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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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12z GFS is still cutting the system off over the Baja area. Brings it out for a rainy Christmas Eve. Christmas might be chilly though. Boring after that.

 

Edit: 12z GGEM looks more like the Euro from last night. As it digs energy into the backside of the southern system and gives it more of a negative tilt before it shears out. 

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12z Euro looks like quite a mess with temps close. It's much closer to the GGEM than the GFS. Sharp northern cutoff. Most of the area would see frozen precip at some point. Heaviest band across N OK across SE KS into Western MO and points east where it spits out a general 6-8" of 'snow'. 

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Interesting model runs this morning, with two distinct camps. The GFS remains suppressed and wallers the closed low off Baja California for multiple days, while the Euro and Canadian models have an overrunning scenario ahead of the same closed upper low. The GFS idea has some support from the ensembles, but to me, its not entirely clear why it pinches off. The Canadian and Euro models keep the system in phase with the polar jet stream as it moves across the area. 

 

In light of the same situation happening with the last major Arctic intrusion...I am inclined to go with the Euro and Canadian models...though slightly farther north based on the intrusion of cold air. 

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I am keeping a close eye on this system.  With the potential to disrupt holiday plans along with other plans next weekend, I hope we don't get ice here in Tulsa.  Good news is, that at 6 or 7 days out, it's going to change a lot the next few days.

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00z Euro says it's going north as well. NW OK, Central KS, NW MO gets frozen precip.

 

It's going to depend on when that energy phases in and where the system is at the time. 

 

Also the amount of cold air the system has to work with. The latest Euro run was warmer by comparison...bringing a potentially significant icing event into southern Kansas just using the 2M temps verbatim. 

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Lol. I was looking back to the last storm at some things I kept and it looks like we are seeing a similar progression out of the models that we saw last time. At the same time I also noticed that by around 84 hours out, the GFS, which was considered an outlier, had nailed the system down near perfectly only making small movements afterwards. I said all that to say that if things follow the progression that I think they will, I think we may all be in for another surprise at the end of this week.

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It's still a long way away.

 

It's going to depend on how far east the system over the southwest is by the time more energy phases into the backside of it. The GGEM/Euro are farther west when this happens while the GFS is farther east. There will be a deformation zone on the NW side of the system due to the tilt and that's where the snow will be. The system will shear out as a stronger system to the north crushes it though. 

 

Looks like 50's for Christmas this run.

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This is really going to be a NOW-casting event! The problem is millions of ppl could be affected by this storm on such a busy travel weekend! I would hate to be a met or work for the NWS...you want ppl to be prepared but the models are far from a similar solution..YIKES!

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00z Euro ensembles are not that bad on Day 11-15. Temps generally cooler than normal to normal until the 28th. Then from there generally normal to slightly above normal. The control run actually drops more Arctic air into the west and central US on Day 15 as it drops a large trough down due to the ridge off the west coast reestablishing itself and higher heights building west and SW of Alaska once again.

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We are still 6 days out so there is plenty of time for the finer details to (hopefully) break our way... of course there is also plenty of time for the finer details to break poorly, too.  I am going to paraphrase Bart Simpson here:  "If TV has taught me anything, it's that miracles always happen to [snow-loving, adult] kids at Christmas."  Well, I am on board for a Christmas miracle in the Southern Plains just like in 2009.  :santa:       

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It is extremely cold in AK and NW Canada so the arctic air is there. Temps are currently -20 to -30 F. We just need a repeat of the last plunge but that doesn't appear as likely as it did 3-4 days ago.

I know the last few runs have pushed the coldest air into eastern Canada.

Nothing too exciting regarding super cold until H372 on the 12z GFS

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The 12Z GFS has the 996mb low moving right over the Arklatex area. This signature usually creates some of Oklahoma's biggest snowstorms. Temps are going to be the issue, but this does have the looks of February 2011...if only the arctic air could arrive!

Yup! I'm very excited now. Especially if the low deepens as its crossing the red river. I have a lot of hope for this one now!

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Christmas is colder on the 12z Euro... It was around 50 last night across the area, now looks like it'll be upper 30's to low 40's thanks to a cold front. 

 

For comparison sake, the 12z Euro did come south with the storm system and slowed it down. Pittsburg, KS in extreme SE KS got 1.2" last night and they get 9.4" this run. 

 

Also the system is not yet within the Euro "120 hour" range where it nails systems down. 

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