JoMo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z GFS is still cutting the system off over the Baja area. Brings it out for a rainy Christmas Eve. Christmas might be chilly though. Boring after that. Edit: 12z GGEM looks more like the Euro from last night. As it digs energy into the backside of the southern system and gives it more of a negative tilt before it shears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Ya the Canadian looks like a freakish Ice Storn/Sleet storm for Oklahoma through middle/SW Missouri....Yuck! AND I mean YUCK!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z Euro looks like quite a mess with temps close. It's much closer to the GGEM than the GFS. Sharp northern cutoff. Most of the area would see frozen precip at some point. Heaviest band across N OK across SE KS into Western MO and points east where it spits out a general 6-8" of 'snow'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Interesting model runs this morning, with two distinct camps. The GFS remains suppressed and wallers the closed low off Baja California for multiple days, while the Euro and Canadian models have an overrunning scenario ahead of the same closed upper low. The GFS idea has some support from the ensembles, but to me, its not entirely clear why it pinches off. The Canadian and Euro models keep the system in phase with the polar jet stream as it moves across the area. In light of the same situation happening with the last major Arctic intrusion...I am inclined to go with the Euro and Canadian models...though slightly farther north based on the intrusion of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I am not trying to be a EURO cheerleader, but its performance has significantly outdone the GFS recently. Of course, so has basically every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Is the NAM in range yet to gt any ideas from it? It only goes out 84 hours so it may be too far out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Is the NAM in range yet to gt any ideas from it? It only goes out 84 hours so it may be too far out still. Nah, it's way out of NAM range. The 18z GFS sped it up.. Looks to get frozen in NW Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I am keeping a close eye on this system. With the potential to disrupt holiday plans along with other plans next weekend, I hope we don't get ice here in Tulsa. Good news is, that at 6 or 7 days out, it's going to change a lot the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 00z GFS has a winter storm.....I would want to lock this in.... The most snow is actually over central and southern OK... but this is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That would work for where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 LOCK IT IN NOW!!!! Although the Canadian went waay north on the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 LOCK IT IN NOW!!!! Although the Canadian went waay north on the 00z. I hope we can soon. I hope it makes it to OK, AR and MO and spins here for 3 days before ejecting east. I just don't want any ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 00z Euro says it's going north as well. NW OK, Central KS, NW MO gets frozen precip. It's going to depend on when that energy phases in and where the system is at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 00z Euro says it's going north as well. NW OK, Central KS, NW MO gets frozen precip. It's going to depend on when that energy phases in and where the system is at the time. Also the amount of cold air the system has to work with. The latest Euro run was warmer by comparison...bringing a potentially significant icing event into southern Kansas just using the 2M temps verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So basically, the GGEM and Euro against GFS...Again. Freak! When the others said yes, GFS says No..now the other two say no, and GFS says yes! Grrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lol. I was looking back to the last storm at some things I kept and it looks like we are seeing a similar progression out of the models that we saw last time. At the same time I also noticed that by around 84 hours out, the GFS, which was considered an outlier, had nailed the system down near perfectly only making small movements afterwards. I said all that to say that if things follow the progression that I think they will, I think we may all be in for another surprise at the end of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's still a long way away. It's going to depend on how far east the system over the southwest is by the time more energy phases into the backside of it. The GGEM/Euro are farther west when this happens while the GFS is farther east. There will be a deformation zone on the NW side of the system due to the tilt and that's where the snow will be. The system will shear out as a stronger system to the north crushes it though. Looks like 50's for Christmas this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This is really going to be a NOW-casting event! The problem is millions of ppl could be affected by this storm on such a busy travel weekend! I would hate to be a met or work for the NWS...you want ppl to be prepared but the models are far from a similar solution..YIKES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 00z Euro ensembles are not that bad on Day 11-15. Temps generally cooler than normal to normal until the 28th. Then from there generally normal to slightly above normal. The control run actually drops more Arctic air into the west and central US on Day 15 as it drops a large trough down due to the ridge off the west coast reestablishing itself and higher heights building west and SW of Alaska once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 12Z GFS has the 996mb low moving right over the Arklatex area. This signature usually creates some of Oklahoma's biggest snowstorms. Temps are going to be the issue, but this does have the looks of February 2011...if only the arctic air could arrive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah, it's a pretty good track... with a lack of cold air... Most the snow would fall from SW MO on north. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 We are still 6 days out so there is plenty of time for the finer details to (hopefully) break our way... of course there is also plenty of time for the finer details to break poorly, too. I am going to paraphrase Bart Simpson here: "If TV has taught me anything, it's that miracles always happen to [snow-loving, adult] kids at Christmas." Well, I am on board for a Christmas miracle in the Southern Plains just like in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It is extremely cold in AK and NW Canada so the arctic air is there. Temps are currently -20 to -30 F. We just need a repeat of the last plunge but that doesn't appear as likely as it did 3-4 days ago. I know the last few runs have pushed the coldest air into eastern Canada. Nothing too exciting regarding super cold until H372 on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 12Z GFS has the 996mb low moving right over the Arklatex area. This signature usually creates some of Oklahoma's biggest snowstorms. Temps are going to be the issue, but this does have the looks of February 2011...if only the arctic air could arrive! Yup! I'm very excited now. Especially if the low deepens as its crossing the red river. I have a lot of hope for this one now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z Euro is still farther north. A little cooler though this run so a bit farther south. A lot of precipitation.... Kansas City gets over a foot of 'snow'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think this has got to be the warmest I ever felt it in my life in december blah!!!! This weather is totally insane! I probly better get use to that being where I am now lol. I just hope its at least cold on xmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yes, the Euro has been the most consistent with taking the low across SE OK..which pushes the biggest snow into NW OK/SC KS..and points NE..what a bummer. The Euro really is the best model....blah.. Over 2 inches of cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm just going to consider the 1st and 2nd runs of the day misses and hope for better this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Christmas is colder on the 12z Euro... It was around 50 last night across the area, now looks like it'll be upper 30's to low 40's thanks to a cold front. For comparison sake, the 12z Euro did come south with the storm system and slowed it down. Pittsburg, KS in extreme SE KS got 1.2" last night and they get 9.4" this run. Also the system is not yet within the Euro "120 hour" range where it nails systems down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.