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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Looks like not really much of a change on the 12z Euro ensembles. Just have to wait to see what happens with individual storm systems that may come out of the trough and where the trough sets up at. The Euro bias of holding energy too far SW may come into play with this type of setup. 

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Curious to see how it all plays out nxt month. GFS trying to dump the trough out west one run and then gone the next. I think we get active soon but not sure if we get those cold high pressures to the north to keep close by to help us out or not.

 

Should be available. I would worry more about freezing rain and sleet though if we can't get one to wind up to our south and it's just like back in Dec. SW flow over the cold air at the surface usually leads to more ice than snow. 

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12z Euro says there is going to be quite a battle shaping up between unseasonably warm air to the south and the Arctic air to the north. Our area looks like a battleground the last few days of Jan into the first few days of Feb before the colder air wins out and pushes south. 

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12z Euro ensembles and control run look INSANE. The ensembles have the trough farther east as a whole (still a west coast trough) but it's there through the end of the run. It's very cold in the long range. The control is much colder with a crazy, crazy, crazy amount of snow showing up. (1-2 feet)

 

Kind of a dream run if it was a bit farther south.  

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12z Euro ensembles and control run look INSANE. The ensembles have the trough farther east as a whole (still a west coast trough) but it's there through the end of the run. It's very cold in the long range. The control is much colder with a crazy, crazy, crazy amount of snow showing up. (1-2 feet)

 

Kind of a dream run if it was a bit farther south.

Where is most of the snow at on the control run?
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Where is most of the snow at on the control run?

 

Heaviest was from Central MO to Central IL. That was the area around 2 ft. 6" stretched back to SW OK. 9-10" along the MO/OK/AR border. The SE 1/4 of OK and southern 1/2 of Arkansas didn't have much. It was pretty cool to look at, but will be completely different tonight probably and it may have been ice, who knows?

 

The 00z GFS sure was icy looking.

 

 

EDIT: 00z Euro tonight looks like it's going to have frozen precip on Feb 4th 

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Uhh there's a Winter Storm Watch for New Orleans.. That's crazy.

 

12z Euro ensemble/control/operational run is showing a bit more SE Ridge influence up this way, and a bit more of a westward shift of the trough. That's to be expected this far out though and it'll probably shift around more and we'll have to see what happens in future runs. Control is still putting down 6+ inches from Tulsa north with over a foot near KC over the next 15 days. Subject to change wildly. 

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The 00z Euro operational run has frozen precip for parts of the area around Feb 4th. The GGEM and GFS have a system around that time as well. 

 

The way the 00z Euro looks is very similar to one of the storm systems we had in December. I forgot which one but it was the one that was sheared out due to a stronger northern stream system (PV) moving into the Great Lakes. The evolution of the storm is really similar. The heavy frozen precip with this is along the OK/KS state line and points north and east. Subject to change.

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We really need a south trend since that's a lot of snow the models are spitting out. I'd say from central KS to central MO on north look pretty snowy with the Feb 4thish storm. Probably be some ice south of that.

Still a lot of time between now and then. I'm still pretty mixed on where it will be. I think most of us get something out of it but not sure how much. If I was leaning one way or the other, it would be to the south. About I-40 and points north. Could change though.

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Larry Cosgrove posted on FB earlier about the Feb 3-7 timeframe.  Nothing specific.  He updated on the current SE storm then says, "We all have far bigger problems starting February 3.  Trust me on this".  

 

Some of the comments are from folks in our area.  Apparently the Canadian model gives us the smackdown.  I haven't had a chance to look at it yet though. 

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Larry Cosgrove posted on FB earlier about the Feb 3-7 timeframe.  Nothing specific.  He updated on the current SE storm then says, "We all have far bigger problems starting February 3.  Trust me on this".  

 

Some of the comments are from folks in our area.  Apparently the Canadian model gives us the smackdown.  I haven't had a chance to look at it yet though. 

 

It looks the best of the 'big 3' ;)

 

ggemsnow4.png

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12z Euro Ensembles/control does look a bit colder for the Feb 4th system. The control run has the 'snow' line looking about like the Canadian depiction above, with the heaviest snow (6+) across the very far north of OK, into NW AR and heavier 'snow' across much of MO. 

 

After that, the ensemble has the temps way below normal through the rest of the run. 

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Doug seems pretty amped up about 2 winter storm chances next week.

 

The 4th and the 7th from looking at the models. The 7th looks like a better chance for snow overall. Tonight 00z GFS looks like a big ole sleet and ice storm on the 4th and probably a better shot at snow on the 7th. 

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