JoMo Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 You left AR out of your covered in snow list above. I'm hoping that was just an oversight on your part. lol, whoops, I listed KS twice it looks like. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like not really much of a change on the 12z Euro ensembles. Just have to wait to see what happens with individual storm systems that may come out of the trough and where the trough sets up at. The Euro bias of holding energy too far SW may come into play with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Curious to see how it all plays out nxt month. GFS trying to dump the trough out west one run and then gone the next. I think we get active soon but not sure if we get those cold high pressures to the north to keep close by to help us out or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Curious to see how it all plays out nxt month. GFS trying to dump the trough out west one run and then gone the next. I think we get active soon but not sure if we get those cold high pressures to the north to keep close by to help us out or not. Should be available. I would worry more about freezing rain and sleet though if we can't get one to wind up to our south and it's just like back in Dec. SW flow over the cold air at the surface usually leads to more ice than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 06z GFS is a prolonged ice to snow storm for many in the long range. That would be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yeah that classic SW flow pattern starting to show up with that cold NE fetch at the surface. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z Euro says there is going to be quite a battle shaping up between unseasonably warm air to the south and the Arctic air to the north. Our area looks like a battleground the last few days of Jan into the first few days of Feb before the colder air wins out and pushes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z Euro ensembles and control run look INSANE. The ensembles have the trough farther east as a whole (still a west coast trough) but it's there through the end of the run. It's very cold in the long range. The control is much colder with a crazy, crazy, crazy amount of snow showing up. (1-2 feet) Kind of a dream run if it was a bit farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z Euro ensembles and control run look INSANE. The ensembles have the trough farther east as a whole (still a west coast trough) but it's there through the end of the run. It's very cold in the long range. The control is much colder with a crazy, crazy, crazy amount of snow showing up. (1-2 feet) Kind of a dream run if it was a bit farther south. Where is most of the snow at on the control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Where is most of the snow at on the control run? Heaviest was from Central MO to Central IL. That was the area around 2 ft. 6" stretched back to SW OK. 9-10" along the MO/OK/AR border. The SE 1/4 of OK and southern 1/2 of Arkansas didn't have much. It was pretty cool to look at, but will be completely different tonight probably and it may have been ice, who knows? The 00z GFS sure was icy looking. EDIT: 00z Euro tonight looks like it's going to have frozen precip on Feb 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Uhh there's a Winter Storm Watch for New Orleans.. That's crazy. 12z Euro ensemble/control/operational run is showing a bit more SE Ridge influence up this way, and a bit more of a westward shift of the trough. That's to be expected this far out though and it'll probably shift around more and we'll have to see what happens in future runs. Control is still putting down 6+ inches from Tulsa north with over a foot near KC over the next 15 days. Subject to change wildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Here's to praying the GFS is close to right over the next 15 days. Particularly days 9-12ish. I'd take the high end or the low end of today's runs (3-9 inches) in my backyard. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Strong winds behind the cold front tonight. Wichita upgraded to a High Wind Warning. They are getting blowing dust and winds up to 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yea Jomo these winds are nuts here man! It knocked over and broke a 10 foot piece of our privacy fence lol! The landlord isn't so happy but oh well thats what I pay rent for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 00z Euro operational run has frozen precip for parts of the area around Feb 4th. The GGEM and GFS have a system around that time as well. The way the 00z Euro looks is very similar to one of the storm systems we had in December. I forgot which one but it was the one that was sheared out due to a stronger northern stream system (PV) moving into the Great Lakes. The evolution of the storm is really similar. The heavy frozen precip with this is along the OK/KS state line and points north and east. Subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I've always heard it said that it loves to snow in February. But I'm not sure about next week according to the GFS anyway. Looks like a very wet system with a ton of rain. Go figure we get moisture to return again to the area and we don't have enough cold air supply to make it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We really need a south trend since that's a lot of snow the models are spitting out. I'd say from central KS to central MO on north look pretty snowy with the Feb 4thish storm. Probably be some ice south of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We really need a south trend since that's a lot of snow the models are spitting out. I'd say from central KS to central MO on north look pretty snowy with the Feb 4thish storm. Probably be some ice south of that. Still a lot of time between now and then. I'm still pretty mixed on where it will be. I think most of us get something out of it but not sure how much. If I was leaning one way or the other, it would be to the south. About I-40 and points north. Could change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Larry Cosgrove posted on FB earlier about the Feb 3-7 timeframe. Nothing specific. He updated on the current SE storm then says, "We all have far bigger problems starting February 3. Trust me on this". Some of the comments are from folks in our area. Apparently the Canadian model gives us the smackdown. I haven't had a chance to look at it yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This is what the 12z GFS has at 192. The 12z Euro has a 1001 MB low near or just SW of Ft. Smith with the freezing line along or just north of a Ponca City, to Joplin on east line with a ton of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Larry Cosgrove posted on FB earlier about the Feb 3-7 timeframe. Nothing specific. He updated on the current SE storm then says, "We all have far bigger problems starting February 3. Trust me on this". Some of the comments are from folks in our area. Apparently the Canadian model gives us the smackdown. I haven't had a chance to look at it yet though. It looks the best of the 'big 3' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z Euro Ensembles/control does look a bit colder for the Feb 4th system. The control run has the 'snow' line looking about like the Canadian depiction above, with the heaviest snow (6+) across the very far north of OK, into NW AR and heavier 'snow' across much of MO. After that, the ensemble has the temps way below normal through the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 So 2 of the big 3 dump good snows across most of this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, I guess the Canadian agrees with me. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 There will probably be a big area of freezing rain/sleet, so remember the snow maps probably aren't all 'snow'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know. Too early to tell on that also. By the lastest gfs run it looks to be 2 pretty decent storms in rapid succession. That would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Doug seems pretty amped up about 2 winter storm chances next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Doug seems pretty amped up about 2 winter storm chances next week. The 4th and the 7th from looking at the models. The 7th looks like a better chance for snow overall. Tonight 00z GFS looks like a big ole sleet and ice storm on the 4th and probably a better shot at snow on the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The 0z GFS is wetter and colder than earlier runs for next week (mon-tues). Nice winter storm for some if not most of this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z GFS through 192 (First storm still ending). The QPF that is each precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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