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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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00z Euro has light snow with the Jan 1st-2nd system..... The Euro is farther north and west with the Jan 5th and 6th storm than it's 12z run. Best chance of a couple inches of snow over NW Arkansas and E OK. There might be some residual light snow with the Arctic front on the 6th as well. Very cold with a big east coast storm again. Might have another little system towards the end of the run that produces a little something. And the run ends with a system diving SE down the west coast.

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So what's it gonna take for these systems to track favorable for our area to get snow? Been enjoying vacation so haven't looked at any models... Only been hearing its gonna be cold! Well boo to that if there is no snow!

Agreed, seems like so far its either balmy out or cold and a waste of the cold lol. Heres hoping wednesday nights lil storm over produces! Tulsa is hinting more and more towards it everyday.

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That works. I'm only going to focus on NE OK/NW AR/SE KS/SW MO though in my posts. So most of the time, I'll be talking about that area, unless otherwise noted.

 

The 12z Euro has come back farther NW again with the Jan 5th system. It's now dropping a nice 3-8" snowfall over the area. The heaviest being along I-44 in Missouri the farther east you go. 

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That works. I'm only going to focus on NE OK/NW AR/SE KS/SW MO though in my posts. So most of the time, I'll be talking about that area, unless otherwise noted.

 

The 12z Euro has come back farther NW again with the Jan 5th system. It's now dropping a nice 3-8" snowfall over the area. The heaviest being along I-44 in Missouri the farther east you go. 

We shall see if it holds serve or continues to waffle. :)

 

For the record, here is the latest on tmrw night's snow from TSA's Decision Support Page.

 

SNOW24HRTHREAT20140101_1200.png

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The long range (Day 11-15) is looking ugly. The Euro has had a warmup for many runs now and the GFS is now jumping on board. It looks like the ridge into Alaska gets replaced by a trough as the PV relocates farther north, cutting off the supply of really cold air into Canada. Also a ridge in the NE. Temps look to go above normal as this happens but we are entering the coldest couple of weeks of the year so it's not too bad. 

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The long range (Day 11-15) is looking ugly. The Euro has had a warmup for many runs now and the GFS is now jumping on board. It looks like the ridge into Alaska gets replaced by a trough as the PV relocates farther north, cutting off the supply of really cold air into Canada. Also a ridge in the NE. Temps look to go above normal as this happens but we are entering the coldest couple of weeks of the year so it's not too bad. 

The way the models have been flipping around in the long range, I wouldn't put much stock into any one run. Thanks for sharing JoMo! Hopefully the 00z shows something different. :) Happy New Year!

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The long range (Day 11-15) is looking ugly. The Euro has had a warmup for many runs now and the GFS is now jumping on board. It looks like the ridge into Alaska gets replaced by a trough as the PV relocates farther north, cutting off the supply of really cold air into Canada. Also a ridge in the NE. Temps look to go above normal as this happens but we are entering the coldest couple of weeks of the year so it's not too bad.

My feeling is we are locked in this pattern thru Jan and into Feb. These type winters generally have repeating patterns. No matter what long term modeling depicts it becomes hard to get out of the status quo, which is why dry, warm winters can be so hard to break.
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My feeling is we are locked in this pattern thru Jan and into Feb. These type winters generally have repeating patterns. No matter what long term modeling depicts it becomes hard to get out of the status quo, which is why dry, warm winters can be so hard to break.

I'm going to have to agree with you. I don't see any signifigant changes to the pattern coming until late winter (Feb. 15th or later). There may be warm spells here and there but a solid pattern change looks unfavorable to me.

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12z Euro would have a bit of snow tonight, and then again on the 5th. Mainly for MO/KS areas, maybe extreme NE OK and extreme N Arkansas as well. Looks like a couple inches would be possible with more/most the farther north and east you go.  There was a change and that was to make the temps colder for the next system after that on the 8th. It looks like all of the area will have a chance of frozen precip from that system but temps look to be warming and it might end up being a mix of all types of precip. 

 

The 12z Euro continues to show the icy grip being lost across Canada as troughing develops over Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska and the PV relocates north out of Canada. This will probably be a transient thing as it shows strong height rises pushing back in to the Gulf of Alaska on the 00z ensembles. It looks like there would be a -PNA with the west coast trough and east coast ridge. The 00z control had multiple systems dropping into the SW and ejecting out... would be close for us.

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Heavier radar returns starting to fill in over S KS and N OK this evening.  Moving E and SE.  These heavier bands appear to be developing a bit farther south than what has been advertised.

 It has been interesting to watch their progression. Btw... good to see you around. Missed you during the last event.

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 It has been interesting to watch their progression. Btw... good to see you around. Missed you during the last event.

Hey 24/7 hows it been going.  Been lurking around here a bit but not as much as I would like.  Very busy holiday season this year with a lot of travel so havent had a lot of time to post.  This evening does look a bit interesting, and very cold as well.

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0z GGEM has a nice snowstorm moving thru the region this Sunday.

 

Yeah, there are some pretty cold temps at that time as well which will probably lead to decent ratios. The GFS has not been as heavy with the snowfall, and the Euro has been the most aggressive. 

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