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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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I found it funny that they clarified that a polar vortex isn't harmful to humans. I thought I got attacked by one a few years ago. Apparently not..

 

Media hypes stuff up and makes it scaaaary. It sounds like a giant tornado or something that is coming to kill us all like in The Day After Tomorrow or whatever that movie was called.

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So anyway, as of right now it looks like I'm due about 12 straight hours of ice Wednesday into Thursday. Oh fantastic. Lol Knew better than to think we'd make it to 38. Lol

Yep, I got that feeling this may be worst then the last one that dumped 2" of snow lol. I was right on that so we shall see! Its always the lil things you gotta watch out for.

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Media hypes stuff up and makes it scaaaary. It sounds like a giant tornado or something that is coming to kill us all like in The Day After Tomorrow or whatever that movie was called.

Yeah, on the Nightly News Al Roker called the Polar Vortex a "winter hurricane." Really? Go back to the morning show couch!

 

Wednesday looks more interesting with every model run. I am anxiously awaiting the 00z.

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 A Springfield met just posted that it is already -8º in Springfield. My weather station is already down to -3º! So much for a low of -1º. I know the winds will switch around and temps were going to level off, but apparently not soon enough!

Ya know I was just getting ready to post about the temps, its allready 4 here. Cant remember what the low was for tonight. I havent felt it this cold in a long time!

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 A Springfield met just posted that it is already -8º in Springfield. My weather station is already down to -3º! So much for a low of -1º. I know the winds will switch around and temps were going to level off, but apparently not soon enough!

 

My weather station keeps going between -5 and -6 and it's pretty spot on when the sun isn't shining on it.

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So we have ice/snow changing to rain over the next few days coming up...... Then the warmup that lasts for a bit. 

 

12z Euro ensembles have colder than normal temps returning on the 18th or so. The ensembles hold around normal to slightly above through the rest of the run which ends on the 22nd. The control run goes below normal on the 18th-19th and stays well below normal through the end of the run.  The control run is pushing ridging north and east of Alaska and that darn PV comes back for more and pushes into the Lakes again, that's why it's different than the ensembles which don't have that feature.

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Yeah, looks like a nuisance event coming up tomorrow pm through Thursday morning, but will add insult to injury for those still trying to get back to normal operations after the last event. This is especially the case in SW MO. Intrigued by slightly higher ice accretion forecasts from TSA in NW Arkansas. While that much ice wouldn't cause power problems, on top of the snow that would be a mess.

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Looking even farther ahead... the Euro weeklies have the +PNA developing in a week or so... at the start, and by week 3-4 they have pushed the ridging west so that a -PNA looks to develop (still has blocking over the top)  The entire evolution over the last half of this month and into the first of Feb looks like what the JMA was forecasting a few days ago and it looks similar to what we had back in Nov/Dec.

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Looking even farther ahead... the Euro weeklies have the +PNA developing in a week or so... at the start, and by week 3-4 they have pushed the ridging west so that a -PNA looks to develop (still has blocking over the top) The entire evolution over the last half of this month and into the first of Feb looks like what the JMA was forecasting a few days ago and it looks similar to what we had back in Nov/Dec.

This would be a good thing right?

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This would be a good thing right?

 

Should be. That -EPO, -PNA look that brought us the ice and snow back in early December I think it was? I'm not a real fan of +PNA as it usually causes a trough over the east and we get NW Flow which is usually dry around here.

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Should be. That -EPO, -PNA look that brought us the ice and snow back in early December I think it was? I'm not a real fan of +PNA as it usually causes a trough over the east and we get NW Flow which is usually dry around here.

Yeah. That is correct. I don't really use teleconnections to describe the pattern that much but I get what you're saying now. Thanks!

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Yeah. That is correct. I don't really use teleconnections to describe the pattern that much but I get what you're saying now. Thanks!

 

Yeah, it's difficult to describe without posting images. Basically we'll have to worry about the ridge being too far east (a +PNA), so that all the interesting weather takes place to our east and we'd be stuck in NW flow. In the weeklies, the ridge retrogrades to the west, which should put us in a better position for winter weather should there be any systems. 

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Wow so its colder in ft.smith then it is here right now! Craziness for sure but doesnt amaze me any really. Its 34 here and raining. If anything our temp has been going up a little bit since it started. One weather station says 34 the other says its 33

 

Dodging the bullet so far with the freezing rain again, but Im ok with that as I hate the stuff

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Wow so its colder in ft.smith then it is here right now! Craziness for sure but doesnt amaze me any really. Its 34 here and raining. If anything our temp has been going up a little bit since it started. One weather station says 34 the other says its 33

Mesonet says its 32 here but its always had a cold bias by 1 degree.

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