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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Don't those snowfall maps assume 10:1 ratios though?

 

Yes, the snow maps are 10:1 ratios. I think the 00z Euro was showing 3-3.5" for SW MO last night so it knocked about 1" off (or 0.1" of QPF) but due to the Arctic air with the front, the ratios will be higher.

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Thanks JoMo.

This storm looks odd. Very seldom do we see storms where the precip "blows up" in Central/Eastern Arkansas after the low passes through OK and Western Arkansas.

The 12z GFS MSLP map shows the low tracks from Texarkana to Pine Bluff to Nashville. The heavy precip explodes in NE Ark towards Memphis/Cape Girardeau.

Not saying that can't happen but this isn't typical from what I remember. I have only my gut and previous experience to back this up.

Anyone else have thoughts on what the GFS/NAM are showing?

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Thanks JoMo.

This storm looks odd. Very seldom do we see storms where the precip "blows up" in Central/Eastern Arkansas after the low passes through OK and Western Arkansas.

The 12z GFS MSLP map shows the low tracks from Texarkana to Pine Bluff to Nashville. The heavy precip explodes in NE Ark towards Memphis/Cape Girardeau.

Not saying that can't happen but this isn't typical from what I remember. I have only my gut and previous experience to back this up.

Anyone else have thoughts on what the GFS/NAM are showing?

 

It's a positive tilt system so the precip occurs out ahead of it. The surface low is just a weak reflection, the main driver of the precip is the sharpening mid level energy (see the 500 MB vorticity map) that punches in from the west as it strengthens.  Now if this was a negative tilt wrapped up system, you'd get precip being thrown back behind into the cold air and we'd probably have a pretty big snowstorm.

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Well most of us on here will be on the sidelines as far as a big storm this time around as it has eastern MO on up thru the Ohio valley in it's sights. Win some and lose some. But I think the long range is still loaded with a lot of potential and it's just a matter of time before we're on here talking big totals for our backyards. Next weekend has a little of my attention if we can keep enough cold air around.

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Here's a quick course on the tilts of systems taken from the 00z GFS last night.

 

 

This first image is of a positive tilt cutoff over the Baja and NW Mexico. You can tell that it's cutoff because the the 564 and 556 lines are complete circles and you can see the energy bypassing to the north of it. If you look at the 570 line, it is open, and if you look at it like an open mouth, the open part is towards the upper right. So it's basically tilting forward or positive... like " / " 

 

cutoffpostilt.gif

 

 

We advance a few hours and our cutoff is heading into SW Texas. It is still closed since the 564 line is still a complete circle. If you look at the 570 line, you can see the open part of the 'mouth' is pointing nearly straight up. This is a neutral tilt. Like " | " 

 

cutoffneutral.gif

 

 

As we advance a little farther in time. Our cutoff is now in central Texas. The open end of the 570 line is now tilting backwards or to the left. This is a negative tilt.  Or like " \ " 

 

negtiltcutoff.gif

 

 

In positive tilt systems the precipitation is usually out ahead of the system. Neutrally and especially negative tilt systems feature more precipitation behind, in the cold air. In the above example, the system is going negative due to the energy upstream in Nevada and California. We would be hoping that this energy would 'phase' with the cutoff, strengthening it and pulling more precip farther NW into the cold air. The only problem with this example is there is no really cold air to tap into with this system and there isn't going to be a phase. 

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I still think this will be a solid snow event for areas of SW MO and parts of N AR. Don't overlook this event. To do so would be a bit an oversight of a decent winter event. Of course, it is deepening just east of us... but I am still liking our odds.

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May be going higher in reference to the colder air/higher ratios than just the standard 10:1. Who knows...

There are some indications from some of the in house models as well as higher ratios that this could be a little bit higher. I am a bit suspect of that, but with that said... I know some winters we would be excited with a snowfall like this. :)

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There are some indications from some of the in house models as well as higher ratios that this could be a little bit higher. I am a bit suspect of that, but with that said... I know some winters we would be excited with a snowfall like this. :)

Oh definitely. No complaints here. Still plenty of time for more snow.

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There are some indications from some of the in house models as well as higher ratios that this could be a little bit higher. I am a bit suspect of that, but with that said... I know some winters we would be excited with a snowfall like this. :)

 

Depends on how cold it gets.... and I'm excited for this small amount since there is no other snow on the horizon. The next system will be rain or freezing rain, and after that, we may have to wait a bit before things become colder once again. 

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Update from NWS KC Office:

Have delayed the southward development of snow into the CWA. Current

band of light snow from southeast NE across southern IA tied to the

passing of the northern shortwave with elevated frontogenesis. 12z

NAM and RAP keep QPF north of Highway 36 through 21z and based on

current radar trends and expectations seems reasonable to delay snow

development for most of the CWA. 12z NAM has also jumped onto the

previous runs of the GFS in developing two separate bands of

snow...one across northern MO associated with the elevated

frontogenesis and a second and likely heavier band tied to the chunk

of energy and speed max diving southeast into the Central Rockies.

This energy is expected to spread into KS/OK this evening with a

significant PV anomaly digging into the base of the deepening upper

trough.

Have also increased snow amounts across northern MO due to this first

band which is expected to from by mid afternoon. Have also kept

categorical PoPs longer over the southeastern CWA through the night.

Could see some light rain across the far southern counties this

afternoon with temperatures well above freezing. Shouldn`t be much

nor last long as the cold front will push through by early evening.

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00z Euro has 10:1 accumulations at... 

 

2.0" Chanute, KS

 

2.2" Bartlesville, OK

1.6" Tulsa, OK

 

2-2.5" or so in NW Arkansas. 

 

3.1" Joplin

3.2" Monett

3.8" Springfield

 

12z Euro 10:1 accumulations:

 

Chanute 2.0"

 

Bartlesville: 2.0"

Tulsa: 2.1"

 

Joplin 3.3"

Monett: 4.0"

Springfield: 4.4"

 

Fayetteville: 2.0

Far NW Arkansas: 3-3.5" or so

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Winter Storm Warning brought back west a tier of counties and includes the Springfield metro. Really think that might still be a hair too far east with winds and cold. We shall see how trends continue tonight.

 

Wind Chill Warning is now up for -20º to -30º wind chills Sunday night into Monday. That is not something you see every day.

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