NwWhiteOut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Any other year we'd be getting excited about the snowstorm the GFS would be showing here... but this year, the cold just isn't around... yet. The crappy thing that will probably happen is we will get the cold, but then we won't have any storm systems, then as the storm systems pick up, the cold will retreat. That seems about right. Yea this is my guess right now also as to what will happen. This could turn into the most boring winter season ever lol. I know one thing this is the warmest january I have ever seen in my life so far! Totally crazy, my weatherstation says just shy of 63 out there!!! Hell I even have a few windows open in the house today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 The models are flip-flopping like crazy. The 12z Euro has went back to more of a western trough, eastern ridge type of idea vs the 12z GFS which has an eastern trough, western ridge type of idea. This is kind of funny since last nights 00z runs, the GFS had the western trough, eastern ridge idea while the Euro had the western ridge, eastern trough. I like the western trough idea since that gives us our best shot of seeing snow. This is 240 on the 12z Euro, you can see the coldest of the air is in the west and central US: This is the 240 on the 12z GFS..... yeah they don't look very much alike. Both the models look to start breaking down the Alaskan vortex around day 7-8, which is good news for everyone in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This weather just plain sucks. I can't take this, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 This weather just plain sucks. I can't take this, lol. I couldnt agree more, this is winter not spring lol...its got me down! I want some damn snow....comeon crystal ball man make it snow or something allready ok lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Models of course struggle with low level arctic air, and the human forecaster can add lots of skill and value. Sometimes one needs to speed up even the fastest model at 24-36 hours, esp if weak over-running. From 48-60 hours simply go with the fastest model, not being too cute yet. The following is quite valid out to about 48-60 hours: Looking at the models this far out, all I would feel comfortable forecasting is arctic air towards the middle to end of the month. Remember, large, dense arctic highs originating in NW Canada/Alaska tend to slide very easily down the lee of the Rockies, outpacing forecast model's predictions of the surge of cold air. I would tend to hedge towards the battle zone setting up shop further south then you see in the model surface depictions 1-2 weeks out, especially if we get a massive arctic high in Alaska or the NW Territories of Canada. Just my two cents. It is also true that strong highs 1040-1050 should eventually slide south. However past Day 5 one does not necessary take the faster model or speed up any of them. Too many drivers are still in place other than just the cold dense air. A wave could develop up-stream and slow even an arctic front. The main trough could go somewhere other than the model shows. Heck, the blocking might fail in the first place. Past Day 5 pattern recognition can help the human add skill and value. Now once again within 36-60 hours, usually 48, the models start to converge on the main pattern drivers. At that point, one can focus on speeding up the low level arctic front. Hope this helps. Y'all have a great thread in a good sub-form! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's probably all my fault. I said if there wasn't a chance of snow, I'd rather have it warm than cold. It chased all the cold and chances for snow away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's probably all my fault. I said if there wasn't a chance of snow, I'd rather have it warm than cold. It chased all the cold and chances for snow away. Now why did you go and do that! You jinxed us all, shame on you lol! J/K man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 It's probably all my fault. I said if there wasn't a chance of snow, I'd rather have it warm than cold. It chased all the cold and chances for snow away. No hard feelings, as I sit here with my window open after washing the car earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 6, 2012 Share Posted January 6, 2012 Well I retract my statement and wish for cold in the winter! Now everything should turn around, right? I think the construction workers over in the tornado zone really like the warmer weather as well. They are getting a lot done since it's been warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Since the weather sucks all I have to add is GO HOGS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 So, only 11 more months until next winter! I wonder how that's looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 So, only 11 more months until next winter! I wonder how that's looking? Funny, lets just get through this boring one first. Or how bout we all move to alaska haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Funny, lets just get through this boring one first. Or how bout we all move to alaska haha yep, I'm saying I'm looking at next winter since this one looks to be a dud. I'd be happy to get an inch of snow, lol The Hawgs won the Cotton Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Id be happy just to see some freakin snowflakes falling! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Id be happy just to see some freakin snowflakes falling! lol We had a brief 5 mins of snowflakes back in November wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Ugly looking GFS tonite. No winter for the next 2 weeks if it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I think we're going the wrong way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Where you at JB? I'm needing some help here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Ugly looking GFS tonite. No winter for the next 2 weeks if it is correct. Yeah, the Alaska vortex disappears for few days then comes back and that's all she wrote. The ensembles may save us though as the Ensemble mean keeps the ridging up there but it isn't as strong as previous runs. The cold air stays around but it looks like the trough would be oriented over the east and we'd be on the western side of it with NW flow possible which isn't good for getting snow in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yeah that defin wouldnt be the best setup for us here. We just cant seem to break this pattern. Kinda like in a cold winter its hard to get any sustained warm weather - just the opposite this year. Until I see it all the talk of coming cold is just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 We had a brief 5 mins of snowflakes back in November wasn't it? I been writing it down and keeping track. Up here it snowed on december 6th 2am onwords, was just off and on snow showers and we got a dusting. December 22nd we had a quick 5 minute snow shower at night, december 23rd we had morning snow flurries for a bit and on december 26th early in the morning we had a quick snowshower that gave us a small coating. Thats it for here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Ugly looking GFS tonite. No winter for the next 2 weeks if it is correct. Man this is to depressing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Yeah that defin wouldnt be the best setup for us here. We just cant seem to break this pattern. Kinda like in a cold winter its hard to get any sustained warm weather - just the opposite this year. Until I see it all the talk of coming cold is just that. The cold does come, but doesn't stay long. It's more like shots of cold followed by warm ups. This is what the Euro Weeklies also show. The Euro will probably show a snowstorm tonight just to be spiteful, these models are evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On a side note its warm and snowless just about everywhere, my sister back home in south jersey said they had about a half inch so far and my friend in iowa has only had a few inches at best as well. Its just warm and boring everywhere it seems this season so far by what I'm hearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Awful they are indeed. Looking for better things by tomorrow hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 On a side note its warm and snowless just about everywhere, my sister back home in south jersey said they had about a half inch so far and my friend in iowa has only had a few inches at best as well. Its just warm and boring everywhere it seems this season so far by what I'm hearing Unless you live in west Texas or New Mexico, which have been cashing in, it's been pretty terrible for everywhere. I think Joplinmet said the least snow we've had here in Joplin was 2.5" in 2005? I mean, maybe something will change or we'll get one of those March snowstorms that last a day before it all melts off otherwise we are headed to break that. The snowcover in the US: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Awful they are indeed. Looking for better things by tomorrow hopefully. lol, I've been about as positive as I can be over the last few weeks, but it's like crack or something, there's always the next run that it might show something different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Unless you live in west Texas or New Mexico, which have been cashing in, it's been pretty terrible for everywhere. I think Joplinmet said the least snow we've had here in Joplin was 2.5" in 2005? I mean, maybe something will change or we'll get one of those March snowstorms that last a day before it all melts off otherwise we are headed to break that. Yep thats what his blog said 05. I guess things can change ya know, hell they do change on a dime out here anyways....Im trying to be positive but its kinda hard to do now lol Oh that snowcover map you posted is just bad! Wow unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Speaking of crack maybe we should just give some to mother nature and hope she just sneezes it back out, let there be snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 yeah, the 00z Euro was not very exciting. Rain followed by cold, followed by a warmup, followed by cold, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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