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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Have the Thursday and next weekend storms vanished from the models? Looks like the 12z GFS has one around the 11-12th.

 

On the 00z Euro (12z about to run) The Thurs storm looked pretty much like flurries, if that. Friday was a bigger system, especially from KS/OK border on north and more light snow or flurries on Sat. 

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SGF keeps hanging on to their snow/sleet forecast the rest of the day but the dry slot and radar speaks for itself if you ask me.

 

Gotta give it to the GFS for seeing that and sticking with it. 

 

Everything here shut down for the day and we ended up with 1/2"-1" lol

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Yea I just dont think they can look at radars or something sometimes lol, local news still hinting at things will continute into the nightime hours lol....who knows. Temp is a lil over 32 now, got a glazing on the trees but the roads are thawing and slushy now. Sounds like things have busted up there for you missouri folks? Back to a slop mix again, very very light stuff though.....next plz lol

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For us in Monett... it didn't really bust. Official NWS forecast had us in the 2-4" range. I wound up with 2.9" as of 12 p.m. That is pretty close to right in the middle. Some to the NW of us look like they did, although it isn't finished completely there yet.

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:lol: I had a good laugh when I woke up, looked out my window, then head about OKCPS closing.

It appears all we got here in SE Norman was a light glazing -- enough to make getting into my car difficult, but it doesn't appear to have accumulated on roads to any real extent, luckily. Oh well. :(

In fairness to OKCPS, we did go back over to some light snow from around 8 am to 10 am. Roads stayed wet but grassy surfaces did pick up a few more tenths of an inch. All in all though, this one was frustrating.

Sooooo, how is Thursday looking?!?

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12z Euro isn't very exciting for Thurs-Sat. Perhaps some light snow/flurries for the western 1/2 of OK on Thurs with perhaps a bit more possible in the panhandle. It dries up as it heads east. 

 

Friday may feature some flurries with some light snow possible in NE KS and over central MO.

 

Saturday might have some flurries in central and northern MO.

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12z Euro isn't very exciting for Thurs-Sat. Perhaps some light snow/flurries for the western 1/2 of OK on Thurs with perhaps a bit more possible in the panhandle. It dries up as it heads east.

Friday may feature some flurries with some light snow possible in NE KS and over central MO.

Saturday might have some flurries in central and northern MO.

That is not a good update. Please go back and try again. :)

Larry Cosgrove seems to think winter is pretty much over after Feb 15th.

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Larry Cosgrove seems to think winter is pretty much over after Feb 15th.

 

There's a possible system next Tues for SW MO and NW AR and SE KS primarily.... but with the way things have been going, I wouldn't bet on anything.

 

It's possible winter will be over. The storminess near Alaska has been forecast to build in for quite some time and once that happens our -EPO is cut off and our really cold air is gone. Not to mention the fast Pacific flow into the US due to that. Yesterday's Euro weeklies do break the Alaska vortex down towards the end of Feb into March, and another ridge develops off the Pacific coast and over the top, just like the 'cold' pattern, but by the time this gets established (even if it does happen) it'll probably be mid-march. 

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SGF gives in..

 

 

Meanwhile, we are becoming concerned that the dry slot with this
system will not only come in quicker, but punch farther north than
previously anticipated. This would cut down on accumulations over
many areas...including the Winter Storm Warning area. At this
point, we are going to lower expected storm total amounts by an
inch or two...especially along and north of Interstate 44. We are
going to maintain the warning for now, but may need to downgrade
it if current trends hold.

Overall, we are looking at 3 to 6 inches across the Winter Storm
Warning area...with localized amounts up to 7 inches. Amounts will
taper to 1 to 4 inches with localized amounts up to 5 inches along
and south of the Interstate 44 corridor. Believe it or not, the
highest totals in the advisory area may occur near West Plains
where they are already over 2 inches.

 

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Somehow managed 2" of snow at the Joplin airport. Roughly 1" here. Lots of snow back in central KS and Northern MO. Looks like, Lincoln, NE may get 5" or so.

 

Springfield said:

 

 

 

Well...the dry slot has nearly overspread the entire Missouri
Ozarks region with the exception of the far eastern Ozarks. This
feature came in much farther north and west than models
indicated...even as recently as last night. This likely occurred
due to a much quicker pivot of upper level energy across the
Plains.
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There's a possible system next Tues for SW MO and NW AR and SE KS primarily.... but with the way things have been going, I wouldn't bet on anything.

It's possible winter will be over. The storminess near Alaska has been forecast to build in for quite some time and once that happens our -EPO is cut off and our really cold air is gone. Not to mention the fast Pacific flow into the US due to that. Yesterday's Euro weeklies do break the Alaska vortex down towards the end of Feb into March, and another ridge develops off the Pacific coast and over the top, just like the 'cold' pattern, but by the time this gets established (even if it does happen) it'll probably be mid-march.

I've seen some great snows down here in mid march. Not saying it would happen but it could. Could mean a nice cool spring though. That's always a plus. Anything to make summer shorter and more tolerable would be fantastic for me. :-) Guess I don't really have many reasons to complain though. Not 100 percent sure on it but I think I just went on the plus side of my seasonal average for snowfall with Sunday's snow.

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I've seen some great snows down here in mid march. Not saying it would happen but it could. Could mean a nice cool spring though. That's always a plus. Anything to make summer shorter and more tolerable would be fantastic for me. :-) Guess I don't really have many reasons to complain though. Not 100 percent sure on it but I think I just went on the plus side of my seasonal average for snowfall with Sunday's snow.

 

Yeah it's been a 'good' winter.. much better than the last 2 years, that's for sure. There was just a lack of a 'big' storm in our area. Some winters we don't hardly get any snow or cold but we get a big storm that exceeds our average snowfall and that's memorable. I'm sure the people in central KS and N. Missouri will remember this storm since they will get around a foot of snow. The window typically closes in late march for any big snowstorms. 

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Same here jomo, the trees have a nice thick glaze going on them! The roads have now re-froze over. I would still like to see one early nighttime snowstorm that lasts more then 10 hours and no winds at all with a nice cold temp so its fluffy snow. Of course some thunder would be awesome as well, one can wish right lol

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Same here jomo, the trees have a nice thick glaze going on them! The roads have now re-froze over. I would still like to see one early nighttime snowstorm that lasts more then 10 hours and no winds at all with a nice cold temp so its fluffy snow. Of course some thunder would be awesome as well, one can wish right lol

 

I crossed off the following from my winter list so far this year:

 

*Snow before Christmas

*Steady night snow being illuminated by a light

*Greater than 3" snowstorm

*Big flake size

*Daytime snowfall

 

I have these left:

*Thundersnow

*Heavy accumulation 1+" per hour

*12+" snowstorm

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Roads are, in many cases, as bad around here as they were 24 hours ago. This snow that is falling under the radar beam gave me an additional 1/2" overnight... bringing my total from this storm to 3.75". 

 

12z NAM looks to bring some snows into the OKC area and mainly south of Tulsa tomorrow. It looks to dry up before getting to far NE. 

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Roads are, in many cases, as bad around here as they were 24 hours ago. This snow that is falling under the radar beam gave me an additional 1/2" overnight... bringing my total from this storm to 3.75".

12z NAM looks to bring some snows into the OKC area and mainly south of Tulsa tomorrow. It looks to dry up before getting to far NE.

Yeah. You never know. Doesn't take much moisture to make snow when its this cold. I probably picked up another half as well. I never get tired of watching snow fall so this morning was a pleasant surprise.

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