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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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We are in the upper 30s here in Central OK.  It is a darn miserable day with a cold steady drizzle, but, for now, nothing is freezing so we got that going for us... which is nice.

 

OUN seems pretty certain that temps will drop in the immediate OKC area (and points north and east) tonight and that, at least for several hours overnight, there will be some icing.  Considering the drizzle seems to have arrived well ahead of schedule (if memory serves, the forecast this morning called for the arrival of drizzle after 4 pm), I am hoping the drop in temps will not be similarly early and muck up the evening rush.  So far, things look fine with both temps and dewpoints solidly above freezing, but we all know how quickly things can change.     

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JoMo,

 

I noticed over on the SE Forum a post earlier today discussing JB's tweet about the Euro at day 10 with a massive cold plunge again and a strong wave associated with it.  What insight can you add for us? 

 

Thanks. 

 

Today's 12z Euro was warm with the cold air headed east across Canada. We'll see if that sticks around or not or if it gets back to the colder solution it had last night and the day before.

 

This is what JB posted:

 

Bder2gKCIAAB_Wc.png

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We are in the upper 30s here in Central OK.  It is a darn miserable day with a cold steady drizzle, but, for now, nothing is freezing so we got that going for us... which is nice.

 

OUN seems pretty certain that temps will drop in the immediate OKC area (and points north and east) tonight and that, at least for several hours overnight, there will be some icing.  Considering the drizzle seems to have arrived well ahead of schedule (if memory serves, the forecast this morning called for the arrival of drizzle after 4 pm), I am hoping the drop in temps will not be similarly early and muck up the evening rush.  So far, things look fine with both temps and dewpoints solidly above freezing, but we all know how quickly things can change.     

 

I have to admit that I was a bit dubious about temperatures dropping enough here to give us any ice tonight.  When I made the above post, air temperatures in Central OK were in the upper 30s and dewpoints were in the mid 30s so I figured we were safe.  Well, in the last hour both air temperature and dewpoints have dropped two degrees from 38/35 to 36/33.  Cooler air IS filtering in and between that and the approach of nightfall, things might just get a bit messy here after all, and it could well start happening sooner rather than later.   

 

EDIT:  OUN does not seem very gung ho on the idea that any kind of advisories will be necessary overnight.  I feel for them.  Situations like this are always dicey.  They don't want to "cry wolf" too soon and risk desensitizing people, but you also don't want people going out expecting wet roads and ending up in a ditch. 

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Today's 12z Euro was warm with the cold air headed east across Canada. We'll see if that sticks around or not or if it gets back to the colder solution it had last night and the day before.

This is what JB posted:

Bder2gKCIAAB_Wc.png

If that verifies, the next 2 weeks will be almost exactly like last week of November/first week of December. Come on big snowstorm! A guy can hope. Lol

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Haha sitting between stuff here, looks like sleet zr just to my north a few miles then zr to just the south. Theres like a green thin line of rain right through fayetteville lol. According to intellicast radar anyhow.

Lol. Yeah. Same just south of Siloam Springs. I don't think I'm going to be lucky enough to leave work tonight before the freeze though.

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If that verifies, the next 2 weeks will be almost exactly like last week of November/first week of December. Come on big snowstorm! A guy can hope. Lol

 

Nope, it's warm. 40's and 50's probably :(  Ridge needs to be farther west.  Coldest of the air is in SE Canada.  The control drops a system on us around day 15 and it's colder, but the ridge really needs to head back west and connect over the top. 

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Lol. Yeah. Same just south of Siloam Springs. I don't think I'm going to be lucky enough to leave work tonight before the freeze though.

Yea on intellicast radar it shows your area as freezing rain and sleet lol. Who know how accurate that radar is also though lol. Good luck on your way home, be safe!

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Totally agree with you on that. Give my heater and fireplace a break for a little while! First time I have had to run both at the same time was Sunday and Monday.

Man it sux here in this rental! They got a heat pump heater system in here and man it is horrible in the winter!!!! Thing just blows out cool air and nothing really warm so it just runs constant when its below freezing lol. The house is semi newer its just a crappy heat system I would never want again! Its actually pretty efficient for how much it runs but when Im cold I want real heat lol. Anyways rambling over, gonna try(keyword there lol) to fix my mtn bike this weekend and enjoy the warmth coming.

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The 00z Euro operational run was better out to 240.  Starting about Jan 18th, it has a big trough in the central US, with the coldest air across the N Plains. The ridge in the west is farther north and west.

 

Edit: Annnnd Day 11-15 on the 00z Euro ensembles is torchy. 

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I have to admit that I was a bit dubious about temperatures dropping enough here to give us any ice tonight.  When I made the above post, air temperatures in Central OK were in the upper 30s and dewpoints were in the mid 30s so I figured we were safe.  Well, in the last hour both air temperature and dewpoints have dropped two degrees from 38/35 to 36/33.  Cooler air IS filtering in and between that and the approach of nightfall, things might just get a bit messy here after all, and it could well start happening sooner rather than later.   

 

EDIT:  OUN does not seem very gung ho on the idea that any kind of advisories will be necessary overnight.  I feel for them.  Situations like this are always dicey.  They don't want to "cry wolf" too soon and risk desensitizing people, but you also don't want people going out expecting wet roads and ending up in a ditch.

Got the WWA last night, but woke up to everything only being wet here (definitely not complaining about that one).

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Got the WWA last night, but woke up to everything only being wet here (definitely not complaining about that one).

 

Same here.  I am on the north side and I was tracking temperatures probably until midnight and again very early in the a.m.  The 32 F line kept creeping closer but never quite got here.  Presumably the drizzle was steadier to the south because the colder temperatures seemed to be there with a bit of a warm spot (literally 33 F vs. 32 F, but that was a HUGE 1-degree F difference) over OKC and it's immediate burbs.  It looks like temps were at or below freezing south and north along the I-35 corridor, just not in the immediate environs of the city. 

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The 00z Euro weeklies from last night do retrograde the ridge back west....  But it doesn't happen until the 25th or so. So we might be kind of warm until that time. There is hope on the horizon though. 

As long as the grass doesnt start growing Im ok with it for a little bit lol!!! Its allready been crazy up down temp swings so yea whatever, its either brutal cold or fairly warm. One crazy temp swing of a winter for sure so far!

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After last nights 00z and today's 12z Euro ensembles. It's still looking like we should see a change back to a colder pattern around the 25th or so. There might be some temporary cold shots between now and then but they don't look to last very long and we would probably be on the western edge as the trough should be in the NE US and Great Lakes. Around the 22nd or so, the ridge in the west starts to retrograde back farther west probably taking up a position to where it has been most of the winter. 

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