MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Good news on the GGEM then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z Euro not as strong with the Feb 2nd system and a bit farther south with the band of frozen precip taking it across southern OK and far southern areas of NW AR. Now the Euro has come back north with the Feb 4th storm and it would be a big storm for the area. Much of OK except the far south... Roughly the northern half of Arkansas... all of Missouri, and all of Kansas get frozen precip with the heaviest being over Arkansas and southern Missouri although there are 6" amounts in OK as well. Rest of the run is kind of a mess again with all sorts of energy spinning around in the west. Probably should wait to see if that gets sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Good to see the Euro coming back to the big storm solution. Getting close to its lock down range IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Good to see the Euro coming back to the big storm solution. Getting close to its lock down range IMO. yeah probably another day or so, if it can be consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Dont know that I've ever seen SGF put the purple (extreme) category on their HWO for snow/ice. Extreme being > 12 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK316 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHERCONCERNS TOMORROW BEFORE ATTENTION TURNS TO INCREASING POTENTIALFOR WINTER PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS.ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RETURN TO MOST OF EASTERNOKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLDFRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. WITH INCREASING LOWLEVEL MOISTURE UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT IS POSSIBLETHAT SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS MAY PROVIDE SOME HINDRANCE TO THE WARMUP...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM WARMING TO ABOVECURRENT GUIDANCE VALUES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL REACH REDFLAG CRITERIA...BUT ESPECIALLY THE ARKANSAS COUNTIES WILL HAVE TOBE WATCHED CLOSELY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDEDWITH THE MID SHIFT FORECAST PACKAGE.LOW PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK POSSIBLE ALONG THE KANSAS ANDMISSOURI BORDERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDFRONT APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURESLOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZINGRAIN BOTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT DURINGTHIS TIME FRAME.MORE WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY ANDINTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH OKLAHOMAAND ARKANSAS. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...THE TEMPERATURESTRUCTURE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE NORTH...AND SOMEPOTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. THE RUN TORUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THERE REMAINSCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON WHICH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILLBE MOST AFFECTED. HOWEVER...MOST MODEL DATA HAS POINTED TOWARDNORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SO WILL CONTINUE TOFORECAST THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ANY PRECIPSHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING THE DAYLIGHT HOURSMONDAY MOSTLY DRY.A MORE POTENT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR MONDAY NIGHTTHROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVESOUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA ANDNORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MORE MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITHTHIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHERICE/SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IS GREATER. AS WITH THE SUNDAYPRECIP...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITHCONTINUED POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THESOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE A SHORT LIVEDTREND...WITH THE 12Z MODELS LOOKING MORE SIMILAR TO THEIR 12ZCOUNTERPARTS FROM YESTERDAY THAN THEIR 00Z RUNS /ESPECIALLY THEECMWF/. MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE IN TODAYS DATA CONTINUE TOSUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS DOWN THE ROADIF NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCUR IN THE DATA TRENDS. DECISIONMAKERS ARE URGED TO KEEP TRACK OF THEFORECASTS/STATEMENTS/DISCUSSIONS OVER THE COMING DAYS...NOTINGTHAT ELEMENTS OF THIS FORECAST ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOWAND TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm becoming more excited about this maybe becoming a major event for somebody in this region. If the Euro holds serve a couple of more days I'll be even more excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not liking the evening GFS run. Still doing the north then south thing as usual. On to midnight's run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not liking the evening GFS run. Still doing the north then south thing as usual. On to midnight's run.... Just curious...where are you getting the new GFS run from? If its quicker than InstantWeatherMaps or Weatherbell, perhaps I should be looking for a new place to get forecast data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just curious...where are you getting the new GFS run from? If its quicker than InstantWeatherMaps or Weatherbell, perhaps I should be looking for a new place to get forecast data. Twisterdata.com does them at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z. All the others only do 2 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just curious...where are you getting the new GFS run from? If its quicker than InstantWeatherMaps or Weatherbell, perhaps I should be looking for a new place to get forecast data. I think he's talking about the 18z GFS. The nightly GFS doesn't start until around 9:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, the 18z GFS was pretty awful. Thankfully it's the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Just curious...where are you getting the new GFS run from? If its quicker than InstantWeatherMaps or Weatherbell, perhaps I should be looking for a new place to get forecast data. Twisterdata is super slow so I don't use it very often except for the 6z run that I look at when I wake up in the morning since it's already finished running. I use InstantWeatherMaps most of the time. Wxcaster has some cool maps to look at but I think you have to wait until the entire run is over. I really miss the Raleigh (I think that's what they were called) maps. They had pretty awesome snowfall maps but for some reason I can't find those anymore. I've seen a few folks on the other forums post a map from there every now and then so it apparently still exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The latest DGEX snowfall map is NUTS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Twisterdata is super slow so I don't use it very often except for the 6z run that I look at when I wake up in the morning since it's already finished running. I use InstantWeatherMaps most of the time. Wxcaster has some cool maps to look at but I think you have to wait until the entire run is over. I really miss the Raleigh (I think that's what they were called) maps. They had pretty awesome snowfall maps but for some reason I can't find those anymore. I've seen a few folks on the other forums post a map from there every now and then so it apparently still exists. Raleighwx maps are the AmericanWx model center maps aren't they? They went to subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z GFS.. Looks like a nice snowfall across Northeast Kansas and Northern Missouri on Friday Night/Saturday. South with the 2nd wave on Sunday... across southern OK. Well, that was anti-climatic... Basically the big storm is just a trough on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z GFS.. Looks like a nice snowfall across Northeast Kansas and Northern Missouri on Friday Night/Saturday. South with the 2nd wave on Sunday... across southern OK. Well, that was anti-climatic... Basically the big storm is just a trough on the GFS. Yah if Euro does that we may be done. My bet is still on a strong wave by tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Let's just ignore that run and pretend like it didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z GGEM (Canadian) looks like the GFS now. Booo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z Euro has somewhat backed off as well. Generally 2-6" of frozen showing up across our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like the 06 GFS was better especially for I-44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Dang. Tulsa shaved amounts back. Hating what I'm seeing at the moment. Really could use a day off work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Both the 12z NAM and GFS have increased snow totals for Super Bowl Sunday. FSM area looks like 3-6 inches. Hopefully the rest of the run will be good for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Still not quite there with next weeks storm per the 12z GFS, for most of us anyway. It does look better than the 0z run last night. Trying to come around to a Memphis low situation which normally can produce snows around here. Still too warm according to the snow maps but changes are still evolving. The Sunday wave looks decent for the OK/AR crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah the Sunday wave has been increasing. Hoping for a similar trend for the bigger storm. The GGEM has a ton of snow through 240 counting all of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z Euro didn't change much from it's run last night, maybe a bit farther north but the snow map has 2-6" across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It wouldn't be a bold call to say that within the next 10 days, everyone in our area will see some snow or frozen precipitation. Speaking of out to 10 days, that Pacific ridge has got some fight in it. Last night it looked like a big trough was going to build into the Gulf of Alaska which probably would have ended winter (unless it came back at the end of the month or in March). It tries to build this run, but fails as the ridge tries to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I agree I think most on here get accum snows over the first 10 days or so of Feb. How much remains to be seen but we are entering another active period of winter. The Tues system looks to have a little speed with it which limits our accums. I keep waiting on that big wrapped up storm that gives us the classic snowstorm. Maybe a bit later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I agree I think most on here get accum snows over the first 10 days or so of Feb. How much remains to be seen but we are entering another active period of winter. The Tues system looks to have a little speed with it which limits our accums. I keep waiting on that big wrapped up storm that gives us the classic snowstorm. Maybe a bit later on. Not sure it's going to happen with the dominant northern stream. La Nina/Neutral years tend to have more positive tilt troughs. Perhaps we will get an El-Nino next year... That should make things exciting coming out of 2 La Nina's and a neutral year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yah I'm looking for something different next yr like a Nino. That northern stream just seems to smash everything and moves too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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