Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS looks warm... maybe too warm? I am not wishing an ice storm on anyone, but it doesn't look right to me. Temps tomorrow morning at 60º here at 7 a.m. I don't think so. Hmm... ICT just expanded their Winter Storm Watch to cover all of their SE KS counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 00z GFS is a bit colder farther south and east. The ejection of the system has a similar track at the end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The freezing rain accumulation on this 00z GFS map really picked up from the 18z GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Oooh what do i see, wait nothing nvm lol. It is edging closer to here on those maps. Not sure if I want any ice though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 00z Euro is coming in colder and farther south. That's pretty interesting that the NAM/Euro came in colder as they both have the higher resolution and should be able to capture the cold air better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This is getting interesting now that the system has been better sampled and the models are handling the potency of the cold air involved. The decent snows are getting closer and closer to the Tulsa metro area after the gnarly ice finishes up. Let's go, snow. Maybe we can bump this thing another 50 miles southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Thats probly all it would take is a 50 mile jog southeast and its gonna get icy here as well probly, Im not sure as I cant read or understand the models like all you guys/gals can. So whats that 2 models now that have jogged south some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Thats probly all it would take is a 50 mile jog southeast and its gonna get icy here as well probly, Im not sure as I cant read or understand the models like all you guys/gals can. So whats that 2 models now that have jogged south some? Still rain for you. On the edge of the ice for me now. Probably snow from central/northern OK into SE KS into NW MO as the system ejects out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I guess time will tell. One or two degrees will make a massive difference. Time to start watch the radar and the thermometer. Okay, it may be a bit too early still yet... but later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 According to OUN's morning AFD, not only are the models trending colder, but so far actual temps this morning are colder than depicted on the models. Tonight might just end up being an icier night for more of us than we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It appears to me that TSA has a better handle on this than does SGF. Here's the ice map from Tulsa this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It is surprisingly cold here in Central OK this morning. Even as of late last night, I don't think any forecast had us getting below freezing here until maybe later tonight and then only very briefly and just barely. According to my car thermometer (which is surprisingly accurate), it is 29 F right now and that matches up well with the official numbers from Will Rogers (which is on the south side of OKC at 30 F) and Wiley Post (which is on the north side of town at 27 F). It doesn't appear that there is any organized precip anywhere particularly close to us at the moment, but that stuff to our southwest might just be here in time to make the evening rush more interesting than expected. EDIT: For a cold front that we've all been disappointed in (based on what we thought we would be getting a week ago), it has packed quite a punch down here. These are temperature/dewpoints at Wiley Post airport, which is on the north side of Oklahoma City over the past 6 hours: 3 am: 55 F/50 F 4 am: 37 F/30 F 5 am: 32 F/24 F 6 am: 29 F/24 F 7 am: 28 F/23 F 8 am: 27 F/20 F 9 am: 26 F/18 F Other reporting stations in Central OK are reporting similar numbers. The forecast called for temperatures no lower than 34 F today and, perhaps, just touching 32 F tonight before warming so we've definitely out-performed that by quite a bit. Given the thick cloud cover and proximity to the winter solstice, I don't think the sun is going to be able to do much to bump these temperatures today so we will have to wait and see if the storm can bring back enough warm air to overcome what seems to me to be a much stronger cold push than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ice Storm Warnings are being posted for Tulsa counties now. The models did not handle to cold air at all. We have been sitting below freezing for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ice Storm Warnings are being posted for Tulsa counties now. The models did not handle to cold air at all. We have been sitting below freezing for quite some time. OUN added winter storm watches one row of counties further south so, as of a couple of hours ago, OKC is now in the watch area (but Norman is still not). I hate to say it (and I hope I am wrong), but they may still have more catching up to do because down here the cold air has (at least as far as my novice eyes can see) far outperformed what was depicted on any of the models. All of Central OK is now in the upper 20s F with dewpoints in the lower 20s or high 10s F, and, at least as of the 9 am updates, temperatures and dewpoints were continuing to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ken, I was extremely surprised to see the temps so cold as well. The cold front just pushed through Benton County in NWA (far NW county) and the temp dropped 18 degrees in Siloam Springs in 1 hour. Pretty impressive. I'm not sure if the cold air can push through enough and hold on in my area. The Ozark Mountains always throw a huge stop sign to the cold air. Then it finally oozes on through. WAA may win the battle over cold temps here but it sounds like a nasty ice storm could be taking shape just north and west of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ken, I was extremely surprised to see the temps so cold as well. The cold front just pushed through Benton County in NWA (far NW county) and the temp dropped 18 degrees in Siloam Springs in 1 hour. Pretty impressive. I'm not sure if the cold air can push through enough and hold on in my area. The Ozark Mountains always throw a huge stop sign to the cold air. Then it finally oozes on through. WAA may win the battle over cold temps here but it sounds like a nasty ice storm could be taking shape just north and west of me. I hope I am wrong, but I think that things might just be trending very ugly for quite a few of us who, as recently as last night, thought this was going to be a miss. EDIT: Air temperatures appear to have leveled off here in the upper 20s to around 30 F. Presumably, that is just the limited impact of the December sun working behind those clouds because dewpoints are still dropping so cold air is still advecting southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I'm guessing Ice Storm Warnings are coming for JoMo and SW Mo pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Warning coming shortly from OUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Someone in the metro is going to be seeing shades of December 2007 by this time tomorrow morning. Obviously north and west sides are favored, but I'm starting to think there's a fair chance it extends all the way down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I hope I am wrong, but I think that things might just be trending very ugly for quite a few of us who, as recently as last night, thought this was going to be a miss. EDIT: Air temperatures appear to have leveled off here in the upper 20s to around 30 F. Presumably, that is just the limited impact of the December sun working behind those clouds because dewpoints are still dropping so cold air is still advecting southward. I'm back in NJ visiting family so I'm late to the party on this one, but this looks pretty damn nasty and admittedly took me by surprise. Norman holding at 29F while the SREF mean had us in the upper 30s. The lowest member itself is like 33/34F currently. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1040 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SE OK THIS MORNING...WITH FREEZING LINE CURRENTLY RUNNING A LITTLE SE OF I-44. BASED ON LATEST NAM/HRRR...AND GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND NWLY SFC WINDS...EXPECT THE FREEZING LINE TO REMAIN ROUGHLY IN THE SAME PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS NE OK. AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NE OK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SURFACE TEMPS ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA...FROM OKFUSKEE COUNTY TO DELAWARE COUNTY...BUT STILL EXPECTING A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Someone in the metro is going to be seeing shades of December 2007 by this time tomorrow morning. Obviously north and west sides are favored, but I'm starting to think there's a fair chance it extends all the way down here. The RGEM which has done a remarkable job on ptypes all winter and nailed the last winter weather event in OK shows significant icing a decent distance south of I-44..the total liquid it shows falling here is near 40mm in some cases which is around 1.25-1.50 liquid...the latest HRRR also shows the RA/FZRA line at the southern edge of Cleveland county by 03-04z tonight and still has it moving south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I didnt expect to see temps this cold so fast. Its still dropping ever so slowly here, this morning at 6am it was 64 now its 37.5 out there. Is ok I dont want the ice anyhow you guys can have that crap if you want it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wow! Between the radar (which is really filling in to our southwest) and the temperatures (which are below freezing with dewpoints mostly in the teens across the entire OKC metro as of noon), this is rapidly starting to look like serious trouble. OUN did go over to ice storm warnings for all the counties in their former winter storm watch area, but that only covers roughly the area north of I-40. I have a feeling that those ice storm warnings may eventually be needed for at least one more tier of counties southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Am I the only who thinks Springfield is asleep at the switch? I am not trying to be critical because this is a tough forecast, but it appears that they aren't coordinating with surrounding offices. Kudos to Norman and Tulsa for their much more proactive approach to this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 17z HRRR precip type map for late tonight/early morning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I-44 is looking more and more like ground zero, with major problems extending a fair bit SE and NW from there. Very reminiscent of December 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I-44 is looking more and more like ground zero, with major problems extending a fair bit SE and NW from there. Very reminiscent of December 2007. I hope its not that bad, it was crippling...power outages for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah. Anywhere north of i40 is screwed at this point. Stupid models were way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I hope its not that bad, it was crippling...power outages for weeks. Well, for the hardest-hit areas in December 2007, a true repeat of that tonight is probably like a 90th-percentile worst-case scenario. That event had two different waves of training thunderstorms separated by almost 24 hours, making it pretty exceptional. Perhaps I should word it differently and say the area affected looks eerily reminiscent, while amounts are more likely to be 50-75% of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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