JoMo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Quite a prolonged and nasty nasty ice storm on the 00z GFS tonight for next week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Quite a prolonged and nasty nasty ice storm on the 00z GFS tonight for next week..... Let me guess, for northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 And there she blows: Poof!! Blizzard/Ice Storm/Snowstorm for the Southern Plains!!! Got to hand it to the GFS for being a good model to drink wine with:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 And there she blows: Poof!! Blizzard/Ice Storm/Snowstorm for the Southern Plains!!! Got to hand it to the GFS for being a good model to drink wine with:) That's my problem entirely! Increase alcohol intake, THEN run models. Lol. Must do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Let me guess, for northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas? Eventually. Works it's way from north to south. Lasts from at least Friday to Sunday. Mostly sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Eventually. Works it's way from north to south. Lasts from at least Friday to Sunday. Mostly sleet and freezing rain. I was afraid of that. I was hoping we wouldn't have to deal with that til after Christmas. Oh well. It will be an interesting week after all I guess. Lol. I remember the last time what happened after a 36 hour storm and I can't imagine a 3 day storm. It would be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yea...I suggest Moscato when watching the GFS models! It lightens the idea of the mother load of sleet and freezing rain that could occur next week! BTW: the freakin' cold front better hurry its lazy butt down here before we are all without power and tree damage everywhere (according to the GFS). I still think the cold will be here in time---just in time:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Moscato is a good choice indeed. Lets definitely hope that the rule of the models 'thinking' that the cold air is too slow applies and it shows up well in advance and in great depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Could someone post an image of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This is through 186 (my 192 panel is being slow)... It continues through the 204 panel, well light stuff continues through 216.... Most, if not all the snow over Missouri on here happens with the system tonight. This map will change again, but this is what this run of the GFS showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This is through 186 (my 192 panel is being slow)... It continues through the 204 panel, well light stuff continues through 216.... Most, if not all the snow over Missouri on here happens with the system tonight. This map will change again, but this is what this run of the GFS showed. Thanks, I think. Lol. That looks like 100 percent bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just compared the Canadian maps as well: Major ice storm from OK to Ohio and beyond!! YUCK!! Very similar to the GFS. I'm sure many ppl would like to forget what this 0z Run is trying to pull!! Ugh..gotta get that cold air down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The ECMWF continues the theme of a winter storm in the area next weekend. A cursory glance would suggest this looks like the last several systems, with deeper moisture to the east across the Ohio Valley. Cannot complain with all three global models having the signal of a storm in the day 7-9 timeframe. Will be an interesting week of watching for sure, especially with next weekend being a big travel/shopping weekend before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Does anyone have any Euro maps to show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 00z Euro has the same system in the SW as the 00z GFS does, but it's farther west. This run is warmer yet again and the system in the west ejects out to the west of our area before it quickly shears out. Better frozen chances would be NW of I-44 this run. The Arctic cold has decided to not show up as it slides off the the east in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wow! I continue to be in shock at the lack of cold air after what ALL the models were saying--coldest since '83..blah blah--This storm is looking more and more less significant that the one we just had. I'm hoping the models snap out of it and pour the cold air down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The temp gradient on the 06z GFS is just amazing on Friday. This system will be one to watch as we continue to get closer to the event, especially with its timing as related to the holiday travel and activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 12z GFS has more freezing rain and is farther south. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 12z GFS has more freezing rain and is farther south. Yuck. The trends continue to dictate that it is very important to watch the speed of the front as well as the associated disturbance. Timing and placement will have big impacts on eventual precip amounts as well as type. The 12z GFS is not a good run if you don't want ice. We need colder air to work in quicker in the upper levels. Stupid warm nose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The trends continue to dictate that it is very important to watch the speed of the front as well as the associated disturbance. Timing and placement will have big impacts on eventual precip amounts as well as type. The 12z GFS is not a good run if you don't want ice. We need colder air to work in quicker in the upper levels. Stupid warm nose... Yep, on to the Euro! Since the 18z GFS will trend towards whatever it shows anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Exactly JoMo! In the meantime, I am going to enjoy a couple of warmer days in the interim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well, at this moment I'm looking at at least a half inch of ice where I sit. Not good. Very glad the models have several days left to get a better grip on this thing and change that liquid back to snow. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 12z Euro has a slightly faster front.... Looks like the freezing line gets hung up over NW Arkansas and SE OK though. Produces a pretty wide swath of frozen precip north of the front, not overly heavy. For a minute there, it looked like energy was going to dig into the backside, then it all went to crap and sheared out. Edit: It looks like at the end of the run, the Pacific Ridge will want to nudge into Alaska and the NW territories and maybe even farther north...... Together with the vortex east of the Hudson Bay will create a favorable flow for Arctic air to plunge south after Christmas... The GFS is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Jomo, have you had a chance to look at the Euro Ensambles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Jomo, have you had a chance to look at the Euro Ensambles? Got distracted by the Army/Navy game. Yeah I did, nothing all that exciting.Generally cooler than normal to normal temps through the Day 11-15 timeframe. No fantasy snowstorms on the control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 0z GFS says, "Oops, did I tell you that there would be a snow/ice storm earlier?? Ha! My bad" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Yeah, what is up with that? Now watch the Euro will phase everything perfectly right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 lol, yeah the 00z GFS was awful.... The entire run was pretty awful. Such large changes from yesterday and even the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 00z Euro doesn't look like the 00z GFS with the system, but it is warmer yet again. Euro produces a swath of frozen across NW into N OK, S Central and SE KS into West Central MO and on NE from there. It does phase some energy into the system, Ozarkwx. before the northern stream crushes it. Pretty weird watching all that frigid air 'drain' east across Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Here's the relevant portion of the SGF morning discussion: As the upper level ridge moves over the region, a strong stormsystem will be digging south across the west coast and into oldMexico. Models are in good agreement with the timing of the systembut differ significantly in the precipitation coverage, type andamounts. Models do show precipitation beginning to move over theOzarks as early as Thursday afternoon. A cold front then movesthrough the region during the overnight hours into Friday morning.This is about 12 hours faster than the models had the cold front24 hours ago.At this point the models differ with the GFS moving all theprecipitation to the east of the area for Saturday with somereturning precipitation across southern Missouri Sunday. This isthe result of the model cutting off an upper low over thesouthwestern CONUS with a slower eastward progression over nextweekend. The ECMWF however is more progressive with the system. Itwould have the upper level trough kick energy out over the Plainsearly in the weekend with a surface low tracking from the RedRiver towards the Missouri boot heel. If this were to occur, it isa preferred track for heavy snow across the Ozarks. At this point,will continue to advertise snow for next weekend via a blend ofthe two models, but am not confident in either model solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.