MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I like the instability wording. Would expect to see some pretty good variation in local totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hey all, not trying to barge in on your disco but, my Mom lives in Joplin so I keep up with it for her sake. Any way the latest SREF Plumes look pretty good for Joplin. They were kind of wishy washy for last weeks SE storm up until about this time & then they did really well. Hope the storm over preforms for you guys & send some our way! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140203&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=JLN&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=36.582179837526056&mLON=-94.50618422851562&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hey Don thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 How much further down could we see this sink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 30 miles either north or south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z NAM and GFS both looked like a slight northward shift. Not expecting any significant accumulation in the south OKC metro, but the total 3-day snowfall map come tomorrow afternoon may look fairly uniform over much of this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z NAM and GFS both looked like a slight northward shift. Not expecting any significant accumulation in the south OKC metro, but the total 3-day snowfall map come tomorrow afternoon may look fairly uniform over much of this region. Really? I only looked quickly and at Twisterdata (I usually need counties overlaid to make sense of the maps), but I thought the GFS shifted a bit south. I could easily be wrong, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NWS Tulsa says no major deal down this way. Doomed by the dreaded dry slot. Still issuing a WWA area wide though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yea noticed this also waterboy, they say very minor accums of everything because of the dry slot. Sounds like members on this forum think otherwise or am I confused again. Guess everyone has their choice of model though. It got alot warmer here today then forecasted, even with 5.5" inches of snow on the ground. ALot of that has compacted now from the warmth and that blazing fireball in the sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm thinking we might be in luck still. I'm in that spot where I could get nothing or a lot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm thinking we might be in luck still. I'm in that spot where I could get nothing or a lot now. That would be cool! I guess we play the waiting game and see what happens and how bad, or where the dry slot sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Really? I only looked quickly and at Twisterdata (I usually need counties overlaid to make sense of the maps), but I thought the GFS shifted a bit south. I could easily be wrong, though. It's not much regardless, but the QPF axis as a whole looks like a slight NW shift to me. It didn't really impact the numbers right around OKC/OUN, though. 18z: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=18&fhour=24¶meter=PCPIN&level=12&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false 12z: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=12&fhour=30¶meter=PCPIN&level=12&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false FWIW, RAP is much stingier for C OK out to 15z. I'm leaning toward the low end of the guidance envelope based on this area's history when the dry slot is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just posting cause this is a really colorful map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That's a beautiful map. Question is if its turning NE at that point or carries more straight east for a little while longer. Could make a massive difference for me. Looks strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does look like a potent storm, local weather(i dont remember what channel, go figure lol) said alot of the models are trending more wet and further south and he said he wouldn't be surprised to see some areas get much much more than anticipated right now. He was also saying it looks like more snow for NW arkansas crew here than originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Interesting updated discussion from NWS Little Rock earlier. They added almost the entire state into an advisory. I can't copy/paste it from my phone. Sounds interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL HAVING A LOOK AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE MADE SOME NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE IS TO BRING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE STATE TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS DO NOT REALLY TURN SOUTHERLY TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED COLD LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE. IN FACT...MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE SFC LOW CROSSES THE MISS RIVER LATE TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS BACK AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME THUS REINFORCING THE COLD DOME AND PROLONGING WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE NORTH...AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPES AND DURATION GOES...VERY LITTLE WAS CHANGED. THE ONLY CONSIDERATION THERE IS THAT A CONVERSION TO A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED. WILL AT LEAST HOLD OFF ON THAT DECISION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...BUT MAY PUNT THIS TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT AS THEY WILL HAVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE TO LOOK AT. FURTHER SOUTH...IT WAS WELL AGREED UPON THAT A WINTRY MIX WOULD OCCUR AS PRECIPITATION MOVED IN TUE MORNING. THE IMPACT WAS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. HOWEVER...NEW MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS QUICK TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AND MAY LAST CONSIDERABLY LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ADDITIONALLY THIS WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AREAS FROM NEAR WALDRON UP TO RUSSELLVILLE AND OVER TO HEBER SPRINGS AND BATESVILLE MAY NOT SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN AT ALL TOMORROW.ittle Rock: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well that's.... different... on the 00z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Thanks for posting it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good ole NAM. Lets just broadbrush 2-4 around here and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This is getting more interesting for down this way now lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Good ole NAM. Lets just broadbrush 2-4 around here and hope for the best. That's better than it looked about 24-36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 looking worse (as in less snow) up my way. all i want is 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 looking worse (as in less snow) up my way. all i want is 6-7" Sheesh, greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Doug Heady said heaviest bands from 8 AM to 2 PM. Could be 1"/hr rates, or maybe a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Tulsa updated their snow amounts for Tues: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And the 00z GFS is drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Now the GFS has a donut hole where SGF is calling for the most snow in our area lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Now the GFS has a donut hole where SGF is calling for the most snow in our area lol. The HRRR has had a look just like what the NAM is showing with a second band moving into SW MO... so that's good. It also has a punch of drier air, or an area of no precip, but that passes just to your SE and it isn't very big. Why does it always have to be difficult in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM showing same drying trend up the I-44 as the GFS shows. Lets hope this isnt the new trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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