out what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just eyeballing radars again, but it sure looks like Tulsa is in the crosshairs tonight... well, at least to the extent that a 1 to 3-inch snowstorm can put anybody in the crosshairs. Unless something starts popping soon, the Oklahoma City metro is looking like a coating at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just got the Euro Weeklies from last night. They have a western US trough with a ridge SW of Alaska. That is going to promote another cold air dump as we go into the last week of Feb into early-mid March. The control run shows a variable pattern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Um..just woke up to take the dogs out: and this is what I just saw!! What the heck!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nice event to watch her in Tulsa. Obviously nothing to remarkable, but it's always nice for the narrow band to line up over your neck of the woods. Wish the air weren't so dry. Cut down on totals. Still, a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll take a surprise 2-3 inches anyday!! But seriously, I went to bed and they said a few flurries or up to 1 inch, lol:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'll take a surprise 2-3 inches anyday!! But seriously, I went to bed and they said a few flurries or up to 1 inch, lol:) I pointed out yesterday afternoon that, just by eyeballing the radar, it was apparent that the band of snow was heading straight for Tulsa and was almost certainly going to miss OKC altogether.... and that is exactly what happened. I am not claiming to have any meteorological skill, but, when temps are not an issue and the precip can be readily tracked on radar, one doesn't need a PhD in climatology to figure out where the snow is going. With all due respect, I think in the winter the TV mets in these parts sometimes spend too much time staring at model output and not enough time checking conditions upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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