JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z Euro doesn't have much change with the Sunday system... A little lighter on the precip maybe.. Fayetteville with 2.0" of 'snow' this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z Euro is farther north with the Tuesday system and has a nasty dry slot poking in up I-44. The heavier snow will fall in central and northern Kansas and northern Missouri. Looks like a 1-4" event here in our neck of the woods with the highest amounts being in SE KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z NAM came in further north into Northern Arkansas with the snow tomorrow. 06 GFS was the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z NAM for both systems.. Eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Very glad to see the northward trend in the models. :-) Exactly what I was hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Should be hitting the freezing mark here in a little while and seeing this rain start to freeze up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow getting killed by the dry slot on #2, too far north on #1. Maybe next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 And the 12z GFS for both systems: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Geez this whole corridor getting shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow getting killed by the dry slot on #2, too far north on #1. Maybe next weekend. I don't think any model has an idea with what will happen with the storm after the Tues storm. I'd say it looks good for a widespread snow event in really cold temps so high snow ratios will be possible even if it is just overrunning and not a wrapped up system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yeah maybe our last good chance for a widespread decent snow. 12z Ggem looks a little better for tuesday, less dry slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Watches and advisories everywhere just south and west of here lol. Temp was around 52 at midnight and now it's 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looking quite likely that we'll be missed S tomorrow, then N and E on Tuesday. Late week system or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro came a little north with the Sunday system... 2.6" in Fayetteville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ok whats going on with this weather, 30 percent chance of rain today huh lol! Its been puring all morning, 32.8 here now and really close to this stuff freezing. We gotta run to bentonville today and Im sure its allready below freezing up there! Really dont wanna drive on 540 in this kinda weather cause theres always masses of accidents on that highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Im having trouble trusting any model at this point, even the euro. May not be a good feel on this until tomorrow night when a good sampling can be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Im having trouble trusting any model at this point, even the euro. May not be a good feel on this until tomorrow night when a good sampling can be made. Yea man this forecast has just been in constant flux and everchanging every hour or so lol. Someone on this board is in rogers, if you see this whats it doing and whats it like up that way plz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 12z Euro had a bit more precip, less dryslot than last night for the Tues storm... Let's call it 2-4" in SW MO, SE KS, parts of NE OK. And 1-3" in the southern part of NE OK and NW AR for the Tues storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I just read another board post from st louis that the euro is a disaster anywhere from SGF up thru STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 bleh went from looking good to being just bleh, Im ready for spring to be honest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I need one more good one man just one more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I just read another board post from st louis that the euro is a disaster anywhere from SGF up thru STL. Still 2-4" or so, assuming it's snow. The winner is central Kansas up into northern Kansas and northern MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So really no big changes then on the euro. Hope for some convective elements to enhance our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So really no big changes then on the euro. Hope for some convective elements to enhance our totals. Not a lot, looks better than last night... slightly. The farther SE you go, the more you ride the line of freezing precip vs snow... It's going to be close for you at the start on what kind of precip you get. The system(s) after the Tues system are still sorting themselves out... This run has a stronger system and temps are warmer than the previous run though, but it would still probably be a snow situation, with a mix farther south across Arkansas. It'll change a lot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looking quite likely that we'll be missed S tomorrow, then N and E on Tuesday. Late week system or bust. I was going to say the same thing. It is looking increasingly likely that Central Oklahoma is going to split the uprights on these next two events. Tomorrow's will slide south and Tuesday's will pass to the north with little more than a few flakes/sleet pellets here. I hope I am wrong, of course, and the model mayhem means there is certainly a chance that one or the other (or both) will trend better for us.... But I don't have a good feeling at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This 12z Euro run made a big change in the extended though. The big Gulf of Alaska low doesn't really materialize this run, there's a weaker low retrograding up there and there's a ridge building in the Pacific and a western trough with a system in the southwest. That's a complete 180 from last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z NAM looks awesome!!! NWA in the 6+ inch narrow band. I like the continuing trend of moving northward ever so slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z NAM looks awesome!!! NWA in the 6+ inch narrow band. I like the continuing trend of moving northward ever so slightly.Yes u guys down there may do well tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Another 2-3 runs north and we'd be in tomorrow's system, MoWeatherguy... lol The 12z Euro ensembles/control delay the GOA low until later in the 15 day period but they still have it.... so the demise of winter is delayed a few days.... and I hope that keeps happening each run, heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yah was thinking the same. It wont take much more N move and we get a good dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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