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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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This is getting interesting now that the system has been better sampled and the models are handling the potency of the cold air involved.

 

The decent snows are getting closer and closer to the Tulsa metro area after the gnarly ice finishes up. Let's go, snow. Maybe we can bump this thing another 50 miles southeast.

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Thats probly all it would take is a 50 mile jog southeast and its gonna get icy here as well probly, Im not sure as I cant read or understand the models like all you guys/gals can. So whats that 2 models now that have jogged south some?

 

Still rain for you. On the edge of the ice for me now. Probably snow from central/northern OK into SE KS into NW MO as the system ejects out.

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It is surprisingly cold here in Central OK this morning.  Even as of late last night, I don't think any forecast had us getting below freezing here until maybe later tonight and then only very briefly and just barely.  According to my car thermometer (which is surprisingly accurate), it is 29 F right now and that matches up well with the official numbers from Will Rogers (which is on the south side of OKC at 30 F) and Wiley Post (which is on the north side of town at 27 F).  It doesn't appear that there is any organized precip anywhere particularly close to us at the moment, but that stuff to our southwest might just be here in time to make the evening rush more interesting than expected.       

 

EDIT:  For a cold front that we've all been disappointed in (based on what we thought we would be getting a week ago), it has packed quite a punch down here.  These are temperature/dewpoints at Wiley Post airport, which is on the north side of Oklahoma City over the past 6 hours:

 

3 am:  55 F/50 F

4 am:  37 F/30 F

5 am:  32 F/24 F

6 am:  29 F/24 F

7 am:  28 F/23 F

8 am:  27 F/20 F

9 am:  26 F/18 F

 

Other reporting stations in Central OK are reporting similar numbers.  The forecast called for temperatures no lower than 34 F today and, perhaps, just touching 32 F tonight before warming so we've definitely out-performed that by quite a bit.  Given the thick cloud cover and proximity to the winter solstice, I don't think the sun is going to be able to do much to bump these temperatures today so we will have to wait and see if the storm can bring back enough warm air to overcome what seems to me to be a much stronger cold push than expected.   

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Ice Storm Warnings are being posted for Tulsa counties now.  The models did not handle to cold air at all.  We have been sitting below freezing for quite some time.

 

OUN added winter storm watches one row of counties further south so, as of a couple of hours ago, OKC is now in the watch area (but Norman is still not).  I hate to say it (and I hope I am wrong), but they may still have more catching up to do because down here the cold air has (at least as far as my novice eyes can see) far outperformed what was depicted on any of the models.  All of Central OK is now in the upper 20s F with dewpoints in the lower 20s or high 10s F, and, at least as of the 9 am updates, temperatures and dewpoints were continuing to drop.     

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Ken,

 

I was extremely surprised to see the temps so cold as well.  The cold front just pushed through Benton County in NWA (far NW county) and the temp dropped 18 degrees in Siloam Springs in 1 hour.  Pretty impressive.  I'm not sure if the cold air can push through enough and hold on in my area.  The Ozark Mountains always throw a huge stop sign to the cold air.  Then it finally oozes on through.  WAA may win the battle over cold temps here but it sounds like a nasty ice storm could be taking shape just north and west of me. 

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Ken,

 

I was extremely surprised to see the temps so cold as well.  The cold front just pushed through Benton County in NWA (far NW county) and the temp dropped 18 degrees in Siloam Springs in 1 hour.  Pretty impressive.  I'm not sure if the cold air can push through enough and hold on in my area.  The Ozark Mountains always throw a huge stop sign to the cold air.  Then it finally oozes on through.  WAA may win the battle over cold temps here but it sounds like a nasty ice storm could be taking shape just north and west of me. 

 

I hope I am wrong, but I think that things might just be trending very ugly for quite a few of us who, as recently as last night, thought this was going to be a miss. 

 

EDIT:  Air temperatures appear to have leveled off here in the upper 20s to around 30 F.  Presumably, that is just the limited impact of the December sun working behind those clouds because dewpoints are still dropping so cold air is still advecting southward. 

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I hope I am wrong, but I think that things might just be trending very ugly for quite a few of us who, as recently as last night, thought this was going to be a miss. 

 

EDIT:  Air temperatures appear to have leveled off here in the upper 20s to around 30 F.  Presumably, that is just the limited impact of the December sun working behind those clouds because dewpoints are still dropping so cold air is still advecting southward.

I'm back in NJ visiting family so I'm late to the party on this one, but this looks pretty damn nasty and admittedly took me by surprise. Norman holding at 29F while the SREF mean had us in the upper 30s. The lowest member itself is like 33/34F currently. Yikes.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

1040 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SE

OK THIS MORNING...WITH FREEZING LINE CURRENTLY

RUNNING A LITTLE SE OF I-44. BASED ON LATEST

NAM/HRRR...AND GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND NWLY

SFC WINDS...EXPECT THE FREEZING LINE TO REMAIN

ROUGHLY IN THE SAME PLACE INTO THE EVENING

HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN

COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH

PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME

HOURS ACROSS NE OK.

AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR

ALL OF NE OK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN

THE SURFACE TEMPS ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF THE

WARNING AREA...FROM OKFUSKEE COUNTY TO DELAWARE

COUNTY...BUT STILL EXPECTING A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT

ICE ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR.

 
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Someone in the metro is going to be seeing shades of December 2007 by this time tomorrow morning. Obviously north and west sides are favored, but I'm starting to think there's a fair chance it extends all the way down here.

 

 

The RGEM which has done a remarkable job on ptypes all winter and nailed the last winter weather event in OK shows significant icing a decent distance south of I-44..the total liquid it shows falling here is near 40mm in some cases which is around 1.25-1.50 liquid...the latest HRRR also shows the RA/FZRA line at the southern edge of Cleveland county by 03-04z tonight and still has it moving south.

 

gemreg12_PT.8.gif?t=1387564865

 

gemreg12_PT.9.gif?t=1387564865

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Wow!  Between the radar (which is really filling in to our southwest) and the temperatures (which are below freezing with dewpoints mostly in the teens across the entire OKC metro as of noon), this is rapidly starting to look like serious trouble.  OUN did go over to ice storm warnings for all the counties in their former winter storm watch area, but that only covers roughly the area north of I-40.  I have a feeling that those ice storm warnings may eventually be needed for at least one more tier of counties southward.         

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Am I the only who thinks Springfield is asleep at the switch? I am not trying to be critical because this is a tough forecast, but it appears that they aren't coordinating with surrounding offices. Kudos to Norman and Tulsa for their much more proactive approach to this event.

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I hope its not that bad, it was crippling...power outages for weeks.

 

Well, for the hardest-hit areas in December 2007, a true repeat of that tonight is probably like a 90th-percentile worst-case scenario. That event had two different waves of training thunderstorms separated by almost 24 hours, making it pretty exceptional. Perhaps I should word it differently and say the area affected looks eerily reminiscent, while amounts are more likely to be 50-75% of that.

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