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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Christmas is colder on the 12z Euro... It was around 50 last night across the area, now looks like it'll be upper 30's to low 40's thanks to a cold front.

For comparison sake, the 12z Euro did come south with the storm system and slowed it down. Pittsburg, KS in extreme SE KS got 1.2" last night and they get 9.4" this run.

Also the system is not yet within the Euro "120 hour" range where it nails systems down.

On that note, I was going to ask a question. I saw where someone posted the 'accuracy' numbers for the models recently and was wondering at what point do they start counting them as accurate or inaccurate? Does anyone know how that works? Also with that being said, I still maintain that the system will come further south over the coming days, but we will see what happens.

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I think this has got to be the warmest I ever felt it in my life in december blah!!!! This weather is totally insane! I probly better get use to that being where I am now lol. I just hope its at least cold on xmas!

 

As a lifelong New Jersey boy, I totally get where you are coming from.  Logically, I know that, in the winter, the occasional 60 F day is just as likely here as a snowstorm is, but that doesn't make it any easier to get used to.... especially with Christmas approaching.  lol.     

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On that note, I was going to ask a question. I saw where someone posted the 'accuracy' numbers for the models recently and was wondering at what point do they start counting them as accurate or inaccurate? Does anyone know how that works? Also with that being said, I still maintain that the system will come further south over the coming days, but we will see what happens.

 

Model verification stats? This shows the anomaly correlation for the last 31 days centered on the "120" hour (Day 5) for 500 MB heights. You want the number to be as close to 1 as possible. Not counting the non-major models.... The Euro is clearly superior as it has a score of 0.920. The Canadian (GGEM) and UKMET both have a score of 0.900 and the GFS is bringing up the rear at what looks like 0.895.

 

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

By hour "144" or Day 6... the scores fall to 0.854 for the Euro, 0.829 for the UKMET, 0.824 for the Canadian and 0.800 for the GFS. 

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As a lifelong New Jersey boy, I totally get where you are coming from.  Logically, I know that, in the winter, the occasional 60 F day is just as likely here as a snowstorm is, but that doesn't make it any easier to get used to.... especially with Christmas approaching.  lol.     

Thats my problem also, grew up in jersey as well lol. I got spoiled by the big time noreasters and snowstorms in the 80's man. Those were the days huh lol!!

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The long range continues to improve after a couple of bad runs. Signal for another storm around New Years on the Euro control. 

 

I don't think the ridge off the west coast is going anywhere for an extended period of time with these warm SST's not going anywhere.

 

warmpool.png

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I would have to agree. I know that not many people in this group like to get into longer than model range forecasts but I've catching a few hints that January looks to continue the promising pattern we are currently in for cold and snow. So many thought it would die off after December but I'm pretty sure they were wrong. Will be interesting to see if the southern storm track can become more dominant/powerful in the next few weeks.

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Afternoon Tulsa AFD:

 

MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE OPEN WAVE LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SECOND FRONT...WHICH COULD CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. A MIXTURE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN
LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP BECOMING
SLEET/SNOW THEN SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. QPF SIGNALS WITHIN THE MODELS
HAVE ALSO INCREASED DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
THUS...HAVE BUMPED UP ICE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.
EXACT LOCATIONS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPES STILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THOUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY TIME FRAME
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A CHANGE OF A DEGREE OR
TWO COULD MAKE QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP TYPES/AMOUNTS AND THESE
DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
LATEST DATA COMES IN. TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH BEFORE THE PRECIP
MOVES OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN AS A COLD
RAIN.

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Another question. Could part of the weakening/eastward shift in the extremely cold air be attributed to the MJO transitioning to phase 4 over the last few days? I've been looking for a signal that could indicate why the models were so bullish with the air at the onset and backed off and pushed it east. This is all I could come up with. Any thoughts?

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Another question. Could part of the weakening/eastward shift in the extremely cold air be attributed to the MJO transitioning to phase 4 over the last few days? I've been looking for a signal that could indicate why the models were so bullish with the air at the onset and backed off and pushed it east. This is all I could come up with. Any thoughts?

Not sure, but probably more to do with the vortex over Canada lifting off to the northeast and taking the coldest air with it. I looked at the Euro Weeklies. They still have the ridge S of Alaska through most of January.

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Thats my problem also, grew up in jersey as well lol. I got spoiled by the big time noreasters and snowstorms in the 80's man. Those were the days huh lol!!

Another Jersey guy here, but I've gotta say... I loved the blazing sun and 68F today. I must have adjusted well here. Arctic blast, snow/ice storm, then warm up -- sounds ideal to me. :P

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Yeah pretty much. Fascinating looking at the end of the Euro as it forces Arctic air south due to strong height rises into Canada. Also looks to rebuild the -EPO. Should be an interesting look on the ensembles later this afternoon.

Let's hope we don't get into a pattern where arctic is always 10 days out but never happens. That's what we've had the last 2 years but this year seems different.

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Let's hope we don't get into a pattern where arctic is always 10 days out but never happens. That's what we've had the last 2 years but this year seems different.

 

Yeah the 12z Euro Ensemble mean looks generally cooler than normal to normal past day 10. I only received the temps out to hour 342 though and the upper air through 348.  The control run rebuilds Arctic air and pushes it in by the end of the month thanks to blocking pushing up into the Arctic. The ensemble mean goes back to the higher heights SW of Alaska... trough in the west, ridge in the east... look that it has had. Pretty much just flip a coin.......

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Afternoon Springfield discussion:

 

 

 

The 12Z medium range models have come into good agreement with the track
of the surface low and upper level trough along with the placement
of the band of heavy snow and the dry slot. The medium range
models place the heaviest snow just to the west and north of the
forecast area Saturday night into Sunday with the southern edge of
this system just clipping the far northern and western portions of
the forecast area. Looking at the long wave pattern, we think the
track the medium range models are showing is quite reasonable.
Wintry precipitation and accumulations will remain possible north
of Interstate 44 with little to none south. The heaviest
accumulations are expected to remain just north and west of the
area.

It is to be noted that this system has not made it on to the west
coast yet and will be better sampled by the upper level network
once it does. So, there is still some uncertainty on the exact
track of this system. If it tracks farther to the north very little
in the way of wintry precipitation will occur across the area and if
it tracks further south more wintry weather would then be
possible.
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