JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z GFS ensemble members for the Tues system.. Not bad, not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like a pretty quick hitter. Maybe a quick transition too from a little ice over to a period of heavier snow on the backside. I could see this laying down a good 2-4 inches in this area. JoMo - do you have the totals from the Euro by location? JLN, Monett, FAY, Branson/Harrison. Just to get an idea of where its heaviest precip is? Tks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 In the much shorter range, I am starting to wonder if things might not start to get slightly interesting later today and especially this evening in Central and NE Oklahoma. The forecast already called for a slight chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle late tonight, but, as of right now, the front has gone through both OKC and Tulsa and now some drizzle/light rain seems to be popping up generally along the I-44 corridor as I type this. Right now, OKC is reporting overcast and 40 F with a DP of 31 F and Wiley Post airport on the north side of town is reporting 38/29. Meanwhile, TUL is reporting drizzle and 36/32 while Bartlesville is already down to 31 F and reporting freezing rain. We are several hours away from freezing temperatures in OKC, but Tulsa just might see some icing as early as the evening rush with OKC perhaps getting down to freezing a few hours later. Obviously, this is small potatoes compared to what is happening elsewhere and what might happen here later this weekend and early next week, but ice is ice and it doesn't take much to ruin somebody's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like a pretty quick hitter. Maybe a quick transition too from a little ice over to a period of heavier snow on the backside. I could see this laying down a good 2-4 inches in this area. JoMo - do you have the totals from the Euro by location? JLN, Monett, FAY, Branson/Harrison. Just to get an idea of where its heaviest precip is? Tks For both the Sunday system and Tuesday system: 12z Euro 10:1 ratio 'snow': OKC = Around 5" Tulsa: 4-4.5" Chanute, KS: 6.3" Wichita: Around 6" Joplin: 5.1" Monett: 5.3" Springfield: 6.7" NW Arkansas is a jumbled mess, but it looks like 4.9" in Fayetteville and slightly more the farther north you go. Harrison, AR around: 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OK tks man. Is most of it in MO falling on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 OK tks man. Is most of it in MO falling on Tuesday? Yeah, you can take about 0.5" off the total in Monett for what is supposed to fall Sunday. Overall for Tuesday.. 2-5" areawide is a decent bet for 'snow' (granted mixing will come into effect farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Man 4-5 inches of snow means basically I can't get to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lol. Same here. Desperately need a day off anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So we could be flirting with warning criteria around here. I think warning here implies 6" or greater of ice/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 In the much shorter range, I am starting to wonder if things might not start to get slightly interesting later today and especially this evening in Central and NE Oklahoma. The forecast already called for a slight chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle late tonight, but, as of right now, the front has gone through both OKC and Tulsa and now some drizzle/light rain seems to be popping up generally along the I-44 corridor as I type this. Right now, OKC is reporting overcast and 40 F with a DP of 31 F and Wiley Post airport on the north side of town is reporting 38/29. Meanwhile, TUL is reporting drizzle and 36/32 while Bartlesville is already down to 31 F and reporting freezing rain. We are several hours away from freezing temperatures in OKC, but Tulsa just might see some icing as early as the evening rush with OKC perhaps getting down to freezing a few hours later. Obviously, this is small potatoes compared to what is happening elsewhere and what might happen here later this weekend and early next week, but ice is ice and it doesn't take much to ruin somebody's day. As of 3 pm, OKC is at 36 F/30 F with haze, Wiley Post is at 32 F/29 F with fog, and Tulsa is at 34 F/31 F with drizzle. The radar still appears to be showing persistent light rain/drizzle all along I-44. I originally assumed that only Tulsa could be in for an interesting evening rush, but now I am thinking OKC (especially the north side of town) could have a bit of freezing drizzle before the end of the evening rush. Again, not a huge deal compared to what might be coming, but... well, look at what happened in Atlanta earlier this week.... it doesn't take much to turn a normal rush hour into a nightmare, especially when nobody is prepared for and/or expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As of 3 pm, OKC is at 36 F/30 F with haze, Wiley Post is at 32 F/29 F with fog, and Tulsa is at 34 F/31 F with drizzle. The radar still appears to be showing persistent light rain/drizzle all along I-44. I originally assumed that only Tulsa could be in for an interesting evening rush, but now I am thinking OKC (especially the north side of town) could have a bit of freezing drizzle before the end of the evening rush. Again, not a huge deal compared to what might be coming, but... well, look at what happened in Atlanta earlier this week.... it doesn't take much to turn a normal rush hour into a nightmare, especially when nobody is prepared for and/or expecting it. Looks like you may get a light glazing of freezing drizzle? It's been warm down there recently though and it doesn't look to get too cold. Going to be a race between what's left over of the moisture and the cooler air filtering in behind the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is anyone else as confused as I am? Lol!!! After reading the AFD's from OKC, TSA, and Springfield I don't know if we're getting anything Sunday at all, if Tuesday will be rain, fz rain, sleet, or snow, or if we get dry slotted. Very complicated forecast to say the least. We may not know until the radar lights up and we nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is anyone else as confused as I am? Lol!!! After reading the AFD's from OKC, TSA, and Springfield I don't know if we're getting anything Sunday at all, if Tuesday will be rain, fz rain, sleet, or snow, or if we get dry slotted. Very complicated forecast to say the least. We may not know until the radar lights up and we nowcast. Yea Im confused as well, its all over the place right now and is a constantly changing forecast. Still sounds like Monday night is it lol? into tuesday could get interesting for us if it continues to go south more on models idk. Sounds like a mess for our area right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Is anyone else as confused as I am? Lol!!! After reading the AFD's from OKC, TSA, and Springfield I don't know if we're getting anything Sunday at all, if Tuesday will be rain, fz rain, sleet, or snow, or if we get dry slotted. Very complicated forecast to say the least. We may not know until the radar lights up and we nowcast. Still have a few days for the system to shift north or south. We are almost always on the boundary of all types of precip possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like you may get a light glazing of freezing drizzle? It's been warm down there recently though and it doesn't look to get too cold. Going to be a race between what's left over of the moisture and the cooler air filtering in behind the system. Agreed. NWS Tulsa and NWS Norman did finally put up some WWAs, but they don't get down this far south. Tulsa's included the immediate Tulsa area but nothing south of there, and Norman's are well to the north of OKC (I think Stillwater is about the closest the WWAs get). Regardless, I am just happy to have cold air back in place. Nothing good can happen without the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My hopes are growing smaller by the day now. Looks like a crap-fest where I'm at. In the middle of 2 waves and in a dry slot on one of them. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Oh ye of little faith. We still have plenty more model runs for this to miss all of us to the south and give Houston to Atlanta another snowmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Oh ye of little faith. We still have plenty more model runs for this to miss all of us to the south and give Houston to Atlanta another snowmageddon. Lol. Yeah. You probably nailed it. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think the system(s) after Tuesday have better chances for producing snow across all of the area. Colder air will be in place with overrunning happening. Either way, most people should see snow at least one last time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z NAM was pretty far south with the Sunday system. 00z GFS starts in 30 minutes. I'm worried the Tuesday storm system may try to come farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z NAM was pretty far south with the Sunday system. 00z GFS starts in 30 minutes. I'm worried the Tuesday storm system may try to come farther north. Lol. I will be so mad if I end up 50 miles in either direction from snow after Tuesday. Watch it snow all over I-44 and I-40 and totally leave me in a hole with a glaze of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GFS is better for you through the Feb 2nd system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 And the 00z GFS for both systems. Less ice on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the GFS slowly coming around to the Euro. Good to see it colder and back south a bit tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the GFS slowly coming around to the Euro. Good to see it colder and back south a bit tonite. Yep, now the wait until the Euro. I have no confidence in the GFS to figure out what happens after the Tues system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yah GFS way too sketchy at this point. Canadian looking even a bit SE of the GFS tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yah GFS way too sketchy at this point. Canadian looking even a bit SE of the GFS tonite. It's that nasty dry slot that wants to travel up I-44 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Man long range GFS looking horrible. Winter over after next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Man long range GFS looking horrible. Winter over after next week? Yeah, unless it comes back at the end of Feb into March, but it's not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So much potential next weekend. Almost looks like a carbon copy of tuesday, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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