ouamber Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Christmas is colder on the 12z Euro... It was around 50 last night across the area, now looks like it'll be upper 30's to low 40's thanks to a cold front. For comparison sake, the 12z Euro did come south with the storm system and slowed it down. Pittsburg, KS in extreme SE KS got 1.2" last night and they get 9.4" this run. Also the system is not yet within the Euro "120 hour" range where it nails systems down. On that note, I was going to ask a question. I saw where someone posted the 'accuracy' numbers for the models recently and was wondering at what point do they start counting them as accurate or inaccurate? Does anyone know how that works? Also with that being said, I still maintain that the system will come further south over the coming days, but we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 JoMo, On the Euro is it an issue of the lack of cold air, the low tracks too far north, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think this has got to be the warmest I ever felt it in my life in december blah!!!! This weather is totally insane! I probly better get use to that being where I am now lol. I just hope its at least cold on xmas! As a lifelong New Jersey boy, I totally get where you are coming from. Logically, I know that, in the winter, the occasional 60 F day is just as likely here as a snowstorm is, but that doesn't make it any easier to get used to.... especially with Christmas approaching. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just move that 100 miles south now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On that note, I was going to ask a question. I saw where someone posted the 'accuracy' numbers for the models recently and was wondering at what point do they start counting them as accurate or inaccurate? Does anyone know how that works? Also with that being said, I still maintain that the system will come further south over the coming days, but we will see what happens. Model verification stats? This shows the anomaly correlation for the last 31 days centered on the "120" hour (Day 5) for 500 MB heights. You want the number to be as close to 1 as possible. Not counting the non-major models.... The Euro is clearly superior as it has a score of 0.920. The Canadian (GGEM) and UKMET both have a score of 0.900 and the GFS is bringing up the rear at what looks like 0.895. By hour "144" or Day 6... the scores fall to 0.854 for the Euro, 0.829 for the UKMET, 0.824 for the Canadian and 0.800 for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 JoMo, On the Euro is it an issue of the lack of cold air, the low tracks too far north, or both? Both but it will snow on the NW side of the system, depending on where it tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 As a lifelong New Jersey boy, I totally get where you are coming from. Logically, I know that, in the winter, the occasional 60 F day is just as likely here as a snowstorm is, but that doesn't make it any easier to get used to.... especially with Christmas approaching. lol. Thats my problem also, grew up in jersey as well lol. I got spoiled by the big time noreasters and snowstorms in the 80's man. Those were the days huh lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The long range continues to improve after a couple of bad runs. Signal for another storm around New Years on the Euro control. I don't think the ridge off the west coast is going anywhere for an extended period of time with these warm SST's not going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I would have to agree. I know that not many people in this group like to get into longer than model range forecasts but I've catching a few hints that January looks to continue the promising pattern we are currently in for cold and snow. So many thought it would die off after December but I'm pretty sure they were wrong. Will be interesting to see if the southern storm track can become more dominant/powerful in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Afternoon Tulsa AFD: MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGIONSATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE OPEN WAVE LOW OVER NORTHERNMEXICO LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. COLDER AIR LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATEDWITH THIS SECOND FRONT...WHICH COULD CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO AWINTRY MIX SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. A MIXTURE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAINLOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP BECOMINGSLEET/SNOW THEN SNOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY FOR NORTHEASTOKLAHOMA/FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. QPF SIGNALS WITHIN THE MODELSHAVE ALSO INCREASED DURING THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME.THUS...HAVE BUMPED UP ICE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY WITH SOME SNOWACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.EXACT LOCATIONS OF PRECIP AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPES STILL REMAINSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...THOUGH THE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY TIME FRAMELOOKS TO BE THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR WINTRY WEATHER ACROSSNORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A CHANGE OF A DEGREE ORTWO COULD MAKE QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP TYPES/AMOUNTS AND THESEDETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ASLATEST DATA COMES IN. TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTOWEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH BEFORE THE PRECIPMOVES OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN AS A COLDRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Another question. Could part of the weakening/eastward shift in the extremely cold air be attributed to the MJO transitioning to phase 4 over the last few days? I've been looking for a signal that could indicate why the models were so bullish with the air at the onset and backed off and pushed it east. This is all I could come up with. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Another question. Could part of the weakening/eastward shift in the extremely cold air be attributed to the MJO transitioning to phase 4 over the last few days? I've been looking for a signal that could indicate why the models were so bullish with the air at the onset and backed off and pushed it east. This is all I could come up with. Any thoughts? Not sure, but probably more to do with the vortex over Canada lifting off to the northeast and taking the coldest air with it. I looked at the Euro Weeklies. They still have the ridge S of Alaska through most of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Fox23 here in tulsa saying 60% chance of freezing rain friday night....lets hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well the 00z GFS and GGEM were a sloppy (rain/snow mix) mess. Best shot of snow in SE KS and SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Thats my problem also, grew up in jersey as well lol. I got spoiled by the big time noreasters and snowstorms in the 80's man. Those were the days huh lol!! Another Jersey guy here, but I've gotta say... I loved the blazing sun and 68F today. I must have adjusted well here. Arctic blast, snow/ice storm, then warm up -- sounds ideal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Another Jersey guy here, but I've gotta say... I loved the blazing sun and 68F today. I must have adjusted well here. Arctic blast, snow/ice storm, then warm up -- sounds ideal to me. Its crazy weather lol!!! Was 64 here today, I dont mind though. I just hope its cold on xmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 00z Euro tilts a bit sooner so snow band moved north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well I don't want to wave the white flag...BUT...it's not looking good. Maybe some ice or snowflakes..onto next storm:/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 We need it to really stay closed around the Arklatex area and then go negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 12z GFS goes way west..... The freezing rain in SE KS and SW MO (and back in SW OK) on the 96 hour panel is new though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well I don't want to wave the white flag...BUT...it's not looking good. Maybe some ice or snowflakes..onto next storm:/ Start waving... Move along, nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 OK, I surrender. All hope is lost. On to January, which was my thought initially but I let my hopes get in the way of reasonable thought. Lol. Moving on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah pretty much. Fascinating looking at the end of the Euro as it forces Arctic air south due to strong height rises into Canada. Also looks to rebuild the -EPO. Should be an interesting look on the ensembles later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah pretty much. Fascinating looking at the end of the Euro as it forces Arctic air south due to strong height rises into Canada. Also looks to rebuild the -EPO. Should be an interesting look on the ensembles later this afternoon. Let's hope we don't get into a pattern where arctic is always 10 days out but never happens. That's what we've had the last 2 years but this year seems different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I think it's way too early to wave the proverbial flag. We've all experienced last-minute surprises when it comes to winter weather around here. Expect nothing and hope for the best. I'm learning to manage my expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Let's hope we don't get into a pattern where arctic is always 10 days out but never happens. That's what we've had the last 2 years but this year seems different. Yeah the 12z Euro Ensemble mean looks generally cooler than normal to normal past day 10. I only received the temps out to hour 342 though and the upper air through 348. The control run rebuilds Arctic air and pushes it in by the end of the month thanks to blocking pushing up into the Arctic. The ensemble mean goes back to the higher heights SW of Alaska... trough in the west, ridge in the east... look that it has had. Pretty much just flip a coin....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Afternoon Springfield discussion: The 12Z medium range models have come into good agreement with the trackof the surface low and upper level trough along with the placementof the band of heavy snow and the dry slot. The medium rangemodels place the heaviest snow just to the west and north of theforecast area Saturday night into Sunday with the southern edge ofthis system just clipping the far northern and western portions ofthe forecast area. Looking at the long wave pattern, we think thetrack the medium range models are showing is quite reasonable.Wintry precipitation and accumulations will remain possible northof Interstate 44 with little to none south. The heaviestaccumulations are expected to remain just north and west of thearea.It is to be noted that this system has not made it on to the westcoast yet and will be better sampled by the upper level networkonce it does. So, there is still some uncertainty on the exacttrack of this system. If it tracks farther to the north very littlein the way of wintry precipitation will occur across the area and ifit tracks further south more wintry weather would then bepossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well, NWS Tulsa decided that they didn't want to leave my area out of the fun yet. Showing some icing and some snow for me and parts of northwest Arkansas. A little hope is creeping back in. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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