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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

okie333

By okie333,
in Central/Western States

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
Posted

Am I the only who thinks Springfield is asleep at the switch? I am not trying to be critical because this is a tough forecast, but it appears that they aren't coordinating with surrounding offices. Kudos to Norman and Tulsa for their much more proactive approach to this event.

 

Springfield is lucky enough to have a bit more time to digest this and figure out how and why the models are struggling with the cold air.... and perhaps to watch what happens upstream in Oklahoma... before they need to make a decision.  Assuming the same thing that happened in our neck of the woods is happening in yours (the cold air WAY outperforming even the most aggressive models), I would guess warnings will be going up pretty soon there, too.       

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
Posted

Ice Storm Warning expanded a tier of counties further south in OKC metro.

 

OUN also updated the "Possible Ice Accumulations" map on their front page.  It now has a large 0.25" to 0.5" ice bullseye that includes OKC, Stillwater, Enid and Ponca City with Clinton, OK just outside the western boundary of the bullseye.  The southern boundary of the trace to 0.1" line now runs from roughly Lawton to Ada. 

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westhope84

westhope84

Posted
Posted

I've witnessing some impressive exaggeration coming from News 9 (OKC) regarding impending winter storms. I don't doubt that we see some 1' jackpot zones, though.

 

My possible naïve hope is that the devastation that occurred during the apocalyptic 12/07 event took out all of the weaker trees and branches. Perhaps that was recent enough to make a difference to the extent of damage we would see this go around if .75+ ice happens to accumulate.

 

Seriously? Could this get any more ugly?24271383_BG2.jpg

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
Posted

Since I"m in the office and can't peruse the data, can anyone give me thoughts on when precip will start in Tulsa, Stillwater and OKC?  three different areas but have family driving this afternoon/evening in all three.

 

It is hard to be sure because the precip is moving in from two different directions.  There is a band of rain to the south that is generally moving to the northeast but also slowly working north.  That band is probably north of Ardmore by now.  There is also a larger blob of rain to the southwest now crossing the Red River into Oklahoma and making a bead for all three cities.  On top of that, the radar seems to be filling in with lighter rain and/or drizzle in the area between those two bands and OKC.  I suspect that freezing drizzle could start any moment (if it hasn't started yet) in any of those three places but especially in OKC.  Steadier rain might show up in OKC in time to make the tail end of the evening rush a bit scary.  Stillwater and Tulsa probably won't have major worries for the evening rush (aside from freezing drizzle), but I am sure both places will be icing up by 8 pm, if not sooner.   

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
Posted

Seriously? Could this get any more ugly?24271383_BG2.jpg

 

This would seem a bit on the extreme side, but even OUN is going with ice accumulations of 0.25" to 0.5" in many of the same "jackpot" areas as the map above shows.  In other words, while I doubt there will be widespread accumulations in the 1" range, I bet some very unlucky locales near I-44 will get close to that, and I bet there WILL be widespread accumulations in the 0.5" range, which is plenty awful enough.    

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brettjrob

brettjrob

Posted
Posted

This would seem a bit on the extreme side, but even OUN is going with ice accumulations of 0.25" to 0.5" in many of the same "jackpot" areas as the map above shows.  In other words, while I doubt there will be widespread accumulations in the 1" range, I bet some very unlucky locales near I-44 will get close to that, and I bet there WILL be widespread accumulations in the 0.5" range, which is plenty awful enough.    

 

My thoughts right now are similar. I think the NWS is underplaying amounts until more certainty can be gleaned regarding location. I wouldn't be surprised if 0.75" accumulations are widespread over the metro, though. Temperatures do not look to be a limiting factor. We'll just have to see how any banding or embedded convection plays out.

 

For what little it's worth, the RAP seems to be trending southward with the QPF axis every run this afternoon. Between that and the temperature trends, I'm not going to be all that shocked if it's a corridor from Lawton-Ada that takes the hardest hit. Still doubt it's anything to sneeze at in the metro even in that scenario.

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wildweatherman179

wildweatherman179

Posted
Posted

Just saying, I will not ever go against my gut instinct again. I knew without a doubt that the models had it too far north and west but I didn't stick with what I thought and now look at what's going on. Dang it. I'm in the edge of the purple on that map above and there will likely be some rough stuff going on here in the next 24 hours. I hate ice. Hate it. Rant over...

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OUGrad05

OUGrad05

Posted
Posted

Channel 9 isn't known for exaggeration that I can recall, they miss it sometimes but they don't try to get attention with their weather predictions...so I find it somewhat concerning...in many cases SPC/NWS can be a bit conservative in rapidly changing environments like this...I hope 9 is wrong because an inch of ice just destroys my holiday weekend but man my guess is they'll not be too far off :(

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brettjrob

brettjrob

Posted
Posted

NWS OUN updated the ISW with more aggressive wording:

 


... Ice Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am CST Sunday...

An Ice Storm Warning remains in effect until 6 am CST Sunday.

* Main impact: widespread freezing rain will develop early this
evening and continue into Saturday. Widespread ice accumulations
of one-half inch will be possible across portions of western...
central and north-central Oklahoma. Higher ice totals will be
possible across central Oklahoma... including the okc Metro. This
ice will accumulate mainly on trees and powerlines and result in
the development of slick bridges... overpasses and walkways. Power
outages are expected.

* Other impacts: freezing rain and rain will change to snow late
Saturday afternoon or evening. Accumulation of 4 to 6 inches
will be possible across northwest Oklahoma with lighter amounts
farther south and east.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not travel in icy conditions. Be sure you can take care of
yourself and your family if you lose electrical power. Watch out
for falling trees... limbs and power lines.

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NJ_Ken

NJ_Ken

Posted
Posted

Freezing rain started around 5:30 pm in downtown OKC, and probably a half hour later on the north side of town where I live. As brettjrobb said, there was no period of drizzle. It went right to a steady light rain. So far, it is not freezing on roads (at least not on the roads I took home), but everything else is starting to get glazed. Temperature is 29 F.

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