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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Latest RAP wants to bring a bit more moisture down with tmrw's clipper than originally advertised. May want to watch it closer. Sometimes these bring surprise light snows.

Noticed that earlier today as well. Somebody may pick up a decent little burst of snow out of it. Any thoughts about anything on new years day? With the models all being pretty shaky lately I know its hard to tell but just wanted to hear what y'all thought.

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Noticed that earlier today as well. Somebody may pick up a decent little burst of snow out of it. Any thoughts about anything on new years day? With the models all being pretty shaky lately I know its hard to tell but just wanted to hear what y'all thought.

 

12z GFS is going for a pretty big southern storm on the 2nd. The GFS ensembles have had something from time to time as well. Something to keep an eye on.

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It has been snowing off and on here today. 

 

All of the 12z guidance has a storm system over the SW by hour 240 (Jan 2nd morning)

 

The GGEM/GFS have similar looking height fields while the Euro has more of a cutoff/farther south look. 

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It has been snowing off and on here today.

All of the 12z guidance has a storm system over the SW by hour 240 (Jan 2nd morning)

The GGEM/GFS have similar looking height fields while the Euro has more of a cutoff/farther south look.

Wow, I just checked it out and if that verifies, it would be awesome. I just looked at the wind patterns before I asked that the other day thinking that there is no way that low could make it through totally dry. I guess gfs finally agreed with me. :-) The other nice looking thing is that it doesn't have us torching for 3 days before it gets here. If it happened, could be a snow that stays on for days and days around here.

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Wow, I just checked it out and if that verifies, it would be awesome. I just looked at the wind patterns before I asked that the other day thinking that there is no way that low could make it through totally dry. I guess gfs finally agreed with me. :-) The other nice looking thing is that it doesn't have us torching for 3 days before it gets here. If it happened, could be a snow that stays on for days and days around here.

 

The 12z Euro doesn't agree though :(

Looks like the control run cuts it off, then drops it south. Still something to keep an eye on since a few runs ago it had a system phasing with the northern stream producing snow just east of us. 

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The 12z Euro doesn't agree though :(

Looks like the control run cuts it off, then drops it south. Still something to keep an eye on since a few runs ago it had a system phasing with the northern stream producing snow just east of us.

That's alright. I'm not putting a lot of hope in any of them at the moment. They all want to keep the cold here though and that's good for now. Meanwhile watching a nice snow shower out my door at work. :-) Cheap consolation prize for the crap that happened over the weekend I suppose. Lol.

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Haha, you know your winter is off to good start when we call a degree above average a blowtorch. Lol

Yep I have alot of adjusting to do here in arkansas lol. I dont think I have ever seen a christmas above 40(of course dont hold me to that as my memory is horrid lol). So far in all honesty it hasnt been too bad really with that 7" snow/sleet storm a few weeks ago.

 

And yep agree with jomo, those vids were cool!!!

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Looks like a boring next 10 days or so. The Euro doesn't know what to do with that energy over the SW in the day 7-10 range but if it remains cutoff, not much is going to happen. Northwest flow may prevail.

 

The PV is forecast to elongate and it gets squeezed into N. America.. The AO continues to drop and is forecast to go negative. The PNA will go slightly positive to neutral. (the 12z Euro takes it back negative at the end of the  10 days), and the EPO will bounce between negative and positive. 

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Merry Christmas everyone!

 

Lubbock's AFD was great.....

 

 

 

FXUS64 KLUB 242106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TIS THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHRISTMAS AND I AM AT THE HELM
TO BRING YOU WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE METEOROLOGICAL REALM.
IT TOOK QUITE A WHILE BUT THE SKIES FINALLY DID CLEAR...
THE ROLLING PLAINS CLEARED OUT AND MANY DID CHEER.

SNOW WAS STILL VISIBLE FROM OUR WEATHER SATELLITES ABOVE...
THE PANHANDLES STILL COVERED WHILE WE ARE BARREN OF.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT HINT TO OUR NORTH OF A VERY WEAK TROUGH.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING AS A TANGIBLE SIGN.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 60 FOR OUR AREAS HIGHS
BUT SHORT-LIVED IT WILL BE AS A WORD TO THE WISE.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
BREEZY AND DRY WITH NO CHANCE OF THOSE PESKY SNOW SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN A PART OF THE FORECAST AT HAND...
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IF THIS WILL COVER THE LAND.

SATURATION IN THE MODELS NEAR CHILDRESS LOOKS BEST
WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS GOOD AS YOU HEAD FURTHER WEST.
MENTION OF FREEZING FOG SEEMS BEST WAY TO GO
FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE SNOW.

COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER AND WARMER WEATHER AT BAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...
A BIT BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT UNSEASONABLE FOR OUR STATIONS.

MY CO-WORKER HAS LOOKED AT THE FORECAST BEYOND CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND THERE LITTLE IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST IN SIGHT.
STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST
NO MAJOR IMPACTS TO AFFECT US TO SAY IN THE LEAST.

WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ON VARIOUS DAYS
BUT TIMINGS ARE DIFFERENT WITH MINOR DELAYS.
ON FRIDAY MORNING...
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...
THEN ON WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
NO NEED FOR WARNING...
WE SHOULD BE RIGHT...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK BLEAK.

SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE ONE TIME THAT WE MAY SEE SOME SNOW
BUT THE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE MOST OPTIMISTIC ECMWF HAS SNOW FLURRIES AT MOST...
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL THE MODELS COME CLOSE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S IS NOTHING TO FEAR.
THE INHERITED FORECAST AND GRIDS ARE IN GREAT CONDITION...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED AND WE HOPE IT COMES TO FRUITION.

ANOTHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE IS SENT...
WE HOPE IT WAS CLEAR AND YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT IT MEANT.
TRADITIONS ARE IMPORTANT AND I DON/T WANT TO ANNOY
BUT I LOVE WHAT I DO AND THIS BRINGS ME GREAT JOY.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS HERE EVERY HOUR OF EVERY DAY
IN CASE THE WEATHER TURNS FOUL...NASTY...IS BORING OR GRAY.
AS THE NEXT SHIFT COMES IN AND OUR SHIFT END IS IN SIGHT...
HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL...AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT.

JORDAN/CHARBONEAU
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Very funny! I saw someone posted that on Facebook. Is everyone as stuffed as I am. LOL!!! Now I need some winter weather to track. Looks boring through the weekend. Guess I will have to peg all my hopes on the long range and the fantasy winter storms. :D Merry Christmas!

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Very funny! I saw someone posted that on Facebook. Is everyone as stuffed as I am. LOL!!! Now I need some winter weather to track. Looks boring through the weekend. Guess I will have to peg all my hopes on the long range and the fantasy winter storms. :D Merry Christmas!

I need some as well. Some seem to still be committed to the 3rd of January, give or take a day, to be interesting for some. Nobody is willing to bet too far in the longer ranges though. I guess the boring weather gives me a chance to catch up on my climatology stuff though. Its nice having a reporting data site in my town. Gives me something to do during boring weather. :-)

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I need some as well. Some seem to still be committed to the 3rd of January, give or take a day, to be interesting for some. Nobody is willing to bet too far in the longer ranges though. I guess the boring weather gives me a chance to catch up on my climatology stuff though. Its nice having a reporting data site in my town. Gives me something to do during boring weather. :-)

 

It looks pretty boring. The 00z Euro still has that storm system around the 3rd, but it's pretty much a cutoff with no cold air source and the precip never makes it to any area below freezing. Looks warmer than normal, turning colder than normal, turning warmer than normal during the next 10 days. 

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Larry Cosgrove had a post a little earlier this morning regarding the upcoming storm around Jan. 2-4.  He believes it is going to be a disturbance "from Northern Mexico into the Gulf Coast and then up and off the Atlantic shoreline."  He states some detailed facts to support his theory.  Says the Operational GFS isn't grabbing ahold of the pattern yet so the Ensembles need to be watched closely.  

 

If you don't follow Larry on FB or Twitter I would recommend it.  He's very thorough and always responds to what people post which is nice to see.  

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Larry Cosgrove had a post a little earlier this morning regarding the upcoming storm around Jan. 2-4. He believes it is going to be a disturbance "from Northern Mexico into the Gulf Coast and then up and off the Atlantic shoreline." He states some detailed facts to support his theory. Says the Operational GFS isn't grabbing ahold of the pattern yet so the Ensembles need to be watched closely.

If you don't follow Larry on FB or Twitter I would recommend it. He's very thorough and always responds to what people post which is nice to see.

Guy's got a pretty impressive track record for this year I would say. Usually from pretty decent range too while all the rest of us are scratching

our heads. Lol. Hope he's right, I'm ready for more snow and the models aren't being very helpful in that regard. I'll start following the guy now. Thanks for the suggestion.

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