Wx 24/7 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Latest RAP wants to bring a bit more moisture down with tmrw's clipper than originally advertised. May want to watch it closer. Sometimes these bring surprise light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Latest RAP wants to bring a bit more moisture down with tmrw's clipper than originally advertised. May want to watch it closer. Sometimes these bring surprise light snows. Noticed that earlier today as well. Somebody may pick up a decent little burst of snow out of it. Any thoughts about anything on new years day? With the models all being pretty shaky lately I know its hard to tell but just wanted to hear what y'all thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Noticed that earlier today as well. Somebody may pick up a decent little burst of snow out of it. Any thoughts about anything on new years day? With the models all being pretty shaky lately I know its hard to tell but just wanted to hear what y'all thought. 12z GFS is going for a pretty big southern storm on the 2nd. The GFS ensembles have had something from time to time as well. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 It has been snowing off and on here today. All of the 12z guidance has a storm system over the SW by hour 240 (Jan 2nd morning) The GGEM/GFS have similar looking height fields while the Euro has more of a cutoff/farther south look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Awesome. Probably what I was seeing a couple of days ago, they just slowed it down a little bit. Maybe we can get lucky but I'my not going to bet on anything for awhile til its in progress. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 It has been snowing off and on here today. All of the 12z guidance has a storm system over the SW by hour 240 (Jan 2nd morning) The GGEM/GFS have similar looking height fields while the Euro has more of a cutoff/farther south look. Wow, I just checked it out and if that verifies, it would be awesome. I just looked at the wind patterns before I asked that the other day thinking that there is no way that low could make it through totally dry. I guess gfs finally agreed with me. :-) The other nice looking thing is that it doesn't have us torching for 3 days before it gets here. If it happened, could be a snow that stays on for days and days around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Wow, I just checked it out and if that verifies, it would be awesome. I just looked at the wind patterns before I asked that the other day thinking that there is no way that low could make it through totally dry. I guess gfs finally agreed with me. :-) The other nice looking thing is that it doesn't have us torching for 3 days before it gets here. If it happened, could be a snow that stays on for days and days around here. The 12z Euro doesn't agree though Looks like the control run cuts it off, then drops it south. Still something to keep an eye on since a few runs ago it had a system phasing with the northern stream producing snow just east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 The 12z Euro doesn't agree though Looks like the control run cuts it off, then drops it south. Still something to keep an eye on since a few runs ago it had a system phasing with the northern stream producing snow just east of us. That's alright. I'm not putting a lot of hope in any of them at the moment. They all want to keep the cold here though and that's good for now. Meanwhile watching a nice snow shower out my door at work. :-) Cheap consolation prize for the crap that happened over the weekend I suppose. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 You see the brutal cold building in over Canada as the runs progress? When/if that ejects south 3-4 weeks out it will be painfully cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Snowing pretty darn good outside here, is so awesome to see a few days before christmas and 46 degrees that day lol. Sticking on everything too! Very neat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Snowing pretty darn good outside here, is so awesome to see a few days before christmas and 46 degrees that day lol. Sticking on everything too! Very neat! Yeah. Its making me sing Christmas carols now. Lol. Can't help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Yeah. Its making me sing Christmas carols now. Lol. Can't help it. Yea it definately helps to stick me in that holiday mood lol. Gotta take advantage of this before the blowtorch wednesday bleh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 A couple videos I shot for those interested in how the ice played out in central OK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wx8CLbS4hM4&hd=1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48IGeR9Ns4o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Yea it definately helps to stick me in that holiday mood lol. Gotta take advantage of this before the blowtorch wednesday bleh lol Haha, you know your winter is off to good start when we call a degree above average a blowtorch. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Nice vids of the ice storm. Thankfully we didn't have a lot of wind which would bring more limbs down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Haha, you know your winter is off to good start when we call a degree above average a blowtorch. Lol Yep I have alot of adjusting to do here in arkansas lol. I dont think I have ever seen a christmas above 40(of course dont hold me to that as my memory is horrid lol). So far in all honesty it hasnt been too bad really with that 7" snow/sleet storm a few weeks ago. And yep agree with jomo, those vids were cool!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Enjoyed the ice videos! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Very cool ice storm vids. It is so beautiful, yet so dangerous at the same time! I guess that is all weather extremes. Looks quiet around here for a few days. Enjoy the break and Merry Christmas to you and yours!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Probly will not be on here for a few days so I just wanted to wish you all a Merry Christmas, have a safe and wonderful holiday guys/gals!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Probly will not be on here for a few days so I just wanted to wish you all a Merry Christmas, have a safe and wonderful holiday guys/gals!! Thank you. Same for me. I hope everybody has a very merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Looks like a boring next 10 days or so. The Euro doesn't know what to do with that energy over the SW in the day 7-10 range but if it remains cutoff, not much is going to happen. Northwest flow may prevail. The PV is forecast to elongate and it gets squeezed into N. America.. The AO continues to drop and is forecast to go negative. The PNA will go slightly positive to neutral. (the 12z Euro takes it back negative at the end of the 10 days), and the EPO will bounce between negative and positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Merry Christmas everyone! Lubbock's AFD was great..... FXUS64 KLUB 242106AFDLUBAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX306 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2013.DISCUSSION...TIS THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CHRISTMAS AND I AM AT THE HELMTO BRING YOU WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE METEOROLOGICAL REALM.IT TOOK QUITE A WHILE BUT THE SKIES FINALLY DID CLEAR...THE ROLLING PLAINS CLEARED OUT AND MANY DID CHEER.SNOW WAS STILL VISIBLE FROM OUR WEATHER SATELLITES ABOVE...THE PANHANDLES STILL COVERED WHILE WE ARE BARREN OF.UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ALOFTWITH ONLY A SLIGHT HINT TO OUR NORTH OF A VERY WEAK TROUGH.A SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINEAND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BLOWING AS A TANGIBLE SIGN.TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 60 FOR OUR AREAS HIGHSBUT SHORT-LIVED IT WILL BE AS A WORD TO THE WISE.A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BREEZY AND DRY WITH NO CHANCE OF THOSE PESKY SNOW SHOWERS.LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN A PART OF THE FORECAST AT HAND...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IF THIS WILL COVER THE LAND.SATURATION IN THE MODELS NEAR CHILDRESS LOOKS BESTWHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS GOOD AS YOU HEAD FURTHER WEST.MENTION OF FREEZING FOG SEEMS BEST WAY TO GOFOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE SNOW.COLD AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAYKEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER AND WARMER WEATHER AT BAY.TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...A BIT BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT UNSEASONABLE FOR OUR STATIONS.MY CO-WORKER HAS LOOKED AT THE FORECAST BEYOND CHRISTMAS NIGHTAND THERE LITTLE IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST IN SIGHT.STUCK BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EASTNO MAJOR IMPACTS TO AFFECT US TO SAY IN THE LEAST.WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL TRY TO MOVE SOUTH ON VARIOUS DAYSBUT TIMINGS ARE DIFFERENT WITH MINOR DELAYS.ON FRIDAY MORNING...ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ON WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.NO NEED FOR WARNING...WE SHOULD BE RIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK BLEAK.SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE ONE TIME THAT WE MAY SEE SOME SNOWBUT THE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.THE MOST OPTIMISTIC ECMWF HAS SNOW FLURRIES AT MOST...WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL THE MODELS COME CLOSE.TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S IS NOTHING TO FEAR.THE INHERITED FORECAST AND GRIDS ARE IN GREAT CONDITION...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED AND WE HOPE IT COMES TO FRUITION.ANOTHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CHRISTMAS EVE IS SENT...WE HOPE IT WAS CLEAR AND YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT IT MEANT.TRADITIONS ARE IMPORTANT AND I DON/T WANT TO ANNOYBUT I LOVE WHAT I DO AND THIS BRINGS ME GREAT JOY.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS HERE EVERY HOUR OF EVERY DAYIN CASE THE WEATHER TURNS FOUL...NASTY...IS BORING OR GRAY.AS THE NEXT SHIFT COMES IN AND OUR SHIFT END IS IN SIGHT...HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL...AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT.JORDAN/CHARBONEAU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 That was the best Christmas eve afd I have ever read. Lol. I hope everybody is having a very merry Christmas and a great day of family and fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Wow that was definately an awesome read and what they did there!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Very funny! I saw someone posted that on Facebook. Is everyone as stuffed as I am. LOL!!! Now I need some winter weather to track. Looks boring through the weekend. Guess I will have to peg all my hopes on the long range and the fantasy winter storms. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Very funny! I saw someone posted that on Facebook. Is everyone as stuffed as I am. LOL!!! Now I need some winter weather to track. Looks boring through the weekend. Guess I will have to peg all my hopes on the long range and the fantasy winter storms. Merry Christmas! I need some as well. Some seem to still be committed to the 3rd of January, give or take a day, to be interesting for some. Nobody is willing to bet too far in the longer ranges though. I guess the boring weather gives me a chance to catch up on my climatology stuff though. Its nice having a reporting data site in my town. Gives me something to do during boring weather. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I need some as well. Some seem to still be committed to the 3rd of January, give or take a day, to be interesting for some. Nobody is willing to bet too far in the longer ranges though. I guess the boring weather gives me a chance to catch up on my climatology stuff though. Its nice having a reporting data site in my town. Gives me something to do during boring weather. :-) It looks pretty boring. The 00z Euro still has that storm system around the 3rd, but it's pretty much a cutoff with no cold air source and the precip never makes it to any area below freezing. Looks warmer than normal, turning colder than normal, turning warmer than normal during the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The GFS still has a system in the vacinity of Jan.1-2. Will probably warrant enough attention to keep an eye on it. Funny to see Memphis getting more snow than us on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Larry Cosgrove had a post a little earlier this morning regarding the upcoming storm around Jan. 2-4. He believes it is going to be a disturbance "from Northern Mexico into the Gulf Coast and then up and off the Atlantic shoreline." He states some detailed facts to support his theory. Says the Operational GFS isn't grabbing ahold of the pattern yet so the Ensembles need to be watched closely. If you don't follow Larry on FB or Twitter I would recommend it. He's very thorough and always responds to what people post which is nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Larry Cosgrove had a post a little earlier this morning regarding the upcoming storm around Jan. 2-4. He believes it is going to be a disturbance "from Northern Mexico into the Gulf Coast and then up and off the Atlantic shoreline." He states some detailed facts to support his theory. Says the Operational GFS isn't grabbing ahold of the pattern yet so the Ensembles need to be watched closely. If you don't follow Larry on FB or Twitter I would recommend it. He's very thorough and always responds to what people post which is nice to see. Guy's got a pretty impressive track record for this year I would say. Usually from pretty decent range too while all the rest of us are scratching our heads. Lol. Hope he's right, I'm ready for more snow and the models aren't being very helpful in that regard. I'll start following the guy now. Thanks for the suggestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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