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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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So Euro and GGEM are similar with the heavier amts this weekend. And yes it looks like the arctic boundary would create some nice ratios.

 

The 8th-9th is a date to watch as well. I'd be more worried about things changing to ice or maybe even rain eventually with that one though.

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The 00z Euro still had the Jan 5th event but it was a bit less, also the Jan 8th event has been moved back a bit and will impact Arkansas the most this run and it could be an icy mess that eventually turns to rain as temps warm as we lose the Arctic grip and enter a January thaw next weekend (12th or so) as the EPO swings strongly positive due to troughing over the west coast up into Alaska and probably even farther north than that.

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Still snowing here, got a dusting on everything but its hard to say how much for sure with this crazy wind whippin all the snow about! Forecast for the weekend is in constant change I see once again lol, model confusion? Rain/snow rain/snow....just the other day it was all snow now slop bag. Anyways Hope you all had a good and safe new years!

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Both the 12z GGEM and GFS produce a moderate snow event on the order of 2-4 inches it would appear, on Sunday, depending on ratios of course.

 

12z Euro has a bit more precip from last night, also still has really cold temps so we will probably get some decent ratios out of this. The 10:1 ratio map has 3-3.5" for SW MO... and even 2.6" as far south as Fayetteville with around 1.5-2.0" around Tulsa. 

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12z Euro also has the storm on the 8th-9th. That storm is looking like ice, but some areas may turn to just rain depending on how much surface temps warm. I'm sure the Jan 5th (Sunday) system will have an impact on the freezing line with this system as areas that get a good snowcover may stay below freezing. 

 

12z Euro and the 00z ensembles still show the troughing taking over near Alaska so we will lose the -EPO/-WPO and the really cold air. 

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12z Euro also has the storm on the 8th-9th. That storm is looking like ice, but some areas may turn to just rain depending on how much surface temps warm. I'm sure the Jan 5th (Sunday) system will have an impact on the freezing line with this system as areas that get a good snowcover may stay below freezing.

12z Euro and the 00z ensembles still show the troughing taking over near Alaska so we will lose the -EPO/-WPO and the really cold air.

There's still the hope though that the pattern shift will bring a decent negatively tilted and mature low to our area instead of the stuff we've been getting.

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There's still the hope though that the pattern shift will bring a decent negatively tilted and mature low to our area instead of the stuff we've been getting.

 

So disappointing to see the 252 hour panel of the 00z GFS..... It's a big system that doesn't have enough cold air on the NW side so we get rain.... 

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So disappointing to see the 252 hour panel of the 00z GFS..... It's a big system that doesn't have enough cold air on the NW side so we get rain....

Do you always have to rain on my parade, sir? Lol. A guy can hope anyway right? Lol. I know, its a long way away, there's no telling what it will be by then. 2 days ago they had an 8 inch snow in south TX. Lol

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Do you always have to rain on my parade, sir? Lol. A guy can hope anyway right? Lol. I know, its a long way away, there's no telling what it will be by then. 2 days ago they had an 8 inch snow in south TX. Lol

 

I just figured that would happen. Finally get a storm wrapping up, and there's no cold air to the north of it, until it gets north of us. Granted it will change, but it's still disappointing to see that instead of a snowstorm. 

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0z globals tonite still showing the liklihood of a 2-4 in snowfall across S MO and points NE saturday nite. Possibly greater. JoMo, anybody, with total Euro precip from 0z later tonite would be greatly appreciated.

 

00z Euro 10:1 map has generally 3-3.5" in SW MO.... 2.3" down by F'ville AR, 1.5-2" around Tulsa.

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Let's focus on the upcoming positive before getting all sad with a rainstorm and 40 degrees. :) I think that many of us will get a couple of inches. Up in WhiteOut's old stomping grounds of Humansville, they may wind up with several. The liquid to snow ratio is what will really help us. Also... watch for some clippers on the back side of the storm. The models don't do a very good job of handling those until it gets closer, but there are few hints of some.

 

At least the bone chilling cold will only be here for a couple of days. Lows are well below zero on the EURO Sunday night all the way into northern Arkansas. You may flirt with zero in parts of NE Oklahoma. Springfield is progged to be -12. Yikes!

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Yeah, It's still looking like we could get several inches of snow this weekend followed by bitter cold for a few days.

 

After that we get flooded with Pacific air which leads to temps around to above normal. After looking at last nights Euro Weeklies (and apparently the JMA and Korean show the same), the good news is that the trough in Alaska that floods the US with Pacific air does move out and the ridging rebuilds over the top and into the Gulf of Alaska, much as it has been the past few months. So even if we do warm up for a bit, it won't be the end of winter and the cold air will return by the end of the month. (probably after the 20th).

 

So if you're a snow and cold lover (and who isn't?), enjoy the weekend storm and the cold that follows. If you're a mild weather lover in winter (booo!), enjoy the warmup after, but don't get used to it.

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