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OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014


okie333

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Eventually. Works it's way from north to south. Lasts from at least Friday to Sunday. Mostly sleet and freezing rain.

I was afraid of that. I was hoping we wouldn't have to deal with that til after Christmas. Oh well. It will be an interesting week after all I guess. Lol. I remember the last time what happened after a 36 hour storm and I can't imagine a 3 day storm. It would be terrible.

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Yea...I suggest Moscato when watching the GFS models! It lightens the idea of the mother load of sleet and freezing rain that could occur next week! BTW: the freakin' cold front better hurry its lazy butt down here before we are all without power and tree damage everywhere (according to the GFS). I still think the cold will be here in time---just in time:)

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This is through 186 (my 192 panel is being slow)... It continues through the 204 panel, well light stuff continues through 216....

 

Most, if not all the snow over Missouri on here happens with the system tonight. This map will change again, but this is what this run of the GFS showed.

 

gfsdec13.png

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This is through 186 (my 192 panel is being slow)... It continues through the 204 panel, well light stuff continues through 216....

Most, if not all the snow over Missouri on here happens with the system tonight. This map will change again, but this is what this run of the GFS showed.

gfsdec13.png

Thanks, I think. Lol. That looks like 100 percent bad news.

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The ECMWF continues the theme of a winter storm in the area next weekend. A cursory glance would suggest this looks like the last several systems, with deeper moisture to the east across the Ohio Valley. Cannot complain with all three global models having the signal of a storm in the day 7-9 timeframe. Will be an interesting week of watching for sure, especially with next weekend being a big travel/shopping weekend before Christmas. 

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00z Euro has the same system in the SW as the 00z GFS does, but it's farther west. This run is warmer yet again and the system in the west ejects out to the west of our area before it quickly shears out. Better frozen chances would be NW of I-44 this run. The Arctic cold has decided to not show up as it slides off the the east in Canada. 

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Wow! I continue to be in shock at the lack of cold air after what ALL the models were saying--coldest since '83..blah blah--This storm is looking more and more less significant that the one we just had. I'm hoping the models snap out of it and pour the cold air down.

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12z GFS has more freezing rain and is farther south. Yuck. 

The trends continue to dictate that it is very important to watch the speed of the front as well as the associated disturbance. Timing and placement will have big impacts on eventual precip amounts as well as type. The 12z GFS is not a good run if you don't want ice. We need colder air to work in quicker in the upper levels. Stupid warm nose...

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The trends continue to dictate that it is very important to watch the speed of the front as well as the associated disturbance. Timing and placement will have big impacts on eventual precip amounts as well as type. The 12z GFS is not a good run if you don't want ice. We need colder air to work in quicker in the upper levels. Stupid warm nose...

 

Yep, on to the Euro! Since the 18z GFS will trend towards whatever it shows anyway. ;) 

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12z Euro has a slightly faster front.... Looks like the freezing line gets hung up over NW Arkansas and SE OK though. Produces a pretty wide swath of frozen precip north of the front, not overly heavy.

 

For a minute there, it looked like energy was going to dig into the backside, then it all went to crap and sheared out.

 

 

Edit: It looks like at the end of the run, the Pacific Ridge will want to nudge into Alaska and the NW territories and maybe even farther north...... Together with the vortex east of the Hudson Bay will create a favorable flow for Arctic air to plunge south after Christmas... The GFS is similar. 

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Jomo, have you had a chance to look at the Euro Ensambles?

 

 Got distracted by the Army/Navy game. Yeah I did, nothing all that exciting.Generally cooler than normal to normal temps through the Day 11-15 timeframe. No fantasy snowstorms on the control run. :(

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00z Euro doesn't look like the 00z GFS with the system, but it is warmer yet again. Euro produces a swath of frozen across NW into N OK, S Central and SE KS into West Central MO and on NE from there. It does phase some energy into the system, Ozarkwx. ;)  before the northern stream crushes it.

 

Pretty weird watching all that frigid air 'drain' east across Canada. 

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Here's the relevant portion of the SGF morning discussion:

 

As the upper level ridge moves over the region, a strong storm
system will be digging south across the west coast and into old
Mexico. Models are in good agreement with the timing of the system
but differ significantly in the precipitation coverage, type and
amounts. Models do show precipitation beginning to move over the
Ozarks as early as Thursday afternoon. A cold front then moves
through the region during the overnight hours into Friday morning.
This is about 12 hours faster than the models had the cold front
24 hours ago.

At this point the models differ with the GFS moving all the
precipitation to the east of the area for Saturday with some
returning precipitation across southern Missouri Sunday. This is
the result of the model cutting off an upper low over the
southwestern CONUS with a slower eastward progression over next
weekend. The ECMWF however is more progressive with the system. It
would have the upper level trough kick energy out over the Plains
early in the weekend with a surface low tracking from the Red
River towards the Missouri boot heel. If this were to occur, it is
a preferred track for heavy snow across the Ozarks. At this point,
will continue to advertise snow for next weekend via a blend of
the two models, but am not confident in either model solution.

 

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