JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 JoMo do you have the totals map yet from the GFS? yeah, it didn't change much. Just an increase in precip tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That doesn't look too bad. I was looking at it again and I think that it may surprise some like yesterday's did. Looks like it could be every bit as good, just farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What's the RGEM for me, Wildweatherman, and NWWhiteout show? Are we still stuck with a mixed bag? It shows: And only has a bit of freezing rain early on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ok that settles it I'm riding the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GGEM looks very similar. On to the Euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It shows: And only has a bit of freezing rain early on.... Bit of a snow hole there in the tulsa proper area with about 3 inches or so...then quickly totals pile up outside that snow hole...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hmm could this maybe get interesting again lol. I still think we are gonna have mixing issues here but I think you guys up in missouri are good to go this round, until the dryslot kills us all lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like our end of week system is becoming another southern storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z Euro looks pretty similar to the 12z run. The 10:1 snow map says: Around 6" out by Wichita OKC area around 1.5" Tulsa: 2.1" Chanute, KS: 3.8" Joplin: 2.4" Monett: 2.3" Springfield: 2.6" Fayetteville: 1.7" 12z Euro amounts: Around 6" out by Wichita OKC area around 1.5-2" Tulsa: 2.3" Chanute, KS: 5.1" Joplin: 3.1" Monett: 3.3" Springfield: 3.8" Fayetteville: 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Awesome tks man. Totals are increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looking good! Hope it keeps going up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Tulsa NWS has either bumped up totals or made a mistake for tomorrow. Lol. Not sure which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Tulsa NWS has either bumped up totals or made a mistake for tomorrow. Lol. Not sure which. ??? I don't see what you're talking about? Snow totals for tomorrow are identical to what they were this morning. 2.1 inches in tulsa and 3 in bartlesville.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For some reason I saw that they left yesterdays snow totals in the Monday to Monday forecast snow. They're the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For some reason I saw that they left yesterdays snow totals in the Monday to Monday forecast snow. They're the same. Yeah, I think that's a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah. Meant to remove that post but got side tracked with some other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah. Meant to remove that post but got side tracked with some other stuff. And they fixed it, back to the big goose egg for you on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looking at the last 3 runs of the GFS/NAM, there has been a slight SE shift each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looking at the last 3 runs of the GFS/NAM, there has been a slight SE shift each run. I'm anxious to see what the latest round of model data shows as it starts to become public the next 90 mins or so. I've noticed that slow drift to the SE as well and some of the Canadian models painting a decidedly heavier snow for the Tulsa area. Interesting that NWS Tulsa hasn't really changed their snowfall totals despite a drift upward in the NAM and GFS. They must be weighing some factors I'm not aware of because at this point it looks like 3-4 for the immediate Tulsa area and 5-6 up north in Bartlesville, Dewey, Chanute.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah. I have noticed that. It would not surprise me to see 2-4 again honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Kansas City has dropped the 6-10" snow line down to highway 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll take this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I still wouldn't be surprised to see a little further shift SE. I mentioned last night in a post about how far south the storm is digging around Baja before ejecting out. Storms that start is the 4 corners region usually have a good storm track for us. I know there's a lot of meteorology missing in my "logic" though but I think this setup is better than those where the storm comes out of Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I certainly hope you're right and we get a surprise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Interesting... 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Is interesting. Funny the I-44 dry slot is getting wetter and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 18z snow map again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hmmm...looks like moisture up a bit for the Tulsa metro and overall snow line drifts a bit south. Not sure what to make of it...will be interesting to see the GFS and Canadian models over the next hour. We're moving our meetings to Tulsa tomorrow in hopes of actually getting them done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Springfield and Wichita AFD's are out early today. Springfield: Accumulations will be greatest over the Osage Plains, oressentially along and north of a line from Girard Kansas toVersailles Missouri. 5 to 8 inches of snow is now expected withinthis region. The increase in snow amounts was due to the dry slotremaining south of this area, therefore, a longer duration of snowis expected.Also, there are some indications of upright and slantwiseinstability. Convective snow bands can not be ruled out.For locations along the Interstate 44 corridor, 3-4 inches areforecasted, which includes Joplin to Springfield, and to Rolla.Areas from Branson toward south central Missouri, are looking ataround 1 to 2 inches. This region will become dry slotted, and mayexperience some freezing drizzle Tuesday afternoon, cutting downon snow amounts. We took out the risk for sleet, since the modelsare now colder, with no risk of melting in any of the solutions. Wichita: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWESTTHIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THECENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOMENEGATIVE TILT...AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SINKS INTO THE PACIFICNORTHWEST. LIFT WILL COMMENCE BY LATE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT WILLBE FIGHTING INITIAL...AMBIENT DRY AIR. THE LIFT WILL INTENSIFYLATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT WITH DEEPLIFT/MOISTURE UP THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...MODERATETO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THEHEAVIEST TOTALS OF 6-10 INCHES ARE SLATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KSINTO THE FLINT HILLS...ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF A TROWAL AXIS.WILL ADD 1-2 ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEAST TO OUR WINTER STORMWARNING. THE FAR SOUTHEAST KS COUNTIES MAY PICK UP 4-5 INCHES ANDPLAN TO LEAVE THEM IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Springfield's updated graphic: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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