JoMo Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 00z GFS is still running, but just a heads up, it doesn't close off the next system around Days 4-5 like it has been and instead brings it out with enough cold air for snow. If it does snow, I take full credit since I renounced my 'i'd rather have warm weather if it isn't going to snow' statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 OK, a bit of encouragement for snow lovers from Ross Ellect at 40/29. The basic premise is that we usually have little snow by now (average 4" in NW AR), and we have had 0" - 3" - 0" in the last 3 years. All of which went on to offer some serious winter weather later in the season. The last few warm days have got me daydreaming about spring-type activities, but I fear that is not a smart thing to indulge in quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 8, 2012 Share Posted January 8, 2012 Ozarkwx, do you hate winter? I'm kidding of course. Tonights GFS run put me in a better mood even though we aren't in the best place to see winter weather and I would rather see a western trough. Of course none of this will matter in 30 mins when the Euro starts and shows something completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm not a Broncos fan since I'm a Chiefs fan, but that Broncos game was amazing. I think they lose next week, but Tebow played really well. I'm almost over my snow withdrawals as I'm not looking at every model every 6 hours, I've moved to every 12 hours... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm not a Broncos fan since I'm a Chiefs fan, but that Broncos game was amazing. I think they lose next week, but Tebow played really well. I'm almost over my snow withdrawals as I'm not looking at every model every 6 hours, I've moved to every 12 hours... lol How exciting is this lol? Probly gonna have to do huh Wednesday Night: Scattered flurries after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 How exciting is this lol? Probly gonna have to do huh Wednesday Night: Scattered flurries after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Pretty much the same here. I hope we don't go from a terrible pattern to just a bad pattern once the pattern change is complete. There are signs of a trough in the east which would result in NW flow in this area which is pretty poor for snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm not a Broncos fan since I'm a Chiefs fan, but that Broncos game was amazing. I think they lose next week, but Tebow played really well. I'm almost over my snow withdrawals as I'm not looking at every model every 6 hours, I've moved to every 12 hours... lol That was a great ending. Glad to see PItt go out this early. Tebow working some more of his majic. I'm with you I think they lose next week at NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That was a great ending. Glad to see PItt go out this early. Tebow working some more of his majic. I'm with you I think they lose next week at NE. yeah they already lost once to New England this year. The 00z GFS was awful, better enjoy the flurries in a few days cause that may be it until Feb or March at least. Of course the 00z Euro will be completely different though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 yeah they already lost once to New England this year. The 00z GFS was awful, better enjoy the flurries in a few days cause that may be it until Feb or March at least. Of course the 00z Euro will be completely different though. Sad now not until feb. or march....CANCEL WINTER lmao! This sux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yep, as predicted the Euro and GFS are different as early as Day 8 or so with the Euro colder. Model madness still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 hehe, oh that crazy 12z GFS has an overrunning snow situation within 7 days. It looks like it merges 3 different pieces of energy in the west to come up with this solution. Very.. odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL...GFS is always throwing me a bone!!! HA...this will change 50 times before it's said and done...I am hoping for it to move a little farther north..but it's something to get amused by:) Model craziness continues........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z Euro says no go on the crazy GFS solution above. Beyond that, model skill has been pretty bad with the pattern change but it looks like very cold arctic air is building in Canada which may make a run at us or get stuck to our north past day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 12z Euro says no go on the crazy GFS solution above. Beyond that, model skill has been pretty bad with the pattern change but it looks like very cold arctic air is building in Canada which may make a run at us or get stuck to our north past day 7. JoMo, did any of the GFS Ensembles agree with the Operational run? I don't know where to find the ensemble charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 JoMo, did any of the GFS Ensembles agree with the Operational run? I don't know where to find the ensemble charts. You can grab the ensembles here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallmref.html Not really, I think maybe 1 or 2 had something. I think the time frame is 132-144 on the 12z model ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Snow withdrawal, eventually you get through them and find yourself not caring if it snows or not. Of course, you have to go through the stages of grief first. 1. Denial - Oh, it's no big deal, the pattern will get better, all the models are wrong, we'll get some snow! 2. Anger- Stupid models, stupid weather, why can't we just get some damn snow!? 3. Bargaining - If we just get 1" of snow this winter, I will be happy... I'll do anything for just 1" of snow! 4. Depression - This winter is terrible, it's never going to snow ever again, I feel so hopeless. 5. Acceptance - Well, it didn't snow this winter, there's always next winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Lol JoMo those are good. Which part of that slippery slope are you on now? I'm just about to #5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Snow withdrawal, eventually you get through them and find yourself not caring if it snows or not. Of course, you have to go through the stages of grief first. 1. Denial - Oh, it's no big deal, the pattern will get better, all the models are wrong, we'll get some snow! 2. Anger- Stupid models, stupid weather, why can't we just get some damn snow!? 3. Bargaining - If we just get 1" of snow this winter, I will be happy... I'll do anything for just 1" of snow! 4. Depression - This winter is terrible, it's never going to snow ever again, I feel so hopeless. 5. Acceptance - Well, it didn't snow this winter, there's always next winter! Good one! Although #5 is not really accepting. You are sort of going back to #1 only a year ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm between 4-5 right now. Usually I'd be freaking out at what the 12z GFS showed, looking up all the ensembles, looking at all the other models, waiting for the 18z to come out to see if it's still there even if the 12z just ran. My first thought today was "haha, yeah right" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 That was pretty freakin funny. I seem to float back and forth between #1 and 2 most of the time. Right now I'm just pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 And the 18Z GFS took our storm and went east:( I have moved into ANGER and DEPRESSION...fixing to jump off that cliff!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I have come to acceptance rather quickly this season. It really doesn't bother me anymore that we won't see any snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL Jomo Im on stage 4 borderline 5. Could things get interesting this weekend? KY3 seems to maybe think theres a possible chance so does springfield. Doug mentioned it on his blog but doesnt sound to confident yet. And maybe just maybe wednesday night, thursday morning some flurries or snow showers, hell I'll take anything at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL Jomo Im on stage 4 borderline 5. Could things get interesting this weekend? KY3 seems to maybe think theres a possible chance so does springfield. Doug mentioned it on his blog but doesnt sound to confident yet. And maybe just maybe wednesday night, thursday morning some flurries or snow showers, hell I'll take anything at this point! Yeah the chance of light snow and flurries with the front is still there, probably more on the flurry side. The 00z GFS shows nothing interesting this weekend. Long range 00z GFS has a couple of fantasy storms, lol Euro will probably be different anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL Jomo Im on stage 4 borderline 5. Could things get interesting this weekend? KY3 seems to maybe think theres a possible chance so does springfield. Doug mentioned it on his blog but doesnt sound to confident yet. And maybe just maybe wednesday night, thursday morning some flurries or snow showers, hell I'll take anything at this point! Sounds like stage 3 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Maybe someone should call Tebow and see if he can help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So the 00z Euro has the arctic front coming down at 180 out ahead of an ejecting storm system, that may get interesting. There is some mega cold air up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well it's looking more active on the 12z GFS. You can clearly see that 'gradient' across the country. The cold air may setup shop farther north or farther south, there's no knowing at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Figures..right where I thought we would be...right on the line...UGH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Figures..right where I thought we would be...right on the line...UGH! Maybe not even on the line if the ensembles are right as they depict a farther north solution. It's just the GFS though, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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