MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like SGF is riding the Euro. We`ll take a breather on Sunday and Monday as temperatures onlywarm into the 30s and lower 40s. No precipitation is expected bothof these days.However, a more organized winter storm system will approach theOzarks Monday night and Tuesday. This feature will force severalinches of widespread snow to fall.The ECMWF is the model of choice, and has been extremelyconsistent with it`s mass fields.South central Missouri will have better moisture to available tothis system, therefore the heavier amounts of snow are expectedout there.At this time, the precipitation type looks to be all snow. Snowwill exit the Ozarks early Wednesday morning. I think a dry slotis very likely with this type of storm structure, therefore, thesnow could come to an abrupt end Tuesday night.This system will also drag another Canadian airmass into theOzarks, causing overnight lows to fall back into the single digitsThursday and Friday mornings.Speaking of Friday morning, another winter storm will approachfrom the west, with additional snow chances expected.It`s starting to get active...stay safe this weekend ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yah I'm looking for something different next yr like a Nino. That northern stream just seems to smash everything and moves too fast. Yeah, years such as 2002-2003 (snowy) and back in the late 70's (all snowy years) were El Nino's after consecutive La Nina years. I would enjoy the upcoming winter weather in case we don't get any until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, years such as 2002-2003 (snowy) and back in the late 70's (all snowy years) were El Nino's after consecutive La Nina years. I would enjoy the upcoming winter weather in case we don't get any until next winter. Yeah, I doubt us in Oklahoma and Arkansas get much more out of this winter. If it snows I will definitely make the most of it. :-) The folks in Kansas and MO still have a pretty good chance at seeing more snow by spring in my opinion. Probably a late Feb early march storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The track difference between the 18z NAM and GFS on the Sunday system is over 125 miles. The NAM hits SW MO/NWA while the GFS is down around Fort Smith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, I doubt us in Oklahoma and Arkansas get much more out of this winter. If it snows I will definitely make the most of it. :-) The folks in Kansas and MO still have a pretty good chance at seeing more snow by spring in my opinion. Probably a late Feb early march storm. You all look to get nailed with the 2nd storm next Friday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The track difference between the 18z NAM and GFS on the Sunday system is over 125 miles. The NAM hits SW MO/NWA while the GFS is down around Fort Smith. Lol. I know right! I need right down the middle or I'm screwed. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You all look to get nailed with the 2nd storm next Friday or so. Awesome! There is hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The track difference between the 18z NAM and GFS on the Sunday system is over 125 miles. The NAM hits SW MO/NWA while the GFS is down around Fort Smith. I'd take that, too bad it's the NAM, lol A general 2-6" snowfall across our area with the Sunday system on the 18z NAM. EDIT: (The Euro is south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, shifted it east and intensified it a little. They can keep it looking like that and move it back where it was at noon. Lol. GFS looking colder this evening so far though. Waiting on the rest of it to run out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z NAM back to reality probably for the Super Sunday Super Snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00 NAM back down to the south around Fort Smith again. Will be interesting to see what the GFS says. Local TV station 40/29 showed their in house model which showed 6.4 inches in Rogers. KNWA's model showed zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Anyone really think the main band Sunday will be that far south of I-40? Surely not right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The NAM's been pretty consistent with the track except for the 18z which had it way further north. The 00z GFS was also south and maybe even a tad further south than the NAM. If JoMo doesn't give us good news on the Canadian or the Euro we start writing that one off. It also looks like Tuesday's system was warmer on the GFS which had more of a rain/fz rain scenario. I'm going to be pissed if we miss out on snow on both Sunday and Tuesday. But, regardless of how it's been recently I always prefer the Euro over most all other models. The NAM is almost always overdone on QPF. Let's hope for a little more northward push by 12z runs tomorrow or we might just have to throw in the towel. Too early for that yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Friday's storm on 0z gfs is looking like a producer for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z GGEM has the first two systems kind of meh now... The first one is south like the GFS.... The second one is a bit north but the "Friday" system next week looks good for you all down there. Waiting on the Euro in 30 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z Euro is a bit farther north than the 12z run with the Sunday system. You all in NW Arkansas should get a little snow from it. Along and south of I-44 may see some flurries.. nothing to the north of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z Euro is a bit farther north than the 12z run with the Sunday system. You all in NW Arkansas should get a little snow from it. Along and south of I-44 may see some flurries.. nothing to the north of that though. So pretty much centered over the Fayetteville area? Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So pretty much centered over the Fayetteville area? Correct? Fayetteville gets 2.7" on the snow map... Anything NW of that you're into the 1" range. Probably around 2" where you're at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z Euro says the second system has less QPF and may just be a hair farther north. Not a lot of difference from the 12z run, although there is less precip with a general 1.5-3.5" showing up with this system. Average will be around 2" most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Fayetteville gets 2.7" on the snow map... Anything NW of that you're into the 1" range. Probably around 2" where you're at. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 00z Euro then has snow next Thursday night and Friday across the area.... generally light snowfall (QPF-wise) but it's going to be very cold so whatever falls will probably have a high ratio. Northern stream dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like you all are going to have some fun tracking systems for the next couple days! SGF's long term disco sounds pretty interesting. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)Issued at 258 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2014Cold Canadian airmass will settle in for the latter half of theweekend into early next week. Have followed the ECMWF closely withthe latest trends from Sunday through the end of next week. Therewill be an upper level wave moving south of the area Sundayafternoon. There has been a slight trend to bring some precipnorthward into southern Missouri Sunday afternoon. Will mentionlight snow possible for extreme southern Missouri with bestchances south of our area. A light dusting may be possible forareas of far southern Missouri.The potential is increasing of a significant winter storm willmove in Monday night through Tuesday night. Models are convergingon a solution but still have some minor differences on thermalprofiles and amounts. Snow will begin to develop and move in lateMonday night into Tuesday morning with Tuesday morning throughearly afternoon being the prime time for snow and some of it lookslike it could be heavy at times. There maybe some a wintry mix ofsleet and snow for areas over far southern Missouri.Will start mentioning some decent accumulating snow looksincreasing likely for the Ozarks with this system. QPF will be onthe order of half an inch to an inch. At least several inches ofsnowfall if not more seem very likely. This winter stormpotential will need to be watched closely through the weekend forforecast trends. That storm system will move out of the areaTuesday night.Very cold airmass moves in for middle and end of next week withfresh snow cover expected and high pressure overhead...temperatureswill be very cold and especially overnight lows. Long range models arestill indicating the potential of another significant winter stormsometime by the end of next week as well. Very active weatherpattern starting this weekend through end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GFS was fun. I'm catching up on the models now and will look at the Euro shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12z GFS was fun. I'm catching up on the models now and will look at the Euro shortly. By fun, you mean a skating rink? If that comes to fruition, thats going to be a nasty icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Euro doesn't have a lot of difference from last nights run with the Sunday system, nearly identical but a bit warmer and a bit less precip overall. For the Tuesday system, the Euro is a bit farther south than it's 00z run, and has more precip this run, so between the two systems, a general 2-6" of 'snow' shows up across our area. The Euro now has a weak overrunning system on Thursday with very cold temps so probably high snow ratios with that. Even more overrunning on Friday, but it's a little heavier, but targets SE KS and northern OK back into central Kansas. A weak round of precip showing up on Saturday and I think that's going to be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 By fun, you mean a skating rink? If that comes to fruition, thats going to be a nasty icing event. Fun.... as in active. Looks like it stays snow in your area? It's icy in my area on the GFS. It looks very close on the Euro for the Tuesday system. 850 MB temps hovering within a degree or two of above freezing. Areas of NW AR and NE OK and S MO may get a mix of something to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 From what I'm reading on another board the 12z Euro came in looking much better for at least the MO people on here. It's best looking run yet (for Tuesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Fun.... as in active. Looks like it stays snow in your area? It's icy in my area on the GFS. It looks very close on the Euro for the Tuesday system. 850 MB temps hovering within a degree or two of above freezing. Areas of NW AR and NE OK and S MO may get a mix of something to snow. Yeah it stays all snow around here. Out this way, this pattern we are getting into maybe just what the doctor ordered as far as severe weather season. Snow all the way to the front range, and a cold wave coming in to ensure it won't go anywhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I want more GFS runs that look just like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Keep me posted all. I am on the go and on the road this weekend. I am in the Nevada/El Dorado Springs area. Will be heading back toward Monett tomorrow. Hope that we don't get that glaze of ice that they were talking about until we get home. Then it can do what it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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