JoMo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 uh oh... 00z Euro....... coming back south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I had a suspicion the Euro would come back south due to models not handling the arctic air well combined with the complexity of the systems off of the coast that are just now coming into the realm of better sampling. We'll see what happens, but this could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Don't fall for it!! It's a trap!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The 06z GFS continued the southward trend with the system (map below), however, this morning shifted back north. The GEM model would have a nasty ice storm for parts of southern Kansas and W MO late Friday night into Saturday, before switching over to snow Saturday night. It is also the coldest model of the morning suite so far, with most areas not moving out of the upper 20s Gotta say, the EURO remains the most consistent model as it relates to this system....we will see what that says soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 12z Euro looks a little more icy across NW OK into southern and SE KS and probably near or just north of me Friday night into Saturday morning..... run still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Don't fall for it!! It's a trap!! Lol It was indeed a trap, as the 12z Euro went back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseyshorewxguy Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hello All. Visitor from the NYC Metro/Philadelphia forums. I am travelling to Kansas City on Friday, then driving to Lawrence Saturday morning for the Kansas-Georgetown game and then driving back from Lawrence to KC and flying out of MCI on Saturday night. I am reading about potential snow/sleet/freezing rain. Not familiar with climatology in east central mw/plains. Will I have any major issues based on current models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hello All. Visitor from the NYC Metro/Philadelphia forums. I am travelling to Kansas City on Friday, then driving to Lawrence Saturday morning for the Kansas-Georgetown game and then driving back from Lawrence to KC and flying out of MCI on Saturday night. I am reading about potential snow/sleet/freezing rain. Not familiar with climatology in east central mw/plains. Will I have any major issues based on current models? More than likely it won't get above freezing up that way. The rest will come down to how far north the precip makes it, and the track of the system. It does look like late Sat night into Sunday morning, there could possibly be a heavy band of snow moving through KC.... but even before that, there will be some kind of frozen precip possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hello All. Visitor from the NYC Metro/Philadelphia forums. I am travelling to Kansas City on Friday, then driving to Lawrence Saturday morning for the Kansas-Georgetown game and then driving back from Lawrence to KC and flying out of MCI on Saturday night. I am reading about potential snow/sleet/freezing rain. Not familiar with climatology in east central mw/plains. Will I have any major issues based on current models? I agree with JoMo's assessment. There will likely be frozen precip most of the day. The roads up there are hilly, especially if you get off the major highways. Given that road crews will have some time to pre-treat and the precip won't be especially heavy when you are wanting to leave, I would hesitantly say the roads should be driveable. That could all change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseyshorewxguy Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I agree with JoMo's assessment. There will likely be frozen precip most of the day. The roads up there are hilly, especially if you get off the major highways. Given that road crews will have some time to pre-treat and the precip won't be especially heavy when you are wanting to leave, I would hesitantly say the roads should be driveable. That could all change though. Thank you both. I am concerned about my drive from Lawrence to MCI on Saturday afternoon as well as my flight home as we have a family holiday party on Sunday. I may check in again tomorrow afternoon! What should I be rooting for in models--a south trend to keep it colder and dry? (and to give you guys snow) Is freezing rain a potential concern on the I-70 corridor from Lawrence to Kansas City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Less than a week ago we were excited about cold that would challenge 1983. No cold coming. Now it's heavy rain and thunderstorms with cold after the precip. Blah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I guess things could change but I doubt it, looks like things are changing for the worst as we head towards christmas in terms of the weather and temperatures down this way! Looks to be fairly warm on xmas eve and day now and lots of huge rain chances, bleh bleh and more bleh. Sorry guys it just brings me down this kinda weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The models are having some major issues. The Euro is very unstable and has been for a few days, even in the ensembles... there are big changes from one run to the next. Anyway, the 00z Euro brings across some possible "Christmas Miracle" snow to primarily SE KS, SW MO and extreme NE OK on Christmas day and evening. Just a day or two ago it looked like it was going to be in the 40's and 50's maybe? With the way things have been changing from run to run, I wouldn't bet on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The models are having some major issues. The Euro is very unstable and has been for a few days, even in the ensembles... there are big changes from one run to the next. Anyway, the 00z Euro brings across some possible "Christmas Miracle" snow to primarily SE KS, SW MO and extreme NE OK on Christmas day and evening. Just a day or two ago it looked like it was going to be in the 40's and 50's maybe? With the way things have been changing from run to run, I wouldn't bet on anything. Good maybe some kind of miracle will happen lol, I dont really care if it snows or not but dont want a warm xmas bleh. Doug sounds fairly certain on the track of it though. Someones gonna be dumped on somewhere it seems though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Good maybe some kind of miracle will happen lol, I dont really care if it snows or not but dont want a warm xmas bleh. Doug sounds fairly certain on the track of it though. Someones gonna be dumped on somewhere it seems though It's a different system from the one that's going to blast us with mostly rain... SE KS and West central MO have the best chance of seeing a couple inches of snow maybe with the storm this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 As it relates to the storm...SC and SE KS could be ground zero for some pretty serious icing, especially if the temperatures are colder than currently modeled. A pretty nasty band of snow moves across the area Saturday evening and night before moving NE of the area by mid-morning Sunday. Since I am based out of Wichita, this storm will be a blessing for our area. Since October 1st the area has had 3.65" of precip, with 3.05" of that coming during the month of October. So far this month, only a trace of precip at the reporting site. As an aside, its good to see a pattern where the Gulf finally is open for business. Hopefully everybody gets in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 It's a different system from the one that's going to blast us with mostly rain... SE KS and West central MO have the best chance of seeing a couple inches of snow maybe with the storm this weekend. eh sorry man, I read what you posted wrong. Im burnt out from work my appologies. I thought you were talking about the one this weekend. I need a vacation badly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 As it relates to the storm...SC and SE KS could be ground zero for some pretty serious icing, especially if the temperatures are colder than currently modeled. A pretty nasty band of snow moves across the area Saturday evening and night before moving NE of the area by mid-morning Sunday. Since I am based out of Wichita, this storm will be a blessing for our area. Since October 1st the area has had 3.65" of precip, with 3.05" of that coming during the month of October. So far this month, only a trace of precip at the reporting site. As an aside, its good to see a pattern where the Gulf finally is open for business. Hopefully everybody gets in on this one. 12z Euro looks like a better run for you when it comes to snowfall when compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 0z and 12z Euro seem to show lots of snow for Kansas. The GFS says there may be all 4 types of precip at Kansas City in the next few days. Any time there are 3-4 types of precip with one storm, I don't like it! I figure maybe the worst coefficient of friction you could get would be sleet on top of freezing rain, because sleet is like ball bearings. Or maybe just freezing rain with a skin of water on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 The 0z and 12z Euro seem to show lots of snow for Kansas. The GFS says there may be all 4 types of precip at Kansas City in the next few days. Any time there are 3-4 types of precip with one storm, I don't like it! I figure maybe the worst coefficient of friction you could get would be sleet on top of freezing rain, because sleet is like ball bearings. Or maybe just freezing rain with a skin of water on top. Freezing rain is the worst. A smooth sheet of ice provides very little traction. Not to mention the power outages and limbs and trees falling on cars, houses, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 JoMo, Anything exciting on the 10-15 day (or further) outlook? We need something to talk about and look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If I lived anywhere along and north of a Tulsa to Springfield line, I would be concerned about temps for a time late tomorrow through Saturday sometime. That freezing line is going to be tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If I lived anywhere along and north of a Tulsa to Springfield line, I would be concerned about temps for a time late tomorrow through Saturday sometime. That freezing line is going to be tricky. I was just noticing that on the 00z NAM. It's a little farther south with the 32 degree line with light precip occurring in the freezing air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 JoMo, Anything exciting on the 10-15 day (or further) outlook? We need something to talk about and look forward to. Not really, the models are still having issues so it's hard to find a system to lock onto that is showing up on all the models consistently. The -EPO will make a comeback though and the AO will relax to slightly positive levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 NAM has continued inching toward colder sfc temps for central and western OK overnight tomorrow, which could potentially result in some significant icing over a short period of time (06z-12z). Taken verbatim, much of the OKC metro would get in on that action according to the 00z NAM. It will be a fairly fascinating event to watch unfold; there's the potential for over 0.5" accumulations in some areas over a 6-hour period, which would then be followed by rapid melting during the late morning and afternoon Saturday. Not sure I've ever experienced that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Tulsa AFD update: THE 00Z NAM HAS THROWN A BIG CURVEBALL WITH RESPECT TO THE STORMSYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.IT NOW HOLDS THE COLDER AIR IN LONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHICH MAYRESULT IN MORE OF OUR AREA SEEING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZINGRAIN. IN ADDITION...IT TRACKS THE COMPACT UPPER LOW FURTHER TO THESOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN MOST OTHER MODELS...WHICH WOULD INCREASETHE SNOW THREAT IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING WERE IT TOVERIFY. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH ATTHIS POINT AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT ALL THENEW DATA BEFORE DETERMINING WHETHER AN EXPANSION OF THE WATCH INBOTH SPACE AND TIME IS NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Tulsa AFD update: Cue the freak out mode if the other models follow suit... or go back to sleep if the NAM is the lone wolf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Gotta make me hold on to hope til the last possible minute don't they? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GFS still keeps the 2m 0 C line northwest of the tight QPF gradient along I-44 for now. If this were an arctic front driven by a 1040 mb high coming down the Plains, the answer would be clear-cut: major ice storm. Given the synoptic setup, it's very unclear. Seems quite possible the GFS is still underforecasting the cold air near the surface, but to what extent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Not sure at this time but just realized that it puts me squarely in the ice zone now. Not very excited anymore. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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